Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global Research


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Recent Country Insights

When the rubber meets the road
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2024

The politics section of this Weekly Tracker is rather brief and to a large extent repetitive, because the author managed to catch pneumonia for the third summer in a row. The bulk of it is a refresher on Erdogan’s candidacy status -- and how this relates to early elections. In a nutshell, the aut...

Not much new to write home about
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2024

Turkey exploded in anti-Syrian rage during the week, while Syrians in Turkey-controlled areas of their country retaliated in kind. The politics author does not anticipate more inter-communal violence, but President Erdogan is now desperate to make peace with Assad. The major threat to Erdogan fro...

Downside surprise on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2024

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 1.6% in June (vs. 2.2%), with the 12-month rate declining visibly to 71.6% from 75.4% in May, helped, as anticipated, by base effects. Producer prices rose by 1.4% in the month (June 2023: 6.5%), with a much sharper decline in the 12-month PPI rate to ...

Hello early elections, bye-bye ESP?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2024

The main opposition leader Ozel wants early elections before or by end-2025. If Erdogan turns down the offer, CHP will not support any early election legislation. This means, Erdogan must either take up Ozel on his offer or scramble to find 360 votes in the Grand Assembly to send a new constituti...

MPC: No Change, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jun 2024

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 50% (simple) at today’s meeting, as expected. As for the content of the statement, the (middle) paragraph on the monetary policy stance, as well as monetary policy and inflation outlooks, has been kept fully intact, while there were t...

The Package, FATF and the BRICS
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2024 · 1 response

The Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek will brief the CHP economics team on the Economic Stabilization Program on Monday, in yet another sign that President Erdogan is committed to normalization despite Bahceli’s objections. Turkey has decided to join BRICS+, probably to alleviate Put...

Bahceli’s casus belli to Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Jun 2024 · 1 response

In a week widely anticipated to be headlined by the second Erdogan - Ozgur Ozel (CHP chair) summit, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli stole the limelight by issuing an unprecedently strong casus belli to Erdogan. The Erdogan-Ozel meeting went better than I anticipated, with leaders resolving to continue ...

Hotter politics, cooler economy
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jun 2024

The Turkish financial markets were rattled briefly mid-week, as the main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel threatened to launch a campaign for early elections. He later clarified his statements, essentially suggesting it is too early for that. Yet, his strategy of negotiating with Erdogan includes lev...

Broadly as expected, still sticky
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2024

Consumer prices increased by a slightly higher than expected 3.4%, m/m, in May, with the 12-month rate peaking at 75.5% up from 69.8% in April. Domestic-PPI posted a 2% increase, which raised the 12-month rate to 57.7% from 55.7% a month earlier (Graph 1; Table 1).

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