GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights | Peru

We have decided to call for an extended policy pause at Banco Central de Reserva del Perú's (BCRP, the central bank) Board meeting on July 11th. Although in our June report we had called for a 25bp cut, the Instituto de Estadística e Informática's (INEI, the statistical institute) June inflation ...

Congress prepares for 2026 elections; we expect the fiscal deficit to widen, and the CA to remain in surplus; Central Bank will keep cutting, but more policy pauses can’t be ruled out

PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2024

In this report, we begin by discussing politics, focusing on the high number of laws approved by Congress that will shape the 2026 presidential and congressional elections. We then summarize our forecasts on the economy. We start by discussing our base, low and high-case scenarios, followed by re...

President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end

PERU · Report · 21 May 2024

We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...

Boluarte government weakened further; economic recovery takes off in Q1 2024; BCRP’s 25bp cut surprises markets

PERU · Report · 16 Apr 2024

In this report we discuss recent political developments, with a focus on President Dina Boluarte; using high-frequency economic reports, we present our updated forecast, and argue that the economy rebounded in Q1 2024; and discuss the BCRP Board’s decision to cut rates by 25bp, surprising both ma...

Peru: pension funds withdrawal to be approved on Thursday

PERU · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024 · 1 response

As expected, today Congress scheduled the vote on the pension funds withdrawal bill at its Thursday congressional plenary. The bill calls for pension funds’ contributors to be able to withdraw up to four Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, or tax-inflation-indexed units). This would allow eac...

Peru: Prime Minister in Congress

PERU · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén and his Cabinet were in Congress this morning requesting the rejection to the no confidence vote. In his speech said that his priorities were the economic recovery and internal security. Although President Boluarte is under scrutiny on an apparent failure to decla...

Gustavo Adriansén appointed new Prime minister

PERU · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Prime Minister Alberto Otárola resigned. He had been under pressure and turned into a drag on President Dina Boluarte. An edited audio released on a prime TV program Panorama on Sunday night had prompted his resignation. In this audio he is listened offering a job in the government to...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns

PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...

Centrist parties hit by accusations; economy enters recession; BCRP to cut rates in October

PERU · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we offer an update on the Peruvian political scene; on the country’s economic performance; and on the timing of the first Central Bank rate cut. We argue that, while political risk has eased, President Dina Boluarte remains isolated and unpopular. The political capital of the two ...

Peru: Boluarte vows for consensus

PERU · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Today President Boluarte went to Congress and delivered her annual speech. Being highly unpopular, the speech was an attempt to reach out the opposition and the population at large. Left-wing parties are demanding her resignation, although they do not have the votes in Congress to force an impeac...

Peru: Peaceful protests

PERU · In Brief · 20 Jul 2023

Last night the announced protests by the leftists groups and unions took place. They were more peaceful than anticipated and according to Interior Minister, Vicente Romero, gathered in total 21,000 protesters, of whom 8 were injured (4 civilians and 4 policemen) and 6 detained. Although the prote...

Political scene remains uncertain; El Niño introduces downside risk; we retain our call for an August rate cut

PERU · Report · 11 Jul 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we focus on three main topics. First, we discuss the expected busy political calendar for July. On July 19th, left-wing organizations and parties are planning a march into Lima, similar that of January 28th. On July 26th, Congress will elect its new president and board. And on Jul...

A political impasse; economy falls into recession; BCRP to start cutting rates in Q2

PERU · Report · 14 Feb 2023 · 2 responses

In this analysis we focus on the current political impasse, and its consequences for economic performance and monetary policy. With gridlock in Congress and the body’s related inability to approve early elections, public pressure may play a greater role. We argue that there are four possible outc...

Castillo’s last dance; real GDP slows to 1.5% in H2; BCRP projected to end hiking cycle at 7.5%

PERU · Report · 18 Oct 2022 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on three key topics. First, we discuss the implications for President Pedro Castillo of the decision by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación to submit to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for “leading a criminal organization.” Second, we argue t...

Peru’s mid-term elections: a major defeat for President Castillo

PERU · In Brief · 02 Oct 2022

Today, Peru elected regional and local authorities--Governors and Mayors. This was the first-time voters went back to the ballots since the July 28, 2021, election when President Castillo was elected. From the first exit polls released today at 5pm (new results are due tonight at 10pm Lima time),...