PANAMA
Analyst
Marco Fernandez
Former Economic Advisor, Ministry of PlanningDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Social unrest significantly impacts economic activity and weakens government leverage for future reforms
PANAMA · Report · 21 May 2025
Panama is navigating a complex landscape of social unrest, fiscal challenges, and policy shifts. The economy has been hit by month‑long strikes from SUNTRACS, teachers, and banana workers—driven by grievances over the pension law reform, the proposed reopening of the copper mine, ACP’s Río Indio ...
Upcoming Webinar - Panama in Focus: US Relations, Canal Strategy and Fiscal Discipline
PANAMA · Report · 12 May 2025
How will US-Panama relations and US tariffs impact Panama’s economy? What strategy will be applied to the Panama Canal amidst disruptions in global commerce? What's ahead for fiscal policy? Will Panama be able to navigate these challenges and protect its growth and investment grade? Please joi...
One step back and one step forward in boosting growth: the impact of U.S. tariffs and progress on the mine’s reopening
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Apr 2025
Assessing the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Panama’s economyThe U.S. administration suspended country-specific tariffs for 90 days starting April 9 but maintained the 10% baseline tariff on all goods and countries, including Panama. It remains unclear whether the U.S. government will ultima...
Logjam in Panama’s logistics sector: Hegseth’s visit, the Panama Ports audit, the Trans-Isthmian Railway purchase, and the new gas pipeline
PANAMA · Report · 11 Apr 2025
The visit of US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth to Panama, during which a memorandum of understanding and a joint declaration were signed, aims to strengthen security cooperation through joint exercises and a "cost-neutral" compensation mechanism for security services between the US and the Pa...
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Panama granted yesterday a safe-conduct to former President Ricardo Martinelli, which had been requested months earlier by the Government of Nicaragua but had not been accepted by Panama
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2025
Martinelli was initially an asylum seeker without safe-conduct. Yesterday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wisely granted him safe-conduct on "humanitarian" grounds. By handling the situation this way, the ministry strategically avoided inadvertently legitimizing Martinelli's claim of political a...
The Pension Reform allows both sides to claim victory, mining reactivation is the next step in the reform sequence, and the Supreme Court opens the door to resolving Ricardo Martinelli’s case
PANAMA · Report · 18 Mar 2025
The approval of the reform to the pension law can be considered a victory for all the opposing groups, except for the leftist unions and educators: the retirement age was not increased, the additional employer contribution was staggered, but the individual notional account system was maintained, ...
Large 2024 deficit (7.35% of GDP) and commitment of MEF to reduce it to less than the 4.0% ceiling of the Fiscal Law
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Feb 2025
Today, Minister Chapman presented the fiscal situation for the end of 2024 and perspectives for 2025. The deficit of the NFPS of 7.35% in 2024, above our estimate of 6.2% and above the 2.0% that the Fiscal Law established in the 2020 revision by Minister Alexander. The explanation is twofold: und...
The proposal for reforms to the CSS pension plan presented by the government was modified by the Labor Commission of the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday night
PANAMA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025 · 3 responses
Most legislators opposed the proposal due to the three-year increase in the retirement age, arguing that the Government failed to adjust the public sector payroll, thus placing the financial burden on the older population. This claim holds some truth: the number of new public employees increased ...
Mr. Trump and the Panama Canal: An “external shock” and the necessity of a three-phase strategy for Panama
PANAMA · Report · 21 Jan 2025
Panama has been in the international economic and political spotlight in recent weeks, particularly following President Donald Trump’s inaugural address on January 20: “We are going to take back the Canal that was unfairly taken from us by Panama and which imposes unjustly high tolls.” This re...