TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Chaotic politics, stagnant economy
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2026
The macro context has become palpably more stagflationary over the past few months, with economic activity stagnating but inflation remaining elevated -- and we expect things to stay this way for the foreseeable future. But this should be no threat to the proverbial “carry trade” -- the only thin...
June inflation: a summer respite of sorts
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2026
Consumer prices rose by 1.0%, m/m, in June, in line with the median market expectation. As a result, annual consumer price inflation eased slightly to 32.1%, from 32.6% in May. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 1.8% in June, with the 12-month PPI rate thus declining also slightly to 28.1% from 2...
No snap elections in 2026, thus spoke the politics author
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2026
Despite objections from Greek and Israeli lobbies, the NATO Ankara summit is poised to turn into a love-fest between Messrs. Trump and Erdogan, with parties exchanging numerous gifts. Trump’s expected favors to Turkey could help scale up the defense industry and rebuild enough trust in Ankara to ...
Volatile politics, stagnant economy
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2026
The July Ankara NATO summit ostensibly aims to convince Trump that the best interests of the US are served by remaining and nurturing NATO. In fact, the summit will also celebrate Erdogan’s return to Western alliances, as a fully committed member willing to lift its share of the burden. Turkey’s...
La nausée
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2026
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the court-appointed chairman of CHP, seems to be in collusion with President Erdogan, hollowing out the party step by step by ejecting MPs and rank-and-file by disciplinary action. He has no intention to convene a new Grand Convention to pit himself against former chair Ozgur ...
No change, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2026
The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37%, 300 bps below the funding rate, broadly as expected. There was no material change in the statement other than a more explicit reference to demand weakness.
All eyes on CHP and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2026
We’ve reported on Q1 growth and May inflation data last week, which, in a nutshell, leave us with a stagflationary picture, with economic activity barely moving sequentially, and annual CPI inflation edging up further to 32.6% (from 32.4% in April). The rebound in manufacturing sector PMI in M...
May inflation: still badly stuck
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2026
CPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, in May, slightly above expectations, with annual consumer price inflation edging up to 32.6%, from 32.4% in April. With monthly domestic PPI inflation at 2.75% in May, the 12-month PPI rate also rose -- to 28.9%, from 28.6%.
Stagnation in the first quarter
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2026
The Turkish economy grew by 2.5%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2026, lower than market expectations (2.7%) and the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Sequentially, i.e., on a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth continued to lose momentum visibly, barely moving in the quarter (0.13%, q/q),...