TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central BankAtilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Good enough to start?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2024
Consumer prices rose by 2.2%, m/m, in November, slightly higher than the consensus forecast of around 2%, and our forecast of just under 2%. The 12-month rate nevertheless eased to 47.1% from 48.6% in October. Monthly domestic PPI inflation posted a modest increase of 0.7%, with the 12-month rate...
In technical recession, light
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2024
In the third quarter, Turkish GDP rose by 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, but contracted slightly by 0.2% (sequentially) over the previous quarter in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted (SA) terms. With the downward revision of the second quarter sequential growth rate to -0.2%, q/...
Politics fluid, economy reasonably solid
TURKEY · Report · 24 Nov 2024
There is a lot of activity in the Turko-American relations, which according to the view of the political author, promises more upside than vice-versa, but it will take some time to work out the kinks. At home, Erdogan is redoubling the crackdown on opponents of all stripes, probably as a show ...
Rate unchanged, statement visibly more dovish
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2024
The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 50% at today’s meeting, in line with expectations. The statement (link here) turned visibly more dovish in our view, enhancing the probability of a December rate cut, assuming that November inflation does not badly surprise on the ups...
Back in the twilight zone of Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2024 · 1 response
Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone once again, where the unthinkable quickly becomes the norm. The politics essays start with reports of President Erdogan planning to send the military to Syria once again, to deal the final blow to the reigning Kurdish military-political entity PYD/YPG. W...
Erdogan throws hat into ring----amidst war drums
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024
Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone after a brief experiment with “normalization”, which is a wind of fresh breath for Yours Truly, who has become a crisis junkie long time ago. Just like the good old days, each new dawn brings fresh shocks, most of which contradict the main developments o...
Higher hopes in diplomacy meet higher inflation forecasts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Nov 2024 · 1 response
Ankara has Great Expectations from the second Trump presidency, some of which seem plausible. Yet, it is somewhat premature to make precise forecasts of exactly in which topic progress can be made in the troubled bi-lateral relationship, until Trump selects his cabinet. Additionally, what Trum...
In between a rock and a hard place on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2024 · 1 response
In the last Inflation Report of the year, the CBRT revised the inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 materially upwards to 44% (from 38%) and 21% (from 14%), respectively (both midpoints). While the former is no surprise at this point, the latter revision is a bit more significant than we...
Erdogan declares war on Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024
Barely had the Turkish body-politic recovered from the sacking of CHP Esenyurt (Istanbul) mayor, Prof Ahmet Ozturk, Erdogan dealt a second blow to tranquility by ordering the ouster of three Kurdish (DEM Party) mayors in the provinces of Mardin, Batman as well as the Halfeti town in the province ...