TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Another week of solid data, rising tensions
TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Domestic political tensions continue to rise. A new lawsuit has been launched against the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while an investigation on bribery in CHP’s last grand convention could lead to the party being managed by a government-appointed trustee for a year or two. The politics author ...
On Turkey’s (political) fat tails
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2025
Having poured his heart out first in the recent quarterly/forecast report, the politics author is no mood to revisit the same old territory. Regarding “routine business,” he merely recaps the week’s developments pertinent to the main narrative, the most important of which is a “historic” statemen...
Inflation Report: End-2025 forecast up, but easing cycle very likely to continue
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2025
The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank, somewhat unexpectedly, revised up its end-2025 inflation forecast already to 24% from 21% previously (midpoints), while maintaining the 5 pp band around the forecast, as well as the 12% forecast for next year (see Slides 39-4...
Webinar replay - Turkey: What's in store in 2025?
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2025
What are the upsides and downsides of Erdogan and Trump? How will geopolitical factors in Syria and Israel play out for Turkey? Is there a peace dividend on the horizon? Are early elections ahead? How will the CBRT steer Turkey's economy, given its fairly tenuous credibility? Is tangible disinfla...
Slide Presentation - Turkey: What's in store in 2025?
TURKEY · Report · 06 Feb 2025
Get insight into Turkey's politics and economics with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Turkey: What's in store in 2025?" What are the upsides and downsides of Erdogan and Trump? How will geopolitical factors in Syria and Israel play out for Turkey? Is there a peace dividend on horizon? A...
A not so auspicious start into 2025
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2025
Consumer prices rose by 5%, m/m, in January, significantly above the consensus forecast of about 4.3%. But thanks to a strong base effect from last January, the 12-month rate nevertheless fell further to 42.1%, from 44.4% in December. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was also relatively elevated, p...
Amid rising political tensions, economy holding up – for now
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2025
The Erdogan-Bahceli regime launched a new crackdown, which spares no victims. These range from the CEO of a casting agency to party leaders. The politics author fails to find an overarching theme that ties the victims together, but if silencing every voice that opposes it will be the modus operan...
More of the same in 2025?
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2025 · 1 response
2024 was a good year in Turkey’s financial markets, much more so than we had expected, as attested to by the sharp improvement in several financial indicators, most notably reserves, but not so, in terms of the hoped-for gains on the disinflation front. 2025 will be a testing year in this rega...
Rates lowered, statement softened
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2025
The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by another 250 bps to 45% today (see chart), in line with expectations. There were not a whole lot of noteworthy changes in the statement, except for, importantly, the removal of detailed references to the monthly pace of inflation and inflati...