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Economics: The non-tariff barriers US cites put Mexico at a disadvantage in the upcoming USMCA review and potential renegotiation
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2025

The positions on non-tariff barriers being cited by the current US administration loom large over the USMCA review and possible renegotiation, a process the three signature countries are scheduled to jointly engage in beginning next July. The barriers Washington points to were outlined in a US Tr...

Politics: Sheinbaum's administration under fire on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2025

With Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential administration now into its second year, prospects are not as bright as they once appeared. Sheinbaum had everything going for her, including AMLO’s legacy and high approval ratings and a weak opposition. But her incapacity to break with AMLO’s erroneous poli...

Economics: A complex public finance picture compounded with a bigger bailout of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025 · 1 response

Public finances maintained in September the same basic trend seen in previous months. In the revenue column a deterioration in oil revenues contrasted with higher tax and non-tax revenues. In expenditures, there was a reduction in programmable spending that was particularly severe in the case of ...

Politics: Killing of Michoacán mayor sparks outrage over weakness in Sheinbaum’s response to organized crime
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The high-profile murder on November 1 of Carlos Manzo Rodriguez, mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán, has sparked enormous pent-up indignation nationwide and put the spotlight on President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public security policies. Manzo, who had previously been a Morena congressional deputy but bolte...

Economics: A sputtering economy and a complex public finance outlook as the monetary policy spread narrows
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Data released in October shows the economy continues to spiral downward under the weight of declining productive investment and private consumption. The same weakness is reflected in the labor market, with declining numbers of formal sector jobs being somewhat offset by more people finding inform...

Politics: PAN at the crossroads, seeking better fortunes with a relaunch and a new face, identity, and organizational style
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Mexico’s largest opposition political party — the PAN —appears to be realizing that it is in an existential crisis and needs a major shakeup, overhaul, and new identity. The evidence is overwhelming: party membership is down to 200,000, which contrasts with Morena’s campaign for 10 million new af...

Economics: The latest IGAE figures project further slowing in the third quarter and stagnation for 2025
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2025

IGAE figures for August show a weak economy with deterioration in the second half of the year, as this index registered zero growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate for the month, after falling -1.2% in July. This implies that, on average, the economy fell -0.6% at an annual rate in July-Augu...

Politics: The 4T moves to further restrict the power and independence of the judicial system
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2025

In the ongoing battle to defend the role and independence of the judicial branch of government, the latest front involves the legislative decision to amend the Amparo Law. Those in favor of reforming the Amparo Law charge that it has been used to shield the rich and powerful, especially high-end ...

Economics: Stagnant employment sets the stage for further weakening of private consumption in late 2025 and early 2026
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025

The total employed population in Mexico shrank -0.3% yoy in August and on average for the first eight months of this year it remains flat, according to ENOE figures. This flatlining follows the trend of slowing job growth that began last year and is in line with the sputtering of the economy over...

Politics: Mexico’s foreign policy under Morena's governments
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025

Since the 1930s, Mexican foreign policy has been based in theory on the Estrada Doctrine as codified in two principles: non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and national self-determination. Independently of domestic policies and whichever president was in office, Mexico’s a...

Economics: New energy sector regulations open doors to private investment, but the legal uncertainty is too off-putting
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2025

Decrees that appeared in the October 3 Official Gazette of the Federation contain regulations for six secondary laws in the energy sector: the Energy Planning and Transition Law, the Hydrocarbons Sector Law, the Electricity Sector Law, the Biofuels Law, the Geothermal Energy Law, and the Hydrocar...

Politics: Fraud and extortion continue to rise, with a very low percentage of victims reporting these offenses
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2025

Two Mexican government reports reveal the reality of crime in the country, the victims and their responses, and public security perception on the part of the population. INEGI has just published its 2025 Survey on Victimization and Public Security Perception. It is based on household surveys and ...

Politics: USMCA review and the 2027 midterm elections are key to defining Sheinbaum’s second year in office
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2025

Recently we presented an initial balance sheet of the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in terms of economic performance and social indicators. In this report, we will consider the main political issues, their ramifications and possible scenarios for her second year in office...

Economics: Further evidence of weaker activity according to September data
MEXICO · Report · 06 Oct 2025

Economic indicators released in September confirmed a slowing economy. Inegi’s industrial activity report for July shows the sector’s most pronounced contraction since October 2024, potentially setting the stage for a negative full-year contribution to GDP. Thus, chances for 2025 GDP growth would...

Economics: The initiative to raise tariffs on 1,463 products will lead to increased costs and a loss of competitiveness in some sectors
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 9, one day after the Economic Package was presented, the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) sent an initiative to modify the General Law on Import and Export Taxes (LIGIE). The initiative seeks to increase tariffs on 1,463 items by between 10% and up to 50% for the period from January to Dec...

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