TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Stubborn inflation, desperate corporates
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2025
The politics author starts with the story of the takeover of Ciner Holding on charges of money laundering. There is not much new in macro-politics, which shall be covered in depth in our upcoming monthly that we plan for next Sunday, while for the politics author the takeover of all Ciner Holding...
Another poor inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2025
Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 3.2%, m/m, in September (consensus: 2.5%, ours slightly higher) with the 12-month rate rising -- for the first time since May 2024 -- to 33.3% from 33.0% in August. PPI inflation increased by 2.5% m/m, lifting the annual rate to 26.6% from 25.2%...
Tales on a summit
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2025
Amidst much hype and misinformation, Messrs. Erdogan and Trump finally met. The summit was significant, because the respective teams spent 2 hours and 20 minutes behind closed doors. The politics author concludes in his single essay for the week that the outcome was largely favorable, although co...
Next Stop: Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025
Early yesterday, an Ankara prosecutor ordered the arrest of 13 employees of the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and independent contractors on charges of “overspending” ca. TL 150 mn ($4-5 mn depending on the exchange rates prevailing at the date of events). These accusations had been headlined ...
Mr. Erdogan goes to Washington
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2025
Erdogan added another one to Turkey’s recent gains in foreign policy by scoring an invitation from Trump to the White House on the 25th of September. Trump may visit Turkey in October too. The politics author anticipates a lucrative meeting for the US, and a productive one for Turkey. Gaza and Is...
Webinar replay - Turkey politics: CHP vs. Goliath
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2025
As the Erdogan-controlled legal system aims to divide and paralyze CHP with lawsuits, what countermeasures is the party's chairman Ozel taking? Can the CHP continue as a functioning political party in the face of these attacks and the pending indictments of arrested CHP mayors? With the Peace Com...
CHP convention hearing postponed to 24 October
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025
Contrary to majority expectations, the Ankara court trying allegations that CHP Grand Convention, when Ozgur Ozel dethroned Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was rigged, postponed its hearing to 24 October. It is not certain that the bench will reach a verdict, than, either. As I write these lines at 2 PM Ista...
Lower rates, higher political tensions
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2025
There are more than 50% odds that on Monday an Ankara court will declare the Grand Convention of CHP, where Ozel toppled Kemal Kilicdaroglu, null and void, reinstating the latter as trustee chairman. The first essay explains why: Kilicdaroglu’s views are very convenient for Erdogan, who shows no ...
MPC reduces the policy rate more than expected
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more-than-expected 250 bps today to 40.5%, compared with a revised market consensus of 200 bps, with equal reductions in O/N lending and borrowing rates. To recall, until about 10 days ago, the consensus was another 300 bps cut, but this was revised down ...