PHILIPPINES
Analyst
Diwa Guinigundo
Former Central Bank Deputy GovernorDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
A quick guide to the flood control anomalies in the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · Report · 02 Oct 2025 · 1 response
The Philippine flood control scandal has exploded into one of the country’s largest corruption crises in decades, exposing the scale of wasted funds and institutional decay. Sparked by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s 2025 State of the Nation Address, the scandal revealed “ghost projects” — incom...
Dark clouds ahead
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
Earlier assessments suggested that the post-pandemic slowdown in gross domestic capital formation (GDCF) could be constraining the Philippines’ productivity growth and long-term potential output. The latest data support this concern: from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, GDCF gro...
Market and Business Backlash Over Flood Control Corruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
As the Philippines' House of Representatives and the Senate pursue public hearings on the anomalous flood control projects, one clear consequence has been a negative market reaction. Just before the weekend, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped 0.75% (46 points) to close at 6,082.92, while...
Flood control projects: breach of social contract?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2025
Between 2011 and 2025, the Philippines allocated nearly ₱1.9 trillion to flood control projects, yet flooding has worsened due to pervasive corruption. Investigations reveal that as little as 40 percent of project funds reach implementation, with the rest siphoned off by politicians, DPWH officia...
2nd quarter economic growth steady
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025
The signs were known as early as June 2025 that economic growth in the Philippines would remain flat at the lower end of the revised GDP growth for the year 2025 of 5.5-6.5%. The average growth for the last five quarters stood at around 5.5-5.6%. Source: Philippine Statistics Authority The Phil...
A fair deal?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025
In our recent report on the Philippines’ negotiation with the US government on the level of reciprocal tariff, we argued that only its military and security value could be the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent visit to the US. And he should not squander it. Its small trade su...
"I thought I won!"
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2025
From all indications, it is Manila's military and security value that was the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent US visit. The country's trade value added is minuscule. Its exports to the US, mainly consisting of semi-con and other electronic products, have very close substitu...
Government downscales growth targets
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025
The Philippine Government, through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) a few days ago, reviewed and updated its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for this year and the next two years 2026 and 2027. Given the increased uncertainties and recen...
Gunning for a risk-adjusted Israel-Iran war scenario
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025
Based on the recent assessment by his economic team, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was reported to have “downplayed” the expected fallout from the Israel-Iran ballistic war compounded by the US bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran. Manageable, he said, and “so far, there is no s...