PANAMA
Analyst
Marco Fernandez
Former Economic Advisor, Ministry of PlanningDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
New Fiscal Social Responsibility Law is approved by the Cabinet and submitted to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2024
On October 14, the Assembly received the proposal for a new fiscal law (LRSF in Spanish). This law is necessary to establish the deficit ceilings before enacting the 2025 budget (which we will comment on in an upcoming report). This new version of the LRSF includes three topics within the same bo...
The order of factors does affect the product: a defeat for the Executive in the Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024 · 1 response
This week, the Executive Branch presented its proposal for the 2025 national budget to the Legislative Branch, which was challenged on Thursday by the Budget Commission for three reasons: (1) it was not submitted on time, as the Constitution (Article 184) requires the proposal to be sent within t...
The challenges of the pension system and Mulino's path to reform
PANAMA · Report · 16 Sep 2024
President Mulino made several important announcements on Thursday, September 12, focusing on the path of the pension reform and placing strong emphasis on measures to improve the healthcare system, which could lead to political gains. On the pension system, Mulino confirmed a dialogue table start...
Mulino faces five challenges over the next eighteen months. Chapman taps the local market. The principle of specialty that Martinelli is pursuing may be a formidable obstacle to the path of reforms
PANAMA · Report · 26 Aug 2024 · 1 response
The Mulino administration has inherited five critical challenges that impact the future of the country's public finances and the economy as whole: 1) the revision of the sub-system of defined benefits of the state pension program; 2) a tax reform; 3) the decision about the copper mining project, ...
Fiscal accounts for the semester, Chapman’s financial proposals and their implications, Mulino’s announcements, and important appointments to come
PANAMA · Report · 12 Aug 2024 · 1 response
The fiscal accounts for the first semester, published last week, align with our projections for a Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) deficit close to 8% of semiannual GDP according to our estimates, reaching 3.96% of the projected GDP for the entire year. Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapm...
Growth and challenges ahead: the 2024-2025 economic forecast
PANAMA · Forecast · 26 Jul 2024
The economic outlook for 2024-2025 predicts real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, supported by major investments and recovering Canal operations. Key risks include the effects of the cessation of copper mining, high interest rates and fiscal deficits. Inflation will rise slightly, and...
Changing things so everything stays the same
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Jul 2024
After the May 1 elections, in which the independent caucus won the most seats (23/70) but not enough to form a majority (36/70), the selection of the National Assembly committees took place, which are crucial in shaping the country’s political agenda. The outcome was a resounding victory for the ...
The legislative election and the Mulino inaugural speech: we give the benefit of the doubt with mixed feelings
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2024 · 1 response
As anticipated, the ad-hoc coalition that favored the government of José Raúl Mulino won the Presidency of the Assembly with 44 votes by electing Dana Castañeda, a last-minute candidate, supported by Ricardo Martinelli directly and (his) Realizando Metas party as a group. This election confirms M...
Events of July 1: What Should We Anticipate?
PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024
Election of the Legislative Assembly's Directive Board Out of the 71 legislators established by the Constitution, only 70 will be present for the election of the directorate of the National Assembly (president, vice presidents, and general secretary). The candidate Zulay Rodríguez, who was defeat...