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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Pemex crude exports fall as company and public finances continue to deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

Official information regarding the evolution of Petróleos Mexicanos' financial and operating situation, as well as the performance of public finances as of the first quarter of 2024 was released in the last few days. Pemex registered a relative improvement between January and March in some of its...

Politics: Impact of the second presidential debate and a troubling legislative agenda
MEXICO · Report · 06 May 2024

The second of three presidential candidates’ debates was held on April 28. Unlike the first event on April 7, in which Xóchitl Gálvez was widely seen as having squandered a crucial opportunity to eat into Claudia Sheinbaum’s lead, this time the opposition coalition nominee appeared better prepare...

Economics: Inflation proves stubborn and public finances continue to deteriorate
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2024

Economic news over the past month included some unexpectedly positive numbers even as the economy continues to slow. Private consumption grew, but at less than half the 2023 rate, and most of the increase is coming from a forex-fueled demand for imported goods at the expense of the competitivenes...

Politics: Latest poll numbers show Gálvez failing to expand support even as the incumbent camp weakens
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The latest GEA-ISA survey of registered voters contained some encouraging news for the opposition coalition. Support for Morena dropped by as much as 8 points between March and April. President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen 12 points since September to one of his lowest readings in o...

Economics: Growing Chinese presence in Mexico’s automotive sector sparks concern in the US, posing risks to Mexico under the USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 23 Apr 2024

China's increasing presence in the Mexican automotive sector has drawn considerable expressions of dissatisfaction among US authorities and politicians, as well as from US labor unions, objections that have been exacerbated this key election year. Both President Joe Biden and candidate Donald Tr...

Politics: A sweeping scandal involving the Judiciary and the Executive tarnishes the entire system
MEXICO · Report · 22 Apr 2024

The Supreme Court announced on April 12 that it had ordered the Council of the Federal Judiciary to launch an investigation into an anonymous complaint of widespread acts of corruption by officials of the Judicial Branch during Arturo Zaldívar's time as Chief Justice of the Court (January 2019 to...

Economics: US industry’s stalling trend and the super peso continue to undercut Mexico's manufacturing
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2024

Last week’s industrial activity report for February confirmed a continuation of its slowing trend. The construction sector remained almost the only source of growth but its pace slowed to a rate well below the average of the previous nine months. US industrial production’s stalling trend dati...

Politics: In a context of lackluster campaigns, the first presidential debate probably only had a marginal impact
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2024

With Xóchitl Gálvez trailing by 17 points and only 8% of registered voters still undecided according to the latest El Financiero poll, and less than six weeks left to the campaign, time is running out for the main opposition presidential candidate to begin making significant inroads with undecide...

Politics: Races tighten for several governorships in play this June, with major implications for the federal elections
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2024

Nine states, including Mexico City, will hold gubernatorial elections the same days as the presidential contest this year, and considering that the nine account for 35% of all registered voters in Mexico, what happens at the state level could have a major influence on the outcome of the president...

Economics: Public finances got off to a dismal start as the 2025 Pre-Criteria are a cause of alarm
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The week before last, the Ministry of Finance released its reports on both public finances for January-February 2024 and Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025 (PCGPE). The public finance report shows a deterioration that the economic package approved for 2024 had anticipated, but it has unfolded ...

Politics: How voters are assessing the current administration’s performance in specific policy areas
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2024

In the second half of our analysis of the GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters conducted in early March, we turn attention away from matters of presidential approval and voter support for this year’s presidential candidates and political parties and focus on citizens' perception...

Economics: More signs of decelerating manufacturing as public finances and monetary policy raise concerns
MEXICO · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Economic data published this past month continued to bear out our projection of a slowdown in early 2024. As predicted, manufacturing contracted anew in January, largely in response to slackened demand from US industry. In Mexico, drivers of economic activity remain primarily domestic as the exte...

Economics: Strong wage growth continues even as hiring slows in tandem with the economy
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Job growth remains strong even as it has slowed in recent months, primarily in a stalling manufacturing sector, but even there and throughout the economy, wage growth remains robust. Hiring continues to be much more pronounced in the formal rather than informal sector even three years after a 202...

Politics: With only marginal shifts in GEA-ISA’s latest presidential race poll, Xóchitl faces major challenges in the final 10 weeks
MEXICO · Report · 18 Mar 2024

President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen for a second consecutive quarter, and opposition presidential nominee Xóchitl Gálvez recouped three points of voting intentions, according to the latest GEA-ISA nationwide quarterly poll of registered voters. Mexico was only 24 hours into the g...

Economics: Revenue shortfalls and accelerating spending again squeeze public finances, with further deterioration foreseeable this year
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Public balances (budgetary, primary and total financial requirements) experienced a significant deterioration in the first month of the year that was in line with the trend of recent months. Although monthly balances tend to be marked by significant volatility, the factors that determined the lat...

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