TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
A brief macro update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2025
As our weekly report is on its usual holiday till September, we thought a very quick update on the past week’s developments could be useful, hence this post. In a nutshell, growth was likely stagnant in the second quarter, the CBRT Survey now places the policy rate at 35% by the end of this year,...
Inflation Report: First impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025
The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year today with a presentation, as usual, by Governor Karahan. Importantly, the Bank revised the framework through which medium-term forecasts are presented or communicated. Under the new approach, the Bank will separately announce “forecasts,” ...
Foreign Affairs: Victory in the North, Trouble in the South
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2025
Domestic politics is in gestation, as parties represented in the Grand Assembly ex-IYIP (centre-right nationalist) deliberate how rehabilitation of PKK militants and some of the grievances of Turkey’s Kurds can be resolved. The Peace Commission will submit draft bills to the GA when it reconvenes...
Macro thoughts
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Aug 2025 · 2 responses
It’s been a calm summer thus far, relatively speaking, despite an uneasy and uncertain political backdrop. The latter is likely to stay so indefinitely, we think, which should start taking a toll on the economy and markets, come late this year/early next. Economic activity has generally held u...
Again better than expected, but still quite sticky
TURKEY · Report · 04 Aug 2025 · 1 response
Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.1%, m/m, in July (vs consensus forecasts of around 2.4%), with the 12-month CPI rate declining further to 33.5%, from 35.1% in June. Monthly PPI inflation was 1.7% in the month, which led to a slight easing in the 12-month PPI rate to 24.2%, from 24...
CBRT cuts, Moody’s upgrades, politicians dither
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2025 · 1 response
With few neurons firing during an excruciating heatwave, the politics author cuts his essays short, saving his energy for the upcoming quarterly/forecast report. Frankly, with everything being in the air, there is not much to report home, except to say, “this looks like a pregnant pause”. He expe...
MPC: in a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2025
The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a more than expected 300 bps to 43% today, vs consensus and our expectation of 250 bps. The O/N lending and borrowing rates were also lowered by 300 bps (see chart), as the asymmetry of the O/N corridor was maintained, with the former n...
Politics tumultuous, econ on autopilot
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2025
The politics author laments that this is the most difficult period in his 35 years of covering Turkey. Everything he writes below is subject to unusually large margins of error. Nevertheless, he makes bold predictions, believing that shedding some light into the future is better than saying “it a...
(Kurdish) Peace Process: A little bit of Peace, a lot of Process
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025
Most visitors come back from Bodrum with fun memories: Sun-kissed pristine beaches, endless rave parties and excessive food and alcohol consumption. Your Truly came back with food poisoning, thus skipping his contribution to our Weekly Tracker. This Market Brief is to atone for his sins, where he...