PANAMA
Analyst
Marco Fernandez
Former Economic Advisor, Ministry of PlanningDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
One step back and one step forward in boosting growth: the impact of U.S. tariffs and progress on the mine’s reopening
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Apr 2025
Assessing the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Panama’s economyThe U.S. administration suspended country-specific tariffs for 90 days starting April 9 but maintained the 10% baseline tariff on all goods and countries, including Panama. It remains unclear whether the U.S. government will ultima...
Logjam in Panama’s logistics sector: Hegseth’s visit, the Panama Ports audit, the Trans-Isthmian Railway purchase, and the new gas pipeline
PANAMA · Report · 11 Apr 2025
The visit of US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth to Panama, during which a memorandum of understanding and a joint declaration were signed, aims to strengthen security cooperation through joint exercises and a "cost-neutral" compensation mechanism for security services between the US and the Pa...
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Panama granted yesterday a safe-conduct to former President Ricardo Martinelli, which had been requested months earlier by the Government of Nicaragua but had not been accepted by Panama
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2025
Martinelli was initially an asylum seeker without safe-conduct. Yesterday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wisely granted him safe-conduct on "humanitarian" grounds. By handling the situation this way, the ministry strategically avoided inadvertently legitimizing Martinelli's claim of political a...
The Pension Reform allows both sides to claim victory, mining reactivation is the next step in the reform sequence, and the Supreme Court opens the door to resolving Ricardo Martinelli’s case
PANAMA · Report · 18 Mar 2025
The approval of the reform to the pension law can be considered a victory for all the opposing groups, except for the leftist unions and educators: the retirement age was not increased, the additional employer contribution was staggered, but the individual notional account system was maintained, ...
Large 2024 deficit (7.35% of GDP) and commitment of MEF to reduce it to less than the 4.0% ceiling of the Fiscal Law
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Feb 2025
Today, Minister Chapman presented the fiscal situation for the end of 2024 and perspectives for 2025. The deficit of the NFPS of 7.35% in 2024, above our estimate of 6.2% and above the 2.0% that the Fiscal Law established in the 2020 revision by Minister Alexander. The explanation is twofold: und...
The proposal for reforms to the CSS pension plan presented by the government was modified by the Labor Commission of the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday night
PANAMA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025 · 3 responses
Most legislators opposed the proposal due to the three-year increase in the retirement age, arguing that the Government failed to adjust the public sector payroll, thus placing the financial burden on the older population. This claim holds some truth: the number of new public employees increased ...
Mr. Trump and the Panama Canal: An “external shock” and the necessity of a three-phase strategy for Panama
PANAMA · Report · 21 Jan 2025
Panama has been in the international economic and political spotlight in recent weeks, particularly following President Donald Trump’s inaugural address on January 20: “We are going to take back the Canal that was unfairly taken from us by Panama and which imposes unjustly high tolls.” This re...
Pension reform postponed, again… Martinelli loses in court, again… First Quantum seeks allies, again… Trump tries to influence Panama, again.
PANAMA · Report · 23 Dec 2024
Two tasks were pending for December 2024: (1) the Government's Economic Program (PEG), which we will analyze in detail in early January once it is officially published. It will form the basis for our projections for the next five years; and (2) the CSS reform, particularly the pension plan within...
The reform of the pension system goes to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · Report · 15 Nov 2024 · 1 response
The reform of the CSS legislation, in particular the pension system, is the most recent initiative of the Mulino administration, after the Fiscal Responsibility Law enacted at the beginning of the month (which suffered minor changes in the legislative) and the Budget Law, which was changed substa...