GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Banxico held its reference rate at 6.5% for a third consecutive meeting, once again unanimously, following a cutting cycle that we consider to have been accelerated and that now leaves the central bank with little room to maneuver. Core inflation, sustained by resilient services prices, eight yea...

Politics: Electoral process—Morena goes all in, and the INE backs it up

MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2026

Mexico's 2027 electoral process, which formally began on September 10, is shaping up as far more than a routine midterm contest over 500 federal deputies, 17 governorships, and 1,800 mayoralties. For President Sheinbaum and Morena, the stakes are very high: preserving the qualified congressional ...

Mexico at a crossroads: Growth, fiscal strains and trade uncertainties - Slide presentation and webinar replay

MEXICO · Presentation · 24 Sep 2026

With job creation and productive investment remaining weak, what will it take to reignite Mexico’s economic growth? How serious are the challenges facing Mexico’s public finances, and what are the implications for the country's economic outlook? How can inflation be put in check? What is the futu...

Upcoming Webinar: Mexico at a Crossroads - Growth, Fiscal Strains and Trade Uncertainties

MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2026

Date: 23 Sep 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT With job creation and productive investment remaining weak, what will it take to reignite Mexico’s economic growth? How serious are the challenges facing Mexico’s public finances, and what are the implications for the country's economic outlook? How can i...

Politics: Insecurity persists, but the criminal landscape is shifting

MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2026

Mexico's insecurity problem has not eased; it has changed shape. INEGI's 2026 victimization survey (ENVIPE) shows that while traditional street crimes—robbery, home burglary, vehicle theft—have fallen sharply since 2018 (down 44% as a group), fraud, extortion, and threats have surged and now acco...

Economics: Risks intensify on multiple fronts

MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2026

Mexico faces an adverse external environment, with oil prices remaining elevated following the US-Iran conflict, reigniting global inflationary pressures and prompting the Fed and the European Central Bank to resume rate hikes. This compounds risks for a Mexican economy marked by structural decel...

Economics: The 2027 Economic Package shows the same public finance trends and problems as 2018-2026

MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The 2027 Economic Package presented by the SHCP on September 8 implies that public finances will likely continue along the same trajectory they have followed since 2018. In that regard, it is worth recalling that tax revenue grew steadily thanks to more aggressive income tax enforcement and lower...

Politics: Morena's legislative agenda for the new legislative period — between U.S. demands and electoral strategy

MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The congressional session that opened on September 1 clearly reflects the Sheinbaum government's dual agenda ahead of the 2027 midterm and gubernatorial elections. Of the 31 items originally proposed by Morena's legislators, the Office of the Legal Counsel to the Presidency narrowed the agenda to...

Economics: Financing to the non-financial private sector weakens in the second quarter of 2026

MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Financing to the non-financial private sector slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, in both its domestic and external components. Consumer credit continues to post high growth rates, but that behavior stems mainly from the banking penetration of segments previously served by SOFOMES and f...

Politics: Between propaganda and reality — what Sheinbaum's Second State of the Nation Address said, and what it left unsaid

MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Mexico's tradition of presidentialism, once expressed through the ritual of the president's State of the Nation Address to Congress, has effectively been abandoned since 2006 rather than reformed into a genuine mechanism of accountability; Sheinbaum, like her predecessors, delivered her Second St...

Politics: Rocha Moya and the conflict at the top of Morena and the 4T as a whole

MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Rubén Rocha Moya's abrupt and short-lived return to Sinaloa's governorship, followed within 33 hours by a second, indefinite leave of absence, exposed a serious rift at the top of Morena over who truly controls the movement — Claudia Sheinbaum or her predecessor's inner circle. Rocha Moya's decis...

Economics: Mexico's August data shows a rebound in some sectors but it won't translate into lasting growth

MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Mexico's economic indicators released in August showed a partial rebound: private consumption grew 2.6% YoY in May and gross fixed investment rose 2.4%, following twenty consecutive months of decline, while June's IGAE advanced 1.7% annually, and revised second-quarter GDP came in with 1.9% annua...

Economics: Macroeconomic scenarios 2026-2030 and their political determinants

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026

We frame Mexico's macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2030 around four scenarios, the probabilities of which point to a predominantly adverse picture. The most likely scenario (50%) is the inertial one, in which government policy remains largely unchanged: the erosion of the rule of law — reflecte...

Politics: Implications of the U.S. visa revocation for AMLO's son

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026 · 1 response

The revocation of the U.S. visa of AMLO´s eldest son, known as “Andy”, was a low-cost, secretive, and unexplained administrative measure targeting a man with no formal government role that triggered a political crisis wildly disproportionate to the act itself, exposing deep fractures within Mexic...

Economics: Following the Q2 GDP rebound, a slowdown is expected in the second half of the year

MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2026

Second-quarter 2026 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 2.1% annually, but the strength came almost entirely from volatile or previously depressed components — mining, agriculture, residential construction, wholesale trade, and health services — that are unlikely to sustain their momentum throu...