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Domestic demand shrinks in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 30 May 2025

The Turkish economy grew by 1% in the first quarter of the year, sequentially, which was notably less than expected (around 1.5%), while annual growth was 2.0%, y/y (Graph 1). The expenditure composition of growth is starkly different in annual vs. sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, with domes...

On the eve of a scorching hot summer
TURKEY · Report · 25 May 2025

President Erdogan is finally leading the charge to write a new constitution, which will incidentally grant him the right to run a third time. Yet, he is facing massive obstacles, which have not lessened despite PKK’s decision to disband. Erdogan and his ally Bahceli still don’t seem to grasp that...

Not much new in the Inflation Report
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2025

The CBRT released the second Inflation Report of the year today. As expected, the Bank maintained its yearend inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24% (midpoint of 19-29%) and 12% (midpoint of 6-18%), respectively (as well as the 2027 forecast at 8%).

The fork in the road
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2025

With PKK declaring an end to the armed struggle, Turkey’s half century-long nightmare of violent separatism is finally over. Now is the time to build on this success to draft a new constitution, preferably ratified in parliament to address the grievance of Kurds. Yet, exactly how Messrs. Erdog...

Is the worst over yet?
TURKEY · Report · 11 May 2025

While it is not officially announced, Turkey’s number one public enemy, PKK almost certainly said farewell to arms. While from the standpoint of the military-intelligence establishment, the terror threat will not cease until Syrian Kurds dissolve into the Syrian central administration, Messrs. Er...

April inflation broadly as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2025

Monthly CPI inflation came in at 3%, m/m, in April, slightly below consensus forecasts of around 3.2%, with the 12-month rate easing slightly further to just under 38% (37.9%), from just over (38.1%) in March. Domestic producer prices (D-PPI) rose by 2.8%, m/m, in the month, which led to a full p...

A summer in purgatory
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 May 2025

The “narrow corridor” of 2025 that we’ve long been referring to, that of a CBRT traveling a tricky path between edgy politics and tenuous investor sentiment, has gotten narrower and more precarious quite a bit sooner than we anticipated. In this brief update to our previous quarterly/forecast ...

Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025

The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...

Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...

MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025

At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...

CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025

President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...

Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025

The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...

Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...

Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...

Webinar Replay - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalS...

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