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Politics: Ties between organized crime and political figures pose a major challenge to Mexico’s stability and future
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2025

A key point of contention between the U.S. and Mexican governments has been the link between organized crime and key public officials and politicians. While tariff disputes have their ups and downs, this claim has been a constant for Washington, but has resulted in an unambiguous denial on the pa...

Economics: First quarter GDP and March IGAE anticipate further weakening for the remainder of the year
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2025

Last week saw the release of revised GDP data for the first quarter of 2025, which showed a 0.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth. The week also saw the IGAE for March, which reported a -0.1% annual decline. In most branches of activity, the economic indicators for March and those availa...

Economics: Familiar official pledges at the Banking Convention fail to address problems in credit access for MSMEs
MEXICO · Report · 19 May 2025

At the latest annual Banking Convention, the Sheinbaum administration served up the familiar petitions to facilitate access to credit for MSMEs (micro, small and medium-sized enterprises) and lower interest rates for that segment of the productive sector. Easier said than done, as history has sho...

Politics: Not much action on the legislative front by the end of the period
MEXICO · Report · 19 May 2025

Despite considerable time and effort expended in the halls of the legislature and in the mass media, including in the morning presidential press conferences, to giving the impression that the Fourth Transformation was advancing on the legislative front, the reality appears less spectacular. For t...

Economics: First quarter public finances surprisingly favorable yet unsustainable for the rest of the year, with scant room to contain spending
MEXICO · Report · 13 May 2025

Mexico's public finances delivered favorable results in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a substantial increase in non-oil tax revenues (real annual +17.8%) and a contraction in public spending (real annual -5.9%), a performance facilitated by calendar effects. But despite such a positive sho...

Politics: The current state of democracy in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2025

There is rising concern in Mexico that the country’s democracy is in danger. The current debate was sparked by a magazine article and interview granted by Ernesto Zedillo in which the former president declared that Mexican democracy is dead and that the country is moving toward an authoritarian a...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross Fixed Investment falls in February for sixth consecutive month
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 May 2025

Gross Fixed Investment in February: Sixth consecutive annual decline due to sharp contraction in construction investment and recent drop in M&E Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -6.0% YoY in February, continuing the negative trend that began in the second half of the previous year and ma...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption in February posts a third consecutive annual decline
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 May 2025

Private consumption through February: Third consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, alongside persistent weakness in spending on domestic goods. Private consumption fell by -0.7% YoY in February 2025, marking the third consecutive decline after a slow...

Economics: Trouble ahead despite some marginal upticks in the 1Q preliminary GDP report
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025

While last week’s preliminary GDP report for the first quarter may have marginally surpassed some expectations, its scant improvement appears to mask deeper economic problems. Robust numbers for January allowed the agricultural sector to deliver most of the economic growth last quarter, as indust...

Politics: Telecommunications reform poses the risk of an economic and political step backward
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2025

A new telecommunications bill has sparked an uproar over the issue of censorship and freedom of expression in relation to the media. The proposed legislation replaces the Telecommunications Law approved in 2013 during Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. While many of Peña Nieto’s policies have s...

Public finances appear solid in Q1, but a detailed examination reveals their fragility going forward.
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 May 2025

As of March, the fiscal deficit declined sharply. Revenues increased significantly and spending remained on a downward trend, although more moderately. Notwithstanding it is unlikely the annual fiscal targets will be met. In the first quarter of 2025, public finances showed significant improvemen...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Pemex Q1 2025: Financial Results and Oil&Gas Production Decline Continues; Marginal Improvement in Refining
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 May 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, Pemex reported mixed operational results. On one hand, liquid hydrocarbon production fell by 11.3% compared to the same period in 2024, natural gas output declined by 8.7%, and crude oil exports dropped by 22.8%. On the other hand, the refining segment showed modest ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening services According to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point...

Economics: Consumer confidence extends its slide as employment weakens; a further erosion of consumption is possible
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Mexico’s consumer confidence index deteriorated in its latest reading, prompting some analysts to note that it foreshadows a greater deceleration of private consumption for the coming months. It is important to consider that the index allows anticipating the behavior of consumption in certain co...

Politics: The National Development Plan—where is Mexico headed?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Mexico’s immediate future will largely be determined by the National Development Plan (NDP). The 2025-2030 version of the plan was recently approved by Morena and its allies in Congress. The plan had sparked optimism in some business circles given the perception—and hope—that President Claudia Sh...

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