TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Reconciliation talks with Kurds pick up pace
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2025
The politics author attempts to tell the convoluted story of how President Erdogan and his partner Mr. Bahceli are planning to achieve their ultimate aim of securing eligibility for the former for a third run at the presidency. It is going to be through a new Constitution. With all opposition par...
Time flies, nothing changes in Neverland
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2025 · 1 response
In 2025, the ultimate goal of Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli remains to secure eligibility for the former for a third run at presidency, while the main opposition party CHP will deploy full-court press for early elections. The reigning Republic Alliance is currently forcing the constitutional change...
Trend reversal or just a respite?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response
December CPI-inflation surprised on the downside by coming in at 1%, visibly lower than market expectations – including ours -- of around 1.6%. At 44.4%, 12-month CPI inflation hence ended the year closer to the CBRT’s mid-point forecast of 44% in the November Inflation report, versus the consens...
Last (econ) words of 2024
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2024
With Atilla having finally released me from his “broom closet” (see CBRT Cuts By 250 Bps, December 26, 2024), I thought I should share a few thoughts on last week’s CBRT move and a few other matters, before we conclude the year.
CBRT cuts by 250 basis points by Atilla Yesilada
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024
‘Tis the season to be jolly, thus I locked Murat into our broom closet to promote my brand of CBRT watch, which is highly emotional and sensationalist, similar to gonzo journalism. CBRT MPC gave the nation a New Year’s gift by cutting rates by 250 basis points. It also narrowed the corridor betwe...
A prelude to 2025
TURKEY · Report · 20 Dec 2024 · 1 response
For Turkey, the sudden regime change in Syria promises to be the primary source of uncertainty in 2025. The politics author predicts short term damage but magnificent mid- and long-term gains, where mid-term is defined as at least a year. Achieving the long sought after objective of completely di...
All seems fine on the BOP front
TURKEY · Report · 12 Dec 2024
The current account recorded a $1.9 billion surplus in October, notably better than expectations of around a $1.3 billion surplus, compared with broad balance in the same month of last year, which, incidentally, marked the fifth consecutive month of surplus in the current account.
Good enough to start?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2024
Consumer prices rose by 2.2%, m/m, in November, slightly higher than the consensus forecast of around 2%, and our forecast of just under 2%. The 12-month rate nevertheless eased to 47.1% from 48.6% in October. Monthly domestic PPI inflation posted a modest increase of 0.7%, with the 12-month rate...
In technical recession, light
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2024
In the third quarter, Turkish GDP rose by 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, but contracted slightly by 0.2% (sequentially) over the previous quarter in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted (SA) terms. With the downward revision of the second quarter sequential growth rate to -0.2%, q/...