TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2024
In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly...
Heightened uncertainty over disinflation pace acknowledged, but...
TURKEY · Report · 17 Oct 2024
As expected, the CBRT/MPC remained on hold today, keeping the policy rate (one week repo) at 50%. The first paragraph appears to have been modified somewhat, while the rest of the statement regarding disinflation strategy and monetary policy guidance is exactly the same with September statement.
Think global, act local
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2024
After pondering at length developments in the Middle East, Ukraine war and the US presidential elections, the political analyst has decided to dedicate a major portion of his contribution to this monthly report to potential exogenous shocks, which would completely wreck Mehmet Simsek’s Economic S...
Red herrings, dark realities
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2024
President Erdogan and his loyal ally Mr. Bahceli are seriously freaking out about a potential Israeli assault so much so that, the president is claiming the Jewish holy land covers parts of Turkey. As far as the humble political analyst can investigate, the possibility of any type of military cla...
Inflation notably higher than expected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2024
Consumer price inflation was 3%, m/m, in September, visibly higher than the market (around 2.2%) and our slightly higher (2.3%) forecasts, the error in our forecast largely stemming from higher-than-expected price increases in food and beverages, and transportation services. The 12-month CPI infl...
Back to foreign policy, and more…
TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2024 · 2 responses
New York City mayor Eric Adams spared the politics author the boring task of covering Ekrem Imamoglu’s pending disbarment from political office and the potential for early elections. Instead, this week’s political essays are largely dedicated to foreign affairs. The indictment of NYC mayor Ada...
London business trip impressions by Atilla Yesilada
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Sep 2024 · 2 responses
I’ve toured London-based financial institutions last week for three days, when I met 27 different companies. I asked Global Source Partners NYC to organize this tour, because I had an important message to share: Turkey is more likely than not heading for an early ballot by year-end 2025, give and...
HEADS-UP: CHP leader Ozel mindful of Imamoglu being banned from politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2024
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel devoted a portion of his press conference on his way to US to the pending appeals court case regarding Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. He must be really concerned about the intermediate appeals court issuing its ruling “soon”, because he added that if that were the case, he w...
The economy this week, in brief
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2024
Service production declined slightly in July, over the previous month. Looking at industrial production, total trade and services indices together suggests, economic activity, broadly speaking, was in a stagnation mode rather than in steep contraction mode – as of July. The overall budget post...