TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
February inflation: not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2026
Consumer prices rose by 3% in February, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate rising to 31.5% from 30.7% in January. Producer prices rose by 2.4% in the month, which meant a modest increase also in the 12-month PPI inflation rate -- to 27.6%, from 27.2% in January. The main...
Activity ends 2025 on a weak note
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2026
The Turkish economy grew by 3.4%, y/y, in the final quarter of 2025, slightly below expectations of 3.6%, and down from 3.8% in Q3. In calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity seems to have lost quite a bit of momentum sequentially, rising at a modest 0.4%, q/q, which, incidenta...
Remember Ms. Pandora?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2026
The best advertised war of the Century started early Saturday morning with the assassination of key Iranian leaders, rapidly spreading to Gulf Countries and the Gulf of Hurmuz afterwards. As the politics analyst sends his essay to the editor, at 4 pm Istanbul time, Sunday, many important question...
Relative calm at home, chaos abroad
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2026
The Peace Commission unveiled it is not-so-eagerly awaited report to the Grand Assembly, which covers matters related to the dissolution of PKK and fate of Ocalan, as well as suggestions for democratization. The Grand Assembly will start debating the proposals after Ramadan. While the PKK portion...
Ministerial changes, IMF reflections
TURKEY · Report · 15 Feb 2026
President Erdogan changed his Interior and Justice Ministers at a delicate juncture in the Peace Process. The former Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya was offered as the sacrificial lamb to MHP, as the minister’s habit of purging nationalist high-ranking cops irritated the junior partner. The new n...
Next move most probably a 100 bps cut
TURKEY · Report · 12 Feb 2026
The CBRT held its first Inflation Report meeting of the year today. As expected, the Bank kept its interim targets unchanged at 16% for 2026 and 9% for 2027, while setting an interim target of 8% for 2028. But the Bank revised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast range upward by two percentage po...
A little bit of this, a little bit of that
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2026 · 1 response
Turkey’s (Kurdish) Peace Process got a boost from a new peace deal in Syria, but at home the going is very slow and torturous, because Peace Committee members can’t find a way to finesse Ocalan’s “right to hope” in their report to the Grand Assembly. President Erdogan is changing tack in his C...
Keep calm and carry (on)
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2026
Preventing regime change in Iran has become the number one policy priority for Ankara, which is rightfully mindful of negative spillovers across the border. The politics author thinks a peace deal between Iran and US-Israel is not very likely, thus sharing Ankara’s concern. At home, it is calm...
Inflation: a challenging start to 2026
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2026
Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 4.8%, m/m, in January, with the 12-month CPI rate therefore easing only slightly to 30.7% from 30.9% in December, while producer prices rose by 2.7% (January 2025: 3.1%, m/m) with the 12-month rate easing to 27.2% from 27.7% in December. The key driv...