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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Volatile times bringing surprising favor to the region
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2025

Costa Rica dealt with an array of factors that slowed economic activity in 2024. However, real GDP growth outperformed our forecast, although growth was lower than in 2023. Domestic and external exogenous elements influenced the economic deceleration, such as a restrictive monetary policy stance ...

Preparing for global challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jan 2025

Costa Rica is facing fiscal challenges that require strong policy actions to ensure long-term sustainability. Progress made in previous years improved fiscal indicators. Nevertheless, for the second year in a row there has been a slight deterioration in some fiscal data. The lack of a formal agre...

Bracing for Trump, after a reasonable 2024
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In Costa Rica, political confrontation between the Executive branch and Congress and the Judiciary persists. President Rodrigo Chaves’ style, which resembles that of other authoritarian and populist presidents in this hemisphere, also shares with those leaders’ popularity in the polls. Consequenc...

Worry in the runup to a second Trump administration
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

El Salvador’s macroeconomic conditions are worsening. Economic activity has continued to be relatively stagnant, and has yet to show positive results from economic policy actions other than in some scattered indicators, such as in tourism. Foreign remittances have decelerated, while the fiscal de...

A mixed performance
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In Costa Rica, praise for national economic management, and early-year successful evaluations from external analysts then embraced by the official discourse, now seem premature, as the country is falling short in several macroeconomic indicators. Economic activity is still increasing nicely, but ...

Hopes deferred
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2024

El Salvador’s short-term economic outlook looks less hopeful we projected in our April 2024 report, after analyzing H1 trends. Deviation from key assumptions we made in the April forecasting exercise has turned perspectives less favorable. The eventual better performance that we expected either c...

High hopes for Guatemala, as neighbors struggle
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2024

In Guatemala, private sector confidence has improved since President Bernardo Arevalo took office in January, and expectations within the country are high. In Bank of Guatemala surveys, most respondents said they expected the economic situation to improve in the next six months. Arevalo is workin...

Challenging times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2024 · 1 response

Costa Rica experienced a deceleration in several key macroeconomic indicators during H1 2024. According to latest official data, economic activity growth slowed due to a combination of external and internal factors. Externally the economic situation was stable, with low growth rates of most tradi...

High hopes and mixed signals
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

Costa Rica’s political conditions have stayed the same for the past two years, with strained relationships between President Rodrigo Chaves and members of the congressional opposition now adding to Chaves’ renewed criticism of the Comptroller General. Recall that during these past two years the p...

Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024

In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...

Good spots and prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

El Salvador grew faster than expected in 2023 and, under optimistic and somewhat daring assumptions about economic policy decision-making this year, it could maintain those positive economic results during the outlook period. During this second administration of President Nayib Bukele, we expect ...

Webinar Replay - Central America Outlook: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 Apr 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the economic outlook for Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. What will fiscal consolidation mean for Costa Rica after its IMF program ends? Will El Salvador agree to a new IMF financing program? Will Guatemala find stability after ...

Growth mixed, but tied to U.S. trends.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2024

Guatemala´s economy returned to its long-term potential growth rate in 2023. Despite the political tensions over presidential transition, there were no major disruptions in internal production and income. Real GDP growth reached 3.5% y/y, down from 4.1% a year before. Economic expansion can be ex...

Prospects looking up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Understanding Costa Rica’s unexpectedly good 2023 economic performance requires evaluating the main exogenous elements that departed from our basic assumptions for the country’s short-term economic outlook. This is important, primarily to rehearse a suitable forecast scenario. Those elements rela...

Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...

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