TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Too many known unknowns
TURKEY · Report · 22 Mar 2026 · 1 response
At the end of the third week of the Iran War or Gulf Crisis, its expansion, damage to supply changes and neighboring economies have become devastating. Our job is to make predictions about the Turkish economy and politics, but without understanding how long the war might last, what its permanent ...
It will probably get worse before it gets better
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2026
As the war in Iran enters its third week, it has progressed faster, harder and broader in geographical scope than any expert imagined. This is now a war of attrition, with no clear outcome. To make matters worse, Trump seems to be wavering between his advisors who suggest a graceful exit, and tho...
CBRT switches to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2026
As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate (together with the O/N lending and borrowing rates) unchanged today at 37%, stressing heightened geopolitical risks, the deterioration in the risk appetite and higher energy prices. In the statement, the reference to “step size” (regarding the magnit...
Iranian missiles, bank trials
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026
I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned abo...
Turkey flees, war finds her
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2026
Like most experts, we had anticipated that Iran, the US and Israel will battle one another way before the Second Iran War began, but failed to see how fast it progressed, its broadening scope to neutral third parties and the ongoing escalation, rather than a consensus on finding common ground for...
February inflation: not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2026
Consumer prices rose by 3% in February, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate rising to 31.5% from 30.7% in January. Producer prices rose by 2.4% in the month, which meant a modest increase also in the 12-month PPI inflation rate -- to 27.6%, from 27.2% in January. The main...
Activity ends 2025 on a weak note
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2026
The Turkish economy grew by 3.4%, y/y, in the final quarter of 2025, slightly below expectations of 3.6%, and down from 3.8% in Q3. In calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity seems to have lost quite a bit of momentum sequentially, rising at a modest 0.4%, q/q, which, incidenta...
Remember Ms. Pandora?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2026
The best advertised war of the Century started early Saturday morning with the assassination of key Iranian leaders, rapidly spreading to Gulf Countries and the Gulf of Hurmuz afterwards. As the politics analyst sends his essay to the editor, at 4 pm Istanbul time, Sunday, many important question...
Relative calm at home, chaos abroad
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2026
The Peace Commission unveiled it is not-so-eagerly awaited report to the Grand Assembly, which covers matters related to the dissolution of PKK and fate of Ocalan, as well as suggestions for democratization. The Grand Assembly will start debating the proposals after Ramadan. While the PKK portion...