TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Forecasting in a witch’s cauldron
TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Oct 2026
The context is eerie and highly fluid, as the fund scandal --or “Fonzi” as it is colloquially called-- shows no sign of abating, which makes forecasting ever more difficult even by Turkish standards. We try anyway. We expect economic activity to continue to stagnate, as growth ends the year at 2....
MPC cuts the policy rate by 100 bps, signals more to come
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2026
The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) 100 bps to 36% today, while also adjusting the O/N lending and borrowing rates by equal amounts, in line with the consensus. In the descriptive part of the statement, the Bank now comes across more confident regarding underlying inflati...
A most critical MPC on deck
TURKEY · Report · 18 Oct 2026
President Erdogan proclaimed an end to the fund crisis, as judicial operations against CHP-run municipalities and MPs stepped up. Also, Turkey’s leading pro-opposition broadcaster Halk TV was taken over by the SDIF. Is this the rallying call of Erdogan’s final assault against the opposition nexu...
More on transfers, scandals, reserves
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2026
AKP scored a major coup in its endless recruitment drive by snagging CHP Izmir mayor Cemil Tugay. The logic is obvious, the more mayors migrate to, or municipalities are captured fair and foul, the more voting districts where AKP can increase its votes by providing superior service. But, does add...
A break of sorts in a long journey
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2026
CPI inflation was a lower-than-expected 1.8% m/m in September (compared with median expectation of some 2.2%), with annual CPI inflation declining to 29.7% from 31.5% in August, falling below the 30% mark for the first time since December 2021. The surprise seems driven by a sharper than expected...
Fast politics, slow economy
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2026
President Erdogan belatedly grasped that the fund scandal could cost him a large amount of votes, and decided to bite the bullet and compensate all victims to the tune of TL1 million, max. In the end, all holders of funds with the suspect assets managers will be compensated at the principal value...
Where do we stand?
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2026 · 1 response
Turkey’s fund scandal is by no means over, with small odds of contagion in the fund industry and a confidence crisis in equities. The conversation is shifting to AKP connections of alleged manipulators, with a deputy chairman of the party resigning on Saturday, pending an investigation. Contrary ...
Transfers, scandals, reserves, etc.
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2026
There is still almost a year and a half to the earliest date for elections, our politics author maintains, but President Erdogan has already begun planning. With constitutional talks potentially delayed to early 2027, because PKK is not laying down arms, his only viable path to re-eligibility is ...
BIST in the throes of its biggest crisis
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2026
After dropping a whopping 6% in Wednesday’s trading, Borsa Istanbul main index BIST-100 regained its composure Thursday morning, gaining 2% by 11 am . Yet, the scandal that triggered yesterday’s harrowing selloff had not passed. This post, written as of 11 am Turkish time, shares some preliminar...