TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
More on transfers, scandals, reserves
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2026
AKP scored a major coup in its endless recruitment drive by snagging CHP Izmir mayor Cemil Tugay. The logic is obvious, the more mayors migrate to, or municipalities are captured fair and foul, the more voting districts where AKP can increase its votes by providing superior service. But, does add...
A break of sorts in a long journey
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2026
CPI inflation was a lower-than-expected 1.8% m/m in September (compared with median expectation of some 2.2%), with annual CPI inflation declining to 29.7% from 31.5% in August, falling below the 30% mark for the first time since December 2021. The surprise seems driven by a sharper than expected...
Fast politics, slow economy
TURKEY · Report · 04 Oct 2026
President Erdogan belatedly grasped that the fund scandal could cost him a large amount of votes, and decided to bite the bullet and compensate all victims to the tune of TL1 million, max. In the end, all holders of funds with the suspect assets managers will be compensated at the principal value...
Where do we stand?
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2026 · 1 response
Turkey’s fund scandal is by no means over, with small odds of contagion in the fund industry and a confidence crisis in equities. The conversation is shifting to AKP connections of alleged manipulators, with a deputy chairman of the party resigning on Saturday, pending an investigation. Contrary ...
Transfers, scandals, reserves, etc.
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2026
There is still almost a year and a half to the earliest date for elections, our politics author maintains, but President Erdogan has already begun planning. With constitutional talks potentially delayed to early 2027, because PKK is not laying down arms, his only viable path to re-eligibility is ...
BIST in the throes of its biggest crisis
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2026
After dropping a whopping 6% in Wednesday’s trading, Borsa Istanbul main index BIST-100 regained its composure Thursday morning, gaining 2% by 11 am . Yet, the scandal that triggered yesterday’s harrowing selloff had not passed. This post, written as of 11 am Turkish time, shares some preliminar...
Read my lips, says our politics man
TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2026
Early elections has become the number one topic of Turkish social media pundits, which is finding some support among market participants, too. Turkey will hold early elections, but no earlier than 2Q2028, our politics author maintains. The first essay thus explains why arranging early elections i...
MPC: gearing up for an October cut?
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2026
As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% today. The statement was not very different either, in which the Bank reiterated the ongoing demand weakness and acknowledged that “elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments pose an upward risk to the inflation outlook.”
On the political agenda and today’s MTP
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2026
Our autumn coverage in politics start with the review of the agenda, which promises to be turbulent and chock full of surprises. Messrs. Ozel and Yavas will be eliminated from the presidential race before 2027, the politics author thinks, while progress in the (Kurdish) Peace Process may trigger ...