TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
MPC: check, Fitch: check, Syria: check
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2026
The politics author starts his analysis with a heads-up which is not covered in the main body of the Weekly: Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan suspects Israel is about to attack Iran, a suspicion seconded in numerous international media sources. The Mullah regime falling without a clear successor, o...
CBRT surprises on the cautious side
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2026
Compared to forecasts of a 150 bps cut (including ours), the CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more modest and cautious 100 bps today to 37%. There were two relatively minor changes in the statement. Regarding January inflation, the Bank noted that “[w]hile leading indicators suggest that mon...
A brief lull in excitement
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2026
Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an eme...
Dull economy, hectic politics
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jan 2026 · 1 response
This week’s political essays start with foreign policy developments, covering allegations of illicit relations between Maduro and Turkey, Iranian unrest and the beginning of the end in Syria in the showdown between Kurds and al Sharaa. Herein in the short-term good scenarios are few. In the first...
We entered the New Year, now exit quickly
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jan 2026
Greetings from a planet that makes no sense and harbor few intelligence specimens, Earthlings. In the short span of a couple of weeks during which our team took a breather from machine-gun speed report writing, a pause which in my case lasted longer on account of my traditional winter upper respi...
Benign headline, same underlying challenges
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2026
December CPI inflation came in at 0.9%, m/m, broadly in line with expectations yet marginally lower than ours, with the 12-month rate ending the year at 30.9%, down from 31.1% in November. This is just under the lower end of the forecast range of the November Inflation Report (of 31–33%), yet mar...
An econ-only start to the New Year
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2026 · 1 response
As our politics author is dealing with a nasty flu, this is an econ-only weekly. He will provide his update in the next few days. Growth indicators that are now available for the full fourth quarter of last year – namely, manufacturing sector PMI and confidence indices – show tangible improvem...
Ready for a year of two halves?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2025 · 1 response
In this last quarterly/forecast report of the year, we provide a quick overview of the macroeconomics of 2025 and share our preliminary baseline scenario for 2026, the latter including our political risk map for the year. 2025 has played out broadly as expected, with inflation now likely to fi...
Aggressive cut, fuzzy statement
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2025 · 1 response
The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 150 bps to 38% at the last meeting of the year (see chart). While the move is sort of “in line with expectations”, it is probably fair to say that it certainly is “deeper than hoped for” by a good majority of analysts, including this author. Put differently, th...