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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Dog days of summer
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

Alert levels are expected to go up again over the Luzon grid as the hot summer months test the grid’s thin reserves. Data[1] show that from the last week of April through the third week of June, the Luzon grid is forecast to be on yellow alert. This means that the gap between supply and demand wi...

March inflation decelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Apr 2023

The headline inflation rate was reported at 7.6% in March, down from 8.6% in February and is below the median analyst estimate of 8.1%. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the price level was unchanged from a month ago, due largely to a 14% drop in the item “vegetables, tubers, cooking bananas and pu...

Policy reform notes
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We turn our attention away from the banking turmoil in the west and look at some recent domestic policy developments. We find some of these good in terms of helping to improve the local investment climate, some less clear in terms of their economy-wide net benefit, and others, more distracting th...

Monetary Board raises interest rates by 25bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023

As Governor Felipe Medalla signaled earlier, the Monetary Board raised its set of policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight borrowing rate to 6.25% effective tomorrow. Per the Governor, the decision to increase policy rates was mainly influenced by still rising core inflation in February, stil...

February inflation at 8.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

The headline inflation rate slid from a 15-year high of 8.7% in January to 8.6% in February. It was below analysts’ expectations (8.9% median) and within the BSP’s forecast for the month (8.5% to 9.6%) but it basically reflected unchanged prices on the average, i.e., zero month-on-month inflation...

Down the rabbit hole (again)
PHILIPPINES · Report · 03 Mar 2023

We enter 2023 as if going down a rabbit hole, not quite sure if surprises ahead will be the pleasant or biting sort. Although global growth is still expected to weaken, China’s re-opening offers hope of larger rebound, especially in tourism. Too, although financial conditions remain tight, infl...

Policy rates up by another 50bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Feb 2023

Following surprisingly strong January inflation, the Monetary Board today decided to raise its set of policy rates by 50bp, bringing the key overnight rate to 6% effective tomorrow, the highest since 2008. The BSP also raised its inflation forecast for the year sharply from 4.3% to 6.1% while kee...

Inflation is a problem
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Feb 2023

A particularly strong 1.7%[1] month-on-month (mom) jump in consumer prices sent the headline inflation rate to 8.7% in January, the highest since late 2008. The surprise inflation outturn is above analysts’ forecasts (median 7.6%) as well as the BSP’s (7.5-8.3%). About 60% of the increase in mom ...

7.2% 4Q GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

The economy grew much faster than we had expected in 4Q with the 7.2% year-on-year (yoy) growth rate reflecting a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter growth clip. Features of 4Q growth include: Still robust consumer spending which grew 7%, slowing down from the previous quarter’s 8% growth. Despite rising in...

“Soft launch” for the Maharlika Fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

In Davos for this week’s World Economic Forum (WEF), President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. had been busy making a pitch for investing in the Philippines. Bringing with him his economic managers and select members of congress, and with the country’s most prominent tycoons in tow, the message he conveyed...

Friend to all enemy to none
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

Ever since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. came into office in July last year, his foreign affairs team has been busily working at re-centering Philippine foreign policy after the extreme pro-US then pro-China stances of the previous two administrations. In his words, President Marcos defined his foreign p...

Inflation continues to rise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jan 2023 · 1 response

The headline inflation rate inched up from 8% in November to 8.1% in December, below the median analysts’ forecast of 8.3%. Month-on-month (mom) inflation rose 0.3%, weaker than the 0.9% mom increase in the prior two months. The better-than-expected outturn may be traced mainly to the decline in ...

Policy rates up by 50bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

As widely expected, the Monetary Board of the BSP raised its set of policy rates by 50bp effective tomorrow. This brings the key overnight rate to 5.5%, the highest since end-2008. During the Q&A, BSP Governor Felipe Medalla said that there is no basis for ruling out further rate increases next y...

A closer look at the Maharlika fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

Last Friday, after over a week of intense public debate about the rationale and sources of funds of a congressional initiative to set up a sovereign wealth fund, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno stepped up to own the proposal. In a press briefing, he read a statement signed by the core members o...

Inflation quickened to 8%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Dec 2022

The headline inflation rate rose to 8% in November, up from 7.7% in October. Price increases continued to show momentum with the month-on-month rate rising 0.9%, driven by both higher food prices, particularly vegetables, and services like public transport and restaurants. Core inflation similarl...

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