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Peru: Referendum on a Constitutional Assembly
PERU · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On Monday and with the approval of the Cabinet, President Pedro Castillo and Prime Minister, Mr. Anibal Torres, submitted to Congress a draft proposal calling for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly due on October 2nd, and at the time of mid-term State and Municipalities elections. The draf...

Webinar Replay - Crisis in Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2022

Gain insights into Peru's political crisis and gauge how the turmoil will impact the country’s political and macro outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing the protests against President Castillo and the likely fallout from the crisis.

Castillo against the wall; further downside economic risks; Central Bank to deliver two more 50-bp shots
PERU · Report · 12 Apr 2022

​Faced with widespread nationwide protests, and after his advisors warned of possible serious disturbances in Lima, President Pedro Castillo delivered an April 5th midnight speech, during which he imposed an immediate 22-hour curfew in Lima and Callao. The demonstrations had begun on March 28th, ...

Peru: President Castillo against the wall
PERU · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

Last night the political crisis reached a new high point. Although President Castillo had imposed a 22 hours curfew and suspension of individual liberties at midnight on April 5th, people went massively to the streets to protest and ask for his resignation. Protests had started on March 29th when...

President Castillo faces impeachment; fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2022

Congress on March 8th rejected the no-confidence vote in the cabinet of Prime Minister Aníbal Torres. Although President Pedro Castillo has been in office for less than eight months, this is already his fourth cabinet, and the third to undergo such a vote. The previous cabinet, led by Héctor Vale...

Castillo’s last try, and the economic impact of the political crisis
PERU · Report · 15 Feb 2022

It was not difficult to project that Pedro Castillo’s main challenge as president would be to forge a credible government. Castillo was encouraged by Perú Libre party General Secretary Vladimir Cerrón to run for president, but neither man held high expectations of Castillo succeeding. Close inspe...

Peru's new Cabinet: First reactions
PERU · In Brief · 03 Feb 2022 · 1 response

On Tuesday night President Castillo took oath to the new Cabinet. Of the 19 members, President Castillo changed 10, including the Prime Minister and Finance Minister. The previous Cabinet reached a crisis point when President Castillo decided not to support his Interior Minister, Mr. Avelino Guil...

Peru: New political crisis looms
PERU · In Brief · 31 Jan 2022

A few minutes ago, Ms. Mirtha Vasquez, the Prime Minister, resigned. This follows last week resignation of interior Minister, Mr. Avelino Guillen on the back of President Castillo decision to support General Gallardo in the police and failing to back his plan to clean up the police. Although the ...

Castillo realigns political support; mining protests introduce risks to growth
PERU · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The rapid fall in President Pedro Castillo’s popularity since he formed his government on July 28th has been surprising. Most previous presidents have either continued to sail for a longer “honeymoon period” on the wave of the high popularity that carried them into office, or have at least able t...

Castillo’s government weakens; growth likely to moderate in 2022‒23
PERU · Forecast · 14 Dec 2021

Popular support for the government of President Pedro Castillo continues to dwindle, at a surprisingly rapid pace. Last week the government averted an impeachment process in Congress by only six votes. This perilous state has developed only four months after Castillo stepped into office. Without ...

Peru: President Castillo impeachment moves forward
PERU · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021 · 1 response

On November 25th, congress member Ms. Patricia Chirinos from Avanza Pais party started an impeachment process against President Castillo. According to the constitution the impeachment takes three phases. First, and with 26 congressional votes, the process is started; second, with 52 congress memb...

No letup in political risk, as government prepares tax package
PERU · Report · 22 Nov 2021

When Mirtha Vásquez was chosen by President Pedro Castillo to replace Guido Bellido as prime minister, most analysts took this as an indication that the president was moving toward a more moderate, conciliatory sociopolitical stance, and markets rallied in response. In fact, out of the eight mini...

President Castillo reshuffles Cabinet; real GDP growth forecast revised up
PERU · Report · 21 Oct 2021

President Pedro Castillo reshuffled his Cabinet on October 6th. This followed a two-month period in which Castillo’s main challenges have originated in his own Cabinet, especially among representatives of his Perú Libre party, and the party’s head, pro-Cuban left-wing radical Vladimir Cerrón. Whi...

Peru: President Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 08 Oct 2021

On Tuesday night, October 5, President Castillo, dismissed his controversial Prime Minister Mr. Guido Bellido and reshuffled his Cabinet. Overall the message is positive. Mr. Bellido was a highly controversial individual and many times undercut President Castillo. The latest was the nomination of...

Caught in a crossfire, Castillo offers more government spending
PERU · Report · 21 Sep 2021

After seven weeks in government, the new president has proven difficult to read. Pedro Castillo’s indecisiveness may be explained by his being caught in the crossfire between his own supporters and the opposition parties in Congress. Castillo has so far kept a low profile: he has delivered only o...

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