TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
CBRT reserve update
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025 · 1 response
There is a lot of interest in CBRT reserve numbers these days for obvious reasons, so we thought it might be useful to send our latest estimates. In the three days from March 19 through 21, we estimate that the cumulative decline in net and gross reserves amounted to $26.6 billion and $19.2 billi...
Letters from the Insane Asylum
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025
Former president Suleiman Demirel once remarked “24 hours is a very long time in Turkish politics”, which wisely describes the bind the nation finds itself in. The rival camps are moving their pieces at dizzying speed like in a Blitz chess game. Since our last writing on Sunday night, there is a ...
Upcoming Webinar - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 25 Mar 2025
In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Join us for our live Zoom Webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Turkey An...
The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 23 Mar 2025
On Sunday, CHP mayor Imamoglu and 92 “accomplices” were found guilty of fraud and/or supporting terror organizations, with Imamoglu being sent to Silivri Correctional Facility. While it is not certain, the politics author (PA) takes a bet that the mayor will be soon replaced by a government-appoi...
On market volatility and CBRT actions: some preliminary reactions
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025
After yesterday’s carnage in Turkish markets that reportedly led to some $10-$15 billion loss in reserves by some counts (driven mostly by foreign investor outflows, we hear), the CBRT has taken a number of actions today, which included raising the O/N lending rate by 200 bps to 46% from 44% prev...
Erdogan crosses the Rubicon, Imamoglu and over hundred names arrested
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025 · 5 responses
Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon in his quest to regain eligibility for a third term. His choice is an all-out assault on CHP to paralyze the party, too weak to call for elections for or even maintain eligibility for them for the next year or so. Late yesterday, University of Istanbul invalidated ...
The mood music and stark realities
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2025
In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither...
Syria erupts, everyone frets
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response
In the brief time span of 72 hours, Western Syria erupted in horrendous violence, with a free for all between Assad loyalists, Alawites, Sunnis and HTS and loosely affiliated radical jihadis, as the death toll reached a reported 1K by late Sunday. While sketchy news flow from cities like Latakia ...
A quick econ update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Mar 2025
Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly in February, but corroborated the ongoing stagnation in the manufacturing sector overall. Turkstat’s seasonally-adjusted numbers for February inflation suggest, improvements notwithstanding, the road ahead for the CBRT will most likely be rather bumpy. Meanw...