GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The strategic plans presented by the Federal Government for both Pemex and CFE are insufficient to deal with the structural challenges they face. Pemex is plagued by significant accumulated losses caused by segments such as its Transformación Industrial subsidiary, for which no specific measures ...

Politics: Sheinbaum moves to address Trump’s threats to Mexico

MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2024

Even before taking office, US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies toward Mexico indicate a hard-core stance that could potentially inflict considerable harm on the country’s economy. While not coming as a surprise given his past performance and the promises made to his base during the recent ...

Politics: Constitutional reforms pose a direct threat to democratic governance

MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024

Barely two months into Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, it is clear that Morena and its coalition partners are determined to move full speed ahead with the 4T's proposed constitutional reforms, actively backed by the new president. Taken as a whole, the 20 reforms proposed by AMLO (18 constitu...

Economics: Indicators point to further slowdown, as anticipated

MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024

Indicators were released during November that point to a more pronounced slowdown at the end of this year. Gross fixed capital formation fell an annual 0.9% in August, the first decline since February 2021, with construction experiencing a notable decrease. Industrial production remained weak in ...

Economics: Analysis of the recent evolution of the public finances and the main implications of the 2025 Economic Package

MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2024

On November 15, the Ministry of Finance presented the Economic Package for next year, which includes the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2025 (CGPE) as well as the proposed Revenue Law and the Federal Expenditure Budget. In our opinion, the most important aspect of this package is the applic...

Politics: The 2025 budget reveals the 4T’s true political priorities, but simply doesn’t address the key problems with public finances

MEXICO · Report · 25 Nov 2024

The overarching consideration underpinning the Sheinbaum administration’s 2025 budget proposal, which was released late Friday before last, is to ensure Morena's permanence in power through cash transfers delivered from multiple social programs. In the budget proposal, these will account for 9% o...

Questions from our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration"

MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024

We received a number of questions from participants that we didn't have time to answer during our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration". In this report, we answer these questions, which deal with topics such as Pemex, the auto industry, constitutional reform a...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration

MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024

How will Claudia Sheinbaum's government cope with a slowing economy? Will it be able to maintain the harmony of between inflation, wages, interest rates and the exchange rate? How effective will the 2025 fiscal program be in controlling the growth of public debt? What impact will the incoming US ...

Economics: High risk of tariffs and trade sanctions generates investment uncertainty

MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The victory of Donald Trump, together with the Republican majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress, indicates that it is practically a given that there will be pressure to threaten to impose tariffs on Mexico. The aim would be to force the Mexican government to toughen measures to prevent the...

Politics: The challenges facing the new PAN leadership

MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday, November 11, the PAN, Mexico’s main opposition party, renewed its leadership, with its newly elected president, Jorge Romero, promising a thoroughgoing reform. However, the obstacles are formidable, beginning with Romero’s very diminished credibility. His reputation has been tarnished ...

Economics: Gross fixed capital formation in August posts a contraction due to a significant weakening in construction

MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The Inegi published figures for gross fixed capital formation as of August, which showed an annual -0.9% contraction. This was the first decline since February 2021 and is attributable to a -6.0% contraction in construction investment, while the machinery and equipment component increased 5.0%. ...

Politics: Judicial reform becomes constitutional, with no other option left for opponents

MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2024

On Tuesday, November 5, what was the last hope for opponents of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador and newly inaugurated President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Judicial Reform vanished into thin air as, at the last minute, the Supreme Court failed by one vote to obtain the 8 vs 3 majority required to rule on its...

Economics: October data shows a lackluster economy as public finances deteriorate further and the inflation outlook remains murky

MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

A review of indicators published in October confirms the slow coasting of the economy and an accelerating deterioration of public finances. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere 3 bps in August, largely in response to a sharp drop in civil engineering works, while manufacturing again grew ...

Politics: Embedded and emboldened organized crime groups with links to the government are a major problem for Sheinbaum

MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The most striking feature of most balance sheets of security under López Obrador's government was the level of violence. Despite official statistics registering a downtrend in homicides in the past two years, for AMLO’s entire six years in office there were close to 200,000 murders and more than ...

Economics: Additional social programs and lack of fiscal reform spell further deterioration of public finances

MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2024

The Ministry of Finance will deliver the 2025 Economic Package to the Chamber of Deputies on November 15. Only then will it be possible to learn in detail about the current government's policies, ostensibly aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit, guaranteeing the financing of social programs and in...