TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Looser monetary policy, tighter politics
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response
The politics section starts not with the acquittal of CHP from charges of a rigged convention, but charges of espionage about removed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who will have given testimony on Sunday. There is a non-negligible probability that a court will determine strong suspicion of him b...
MPC does the expected, says disinflation slowed, risks more pronounced
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2025 · 1 response
The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by 100 bps to 39.5% today, in line with (median) expectations, which we had posited as a compromise move of sorts in our Sunday post, so we were not surprised. The key change in today’s statement pertains to the paragraph on inflation developments and outlo...
A most fateful week
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2025
The CBRT/MPC will convene on Thursday and the next day, a court in Ankara may rule that CHP’s 38th extraordinary convention was rigged, turning the party over to former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu (the base-case scenario). The politics author also suspects that Turkey may wake up to new corporate...
Bracing for another rough winter
TURKEY · Report · 12 Oct 2025 · 1 response
With corruption accusations reaching Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas, it is almost certain that Kemal Kilicdaroglu will be returned to his position as party chairman during the month, thus sidelining Ozer and his team for a long period. Does CHP have any cards to play before being paralyzed? The (Ku...
Stubborn inflation, desperate corporates
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2025
The politics author starts with the story of the takeover of Ciner Holding on charges of money laundering. There is not much new in macro-politics, which shall be covered in depth in our upcoming monthly that we plan for next Sunday, while for the politics author the takeover of all Ciner Holding...
Another poor inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2025
Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 3.2%, m/m, in September (consensus: 2.5%, ours slightly higher) with the 12-month rate rising -- for the first time since May 2024 -- to 33.3% from 33.0% in August. PPI inflation increased by 2.5% m/m, lifting the annual rate to 26.6% from 25.2%...
Tales on a summit
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2025
Amidst much hype and misinformation, Messrs. Erdogan and Trump finally met. The summit was significant, because the respective teams spent 2 hours and 20 minutes behind closed doors. The politics author concludes in his single essay for the week that the outcome was largely favorable, although co...
Next Stop: Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025
Early yesterday, an Ankara prosecutor ordered the arrest of 13 employees of the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and independent contractors on charges of “overspending” ca. TL 150 mn ($4-5 mn depending on the exchange rates prevailing at the date of events). These accusations had been headlined ...
Mr. Erdogan goes to Washington
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2025
Erdogan added another one to Turkey’s recent gains in foreign policy by scoring an invitation from Trump to the White House on the 25th of September. Trump may visit Turkey in October too. The politics author anticipates a lucrative meeting for the US, and a productive one for Turkey. Gaza and Is...