PANAMA
Analyst
Marco Fernandez
Former Economic Advisor, Ministry of PlanningDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Panama’s floating debt: scope, spillovers and solutions
PANAMA · Report · 17 Oct 2025
Floating debt has turned into an off-budget fiscal shock absorber. By our definition, recognized (meaning "accepted") accounts payable plus turnkey work-in-progress, it reached about US$5.2 bn (6% of GDP) in 2024, up by roughly US$3.1 bn, or 3.1 percentage points of GDP, since 2019. The build-up ...
Mixed results in GDP growth and IMAE. The ACP and Mulino could learn how to generate a positive climate for the new Canal projects from the previous Canal expansion.
PANAMA · Report · 26 Sep 2025
Panama’s economy slowed in Q2 2025, with GDP growth decelerating to 3.4% year on year from 5.2% in Q1. The main drag on growth came from the transportation sector, particularly the Panama Canal, where growth dropped sharply as the inter-annual boost from improved water levels faded and the ongoin...
Mixed messages from the IMF Article IV. The copper mine at Donoso faces an uncertain road ahead. Moody's credit review in November will determine the investment grade status of the sovereign rating.
PANAMA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
The IMF's latest Article IV report shows that Panama’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Growth is projected around 4%, potentially reaching 5% if large infrastructure projects move forward. A key IMF warning is the need to increase foreign direct investment and external financing t...
The Legislative Commissions are finally elected: uncertainty ahead. Steps in the right direction in fiscal results through June. Crossroads in ACP investment
PANAMA · Report · 19 Aug 2025
The Budget Commission of the Legislative Assembly was installed on Monday, August 11. It will be chaired by Deputy Eduardo Vásquez of Cambio Democrático (CD). Minister Chapman stated that the MEF will present the budget proposal to the Commission on Wednesday, August 20; Vásquez will open the dis...
The budget was published today, but the Legislature won’t analyze it until next week (hopefully)
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025 · 1 response
The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) presented its draft of the 2026 General State Budget to the plenary of the National Assembly last Wednesday. However, legislative committees have not yet been formed. This delay is due to internal disputes among political parties over control of key commi...
Short-term boost, long-term bets: Panama Canal projects and the economic outlook
PANAMA · Report · 07 Jul 2025
Panama’s economy posted strong 5.2% GDP growth in Q1 2025, driven primarily by the recovery of the Panama Canal and the expansion of Copa Airlines. The transportation sector alone contributed 56% of total growth, reflecting a rebound in toll revenues (+42.4% YoY) following the 2024 drought and th...
President Mulino´s State of the Union Speech: Messages to the voters and to the international markets
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025
Two hours after a surprise election of the Legislative Assembly's governing authorities, when a self-proclaimed opposition group to the government of José Raúl Mulino secured a narrow victory over Ricardo Martinelli's party, in a strange alliance with the deteriorating PRD, it was President Mulin...
The new leadership of the Legislative Assembly will be headed by a last-minute surprise candidate, Jorge Herrera, who defeated the favorite backed by José Raúl Mulino and Ricardo Martinelli and the PRD party.
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025
Context ahead of a key session in the Assembly Every year, on July 1st, the Legislative Assembly elects its presidents and vice presidents for a one-year term. The person who presides over the Assembly signs the laws issued by the State’s bodies, authorizes the legislature’s expenses (an importan...
Social unrest significantly impacts economic activity and weakens government leverage for future reforms
PANAMA · Report · 21 May 2025
Panama is navigating a complex landscape of social unrest, fiscal challenges, and policy shifts. The economy has been hit by month‑long strikes from SUNTRACS, teachers, and banana workers—driven by grievances over the pension law reform, the proposed reopening of the copper mine, ACP’s Río Indio ...