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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 15
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Hungary databank Oct 18
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: High risk of tariffs and trade sanctions generates investment uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2024
The victory of Donald Trump, together with the Republican majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress, indicates that it is practically a given that there will be pressure to threaten to impose tariffs on Mexico. The aim would be to force the Mexican government to toughen measures to prevent the...
Politics: The challenges facing the new PAN leadership
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2024
On Sunday, November 11, the PAN, Mexico’s main opposition party, renewed its leadership, with its newly elected president, Jorge Romero, promising a thoroughgoing reform. However, the obstacles are formidable, beginning with Romero’s very diminished credibility. His reputation has been tarnished ...
Economics: Gross fixed capital formation in August posts a contraction due to a significant weakening in construction
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024
The Inegi published figures for gross fixed capital formation as of August, which showed an annual -0.9% contraction. This was the first decline since February 2021 and is attributable to a -6.0% contraction in construction investment, while the machinery and equipment component increased 5.0%. ...
Politics: Judicial reform becomes constitutional, with no other option left for opponents
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024
On Tuesday, November 5, what was the last hope for opponents of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and newly inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Judicial Reform vanished into thin air as, at the last minute, the Supreme Court failed by one vote to obtain the 8 vs 3 majority required to rule on its...
Economics: October data shows a lackluster economy as public finances deteriorate further and the inflation outlook remains murky
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024
A review of indicators published in October confirms the slow coasting of the economy and an accelerating deterioration of public finances. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere 3 bps in August, largely in response to a sharp drop in civil engineering works, while manufacturing again grew ...
Politics: Embedded and emboldened organized crime groups with links to the government are a major problem for Sheinbaum
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024
The most striking feature of most balance sheets of security under López Obrador's government was the level of violence. Despite official statistics registering a downtrend in homicides in the past two years, for AMLO’s entire six years in office there were close to 200,000 murders and more than ...
Economics: Additional social programs and lack of fiscal reform spell further deterioration of public finances
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2024
The Ministry of Finance will deliver the 2025 Economic Package to the Chamber of Deputies on November 15. Only then will it be possible to learn in detail about the current government's policies, ostensibly aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit, guaranteeing the financing of social programs and in...
Politics: Reform impasse deepens as Sheinbaum ignores court and moves to ban judicial review of reforms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2024
Just two weeks ago, we provided an account of the serious conflicts generated by passage of the judicial reform proposals championed by the previous and current presidents of Mexico and the constitutional crisis it had ignited. Since then, the crisis has steadily deepened, fanned by the increasi...
Economics: Economic and political regime change modifies the balance of risks in the medium-to-long term
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
Amid a wave of fresh constitutional reforms, some already approved and others progressing at a fast clip, the arrival of the new president and Federal Congress marks a shift in the country's economic-political regime—a shift that defines a balance of risks and opportunities that are quite differe...
Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2024
With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in th...
Economics: Afores (private pension funds) could be the next source for financing the growing public deficit
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024
Public finances have continually weakened, especially in the past three years, with ever-increasing public deficits. For 2024, it is estimated that the public deficit will close at nearly 6% of GDP. The factors underpinning this forecast are that the federal government accelerated its spending to...
Politics: Judicial reform advances but conflicts continue, with major potential consequences
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2024
Morena and AMLO’s much touted judicial reform has passed the legislative procedural hurdles, and the National Electoral Institute (INE) has agreed to organize the election of judges, justices, magistrates, with the first election slated for next June. However, the fight is far from over, and the ...
Economics: Business confidence in the Mexican economy weakens in recent months
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2024
Business confidence has been weakening in recent months. According to Inegi’s Monthly Survey of Business Opinion, as of September 2024 the overall business confidence indicator stood at 50.9 points (the maximum is 100), a level 5.5 points lower than in the same month of the previous year and whic...
Politics: The Sheinbaum Presidency—first positions and implications
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2024
There were no big surprises in Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day in office and her two inauguration day speeches. Everything points to a continuation of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s social programs (a central axis of his and Morena’s so-called "Fourth Transformation"), ideology, a...
Politics: New Morena leadership, with Sheinbaum increasingly fenced in by AMLO and a highly disparate party
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2024
A week ago, 3,000 delegates to a Morena party congress were called upon to raise their hands to endorse a new national executive committee, whose composition the national leadership only read out immediately before the seemingly unanimous vote. The new leadership is heavily stacked with AMLO loya...