GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Rubén Rocha Moya's abrupt and short-lived return to Sinaloa's governorship, followed within 33 hours by a second, indefinite leave of absence, exposed a serious rift at the top of Morena over who truly controls the movement — Claudia Sheinbaum or her predecessor's inner circle. Rocha Moya's decis...

Economics: Mexico's August data shows a rebound in some sectors but it won't translate into lasting growth

MEXICO · Report · 31 Aug 2026

Mexico's economic indicators released in August showed a partial rebound: private consumption grew 2.6% YoY in May and gross fixed investment rose 2.4%, following twenty consecutive months of decline, while June's IGAE advanced 1.7% annually, and revised second-quarter GDP came in with 1.9% annua...

Economics: Macroeconomic scenarios 2026-2030 and their political determinants

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026

We frame Mexico's macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2030 around four scenarios, the probabilities of which point to a predominantly adverse picture. The most likely scenario (50%) is the inertial one, in which government policy remains largely unchanged: the erosion of the rule of law — reflecte...

Politics: Implications of the U.S. visa revocation for AMLO's son

MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026 · 1 response

The revocation of the U.S. visa of AMLO´s eldest son, known as “Andy”, was a low-cost, secretive, and unexplained administrative measure targeting a man with no formal government role that triggered a political crisis wildly disproportionate to the act itself, exposing deep fractures within Mexic...

Economics: Following the Q2 GDP rebound, a slowdown is expected in the second half of the year

MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2026

Second-quarter 2026 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 2.1% annually, but the strength came almost entirely from volatile or previously depressed components — mining, agriculture, residential construction, wholesale trade, and health services — that are unlikely to sustain their momentum throu...

Politics: Homicides declined in 2025, but the real numbers and the effectiveness of the government's strategy remain in question

MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2026

INEGI's preliminary 2025 homicide figures (27,989, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 inhabitants) confirm a genuine decline in intentional homicides, but one considerably smaller than the government claims. A gap of over 4,300 cases separates INEGI's count from the SNSP's. The gap is rooted in divergent...

Politics: Freedom of expression is at risk under a new initiative

MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026

Mexico's government is advancing Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (CRT) guidelines meant to regulate audience rights under Articles 6 and 7 of the Constitution and the 2025 Telecommunications Law, but the initiative has triggered sharp controversy. Critics argue the rules concentrate exce...

Economics: Mexico's public finances, Pemex and the CFE face mounting risks

MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026

The first half of 2026 reveals a fiscal fragility that the federal government has tried to ignore, and even to portray as evidence that public finances are strengthening. The fiscal deficit barely narrowed, while the primary balance collapsed—evidence that a growing share of debt is being contrac...

Economics: July data reveal pockets of recovery but multiple vulnerabilities on the economic front

MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026

Mexico's economy enters the second half of 2026 with a headline growth figure that overstates the strength of the underlying recovery. The second-quarter rebound rests heavily on volatile components—agriculture, mining, wholesale trade, and an unusually large jump in residential construction that...

Politics: 2027 electoral scenarios and their implications

MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026

Morena enters the 2027 midterms as the dominant force. Its ceiling, however, is already visible: vote intention hovers between 39% and 47%, with another six to nine points from the PT and PVEM, and the realistic direction of the trend is downward. The party's assets — a consolidated social base, ...

Economics: Mazzucato's document for implementing Plan México is unviable in the context of the current Administration's policies

MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026

Last week, what appears to be a preliminary version of the report "State Transformation for Plan Mexico" was made public, prepared by Mariana Mazzucato and Lara Merling of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London. In principle, this presentation is intended to ...

Politics: Shielding allies, targeting rivals, and the politics of Mexican justice amid the erosion of the rule of law

MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026

Two nearly simultaneous scandals have thrust Mexico's fractured rule of law back into the spotlight: leaked audio recordings implicating Baja California Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila in apparent negotiations with U.S. authorities, and the arrest and prosecution of former Governor Ernesto Ruffo ...

Economics: Recent positive gross fixed investment figures should be taken with caution

MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2026

Gross fixed investment posted its first annual increase in April 2026 (5.1%) after 20 consecutive months of decline — a figure hailed in official media as a sign of recovery, even though the January-April cumulative figure remains negative (-1.0%) and starts from a very low base of comparison. Th...

Politics: The relationship between organized crime and politics in Mexico and Latin America — what is its magnitude and what does it imply?

MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2026

Mexican politics and organized crime are bound together not by a single, uniform relationship but by a layered continuum whose intensity varies sharply from one territory to another. At its most basic, criminal groups purchase the omission of police and officials through bribery; further along th...

Economics: The USMCA—complex, recurring negotiations amid recent sensitive trade imbalances

MEXICO · Report · 13 Jul 2026

On July 1, Mexico, the U.S., and Canada announced that the USMCA will remain in effect through 2036 (rather than through 2042, as Mexico and Canada had proposed), with annual reviews beginning on that date and formally starting on July 20. Talks are expected to be nearly continuous, covering rule...