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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: November economic news devoid of signs Mexico might see an upturn anytime soon
MEXICO · Report · 01 Dec 2025

Gross fixed investment and private consumption figures through August remain a major obstacle to any chance of an economic rebound through early 2026. At the same time, industrial activity remains on the skids, while 3Q GDP slipped two basis points. Weakness also remains apparent in services cons...

Politics: Changes at the Attorney General's Office, controversial rulings by the Supreme Court, and growing social protests
MEXICO · Report · 01 Dec 2025

A rift has appeared between Sheinbaum and newly elected Supreme Court justices perceived as favorable to the 4T. The judges’ intent was to eliminate a basic judicial principle that legal conflicts must have a definitive conclusion. Without this certainty, disputes would become endless. This woul...

Economics: With the heyday of robust commodity prices long past, Mexico's agriculture struggles amid improvised, dysfunctional policies
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The government’s response to agriculture over the past year traverses an arc similar to other areas of government policy, including energy, health, education, and communications infrastructure. This response is characterized by strategies directly inherited from the previous administration along...

Politics: Anti-government protests fueled by discontented youth pose risks for the 4T and the Sheinbaum government
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2025

A large demonstration on Saturday, November 15 against President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government may be a prelude to a major political realignment. The catalyst for the protest was the November 1 killing of Uruapan, Michoacán Mayor Carlos Manzo, a fierce critic of Sheinbaum’s security policy, whic...

Economics: The non-tariff barriers US cites put Mexico at a disadvantage in the upcoming USMCA review and potential renegotiation
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2025

The positions on non-tariff barriers being cited by the current US administration loom large over the USMCA review and possible renegotiation, a process the three signature countries are scheduled to jointly engage in beginning next July. The barriers Washington points to were outlined in a US Tr...

Politics: Sheinbaum's administration under fire on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2025

With Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration now into its second year, prospects are not as bright as they once appeared. Sheinbaum had everything going for her, including AMLO’s legacy and high approval ratings and a weak opposition. But her incapacity to break with AMLO’s erroneous poli...

Economics: A complex public finance picture compounded with a bigger bailout of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025 · 1 response

Public finances maintained in September the same basic trend seen in previous months. In the revenue column a deterioration in oil revenues contrasted with higher tax and non-tax revenues. In expenditures, there was a reduction in programmable spending that was particularly severe in the case of ...

Politics: Killing of Michoacán mayor sparks outrage over weakness in Sheinbaum’s response to organized crime
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The high-profile murder on November 1 of Carlos Manzo Rodriguez, mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán, has sparked enormous pent-up indignation nationwide and put the spotlight on President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public security policies. Manzo, who had previously been a Morena congressional deputy but bolte...

Economics: A sputtering economy and a complex public finance outlook as the monetary policy spread narrows
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Data released in October shows the economy continues to spiral downward under the weight of declining productive investment and private consumption. The same weakness is reflected in the labor market, with declining numbers of formal sector jobs being somewhat offset by more people finding inform...

Politics: PAN at the crossroads, seeking better fortunes with a relaunch and a new face, identity, and organizational style
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Mexico’s largest opposition political party — the PAN —appears to be realizing that it is in an existential crisis and needs a major shakeup, overhaul, and new identity. The evidence is overwhelming: party membership is down to 200,000, which contrasts with Morena’s campaign for 10 million new af...

Economics: The latest IGAE figures project further slowing in the third quarter and stagnation for 2025
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2025

IGAE figures for August show a weak economy with deterioration in the second half of the year, as this index registered zero growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate for the month, after falling -1.2% in July. This implies that, on average, the economy fell -0.6% at an annual rate in July-Augu...

Politics: The 4T moves to further restrict the power and independence of the judicial system
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2025

In the ongoing battle to defend the role and independence of the judicial branch of government, the latest front involves the legislative decision to amend the Amparo Law. Those in favor of reforming the Amparo Law charge that it has been used to shield the rich and powerful, especially high-end ...

Economics: Stagnant employment sets the stage for further weakening of private consumption in late 2025 and early 2026
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025

The total employed population in Mexico shrank -0.3% yoy in August and on average for the first eight months of this year it remains flat, according to ENOE figures. This flatlining follows the trend of slowing job growth that began last year and is in line with the sputtering of the economy over...

Politics: Mexico’s foreign policy under Morena's governments
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025

Since the 1930s, Mexican foreign policy has been based in theory on the Estrada Doctrine as codified in two principles: non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and national self-determination. Independently of domestic policies and whichever president was in office, Mexico’s a...

Economics: New energy sector regulations open doors to private investment, but the legal uncertainty is too off-putting
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2025

Decrees that appeared in the October 3 Official Gazette of the Federation contain regulations for six secondary laws in the energy sector: the Energy Planning and Transition Law, the Hydrocarbons Sector Law, the Electricity Sector Law, the Biofuels Law, the Geothermal Energy Law, and the Hydrocar...

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