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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Good enough to start?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2024

Consumer prices rose by 2.2%, m/m, in November, slightly higher than the consensus forecast of around 2%, and our forecast of just under 2%. The 12-month rate nevertheless eased to 47.1% from 48.6% in October. Monthly domestic PPI inflation posted a modest increase of 0.7%, with the 12-month rate...

In technical recession, light
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2024

In the third quarter, Turkish GDP rose by 2.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, but contracted slightly by 0.2% (sequentially) over the previous quarter in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted (SA) terms. With the downward revision of the second quarter sequential growth rate to -0.2%, q/...

Politics fluid, economy reasonably solid
TURKEY · Report · 24 Nov 2024

There is a lot of activity in the Turko-American relations, which according to the view of the political author, promises more upside than vice-versa, but it will take some time to work out the kinks. At home, Erdogan is redoubling the crackdown on opponents of all stripes, probably as a show ...

Rate unchanged, statement visibly more dovish
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2024

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 50% at today’s meeting, in line with expectations. The statement (link here) turned visibly more dovish in our view, enhancing the probability of a December rate cut, assuming that November inflation does not badly surprise on the ups...

Back in the twilight zone of Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone once again, where the unthinkable quickly becomes the norm. The politics essays start with reports of President Erdogan planning to send the military to Syria once again, to deal the final blow to the reigning Kurdish military-political entity PYD/YPG. W...

Erdogan throws hat into ring----amidst war drums
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone after a brief experiment with “normalization”, which is a wind of fresh breath for Yours Truly, who has become a crisis junkie long time ago. Just like the good old days, each new dawn brings fresh shocks, most of which contradict the main developments o...

Higher hopes in diplomacy meet higher inflation forecasts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Ankara has Great Expectations from the second Trump presidency, some of which seem plausible. Yet, it is somewhat premature to make precise forecasts of exactly in which topic progress can be made in the troubled bi-lateral relationship, until Trump selects his cabinet. Additionally, what Trum...

In between a rock and a hard place on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2024 · 1 response

In the last Inflation Report of the year, the CBRT revised the inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 materially upwards to 44% (from 38%) and 21% (from 14%), respectively (both midpoints). While the former is no surprise at this point, the latter revision is a bit more significant than we...

Erdogan declares war on Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

Barely had the Turkish body-politic recovered from the sacking of CHP Esenyurt (Istanbul) mayor, Prof Ahmet Ozturk, Erdogan dealt a second blow to tranquility by ordering the ouster of three Kurdish (DEM Party) mayors in the provinces of Mardin, Batman as well as the Halfeti town in the province ...

October inflation: some good, some bad news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 2.9%, m/m, in October, markedly exceeding consensus forecasts of around 2.5%, with the 12-month rate nevertheless falling to 48.6% from 49.4%, on the back of continuing base effects. Monthly PPI inflation was a more modest 1.3%, with the 12-month rat...

Audentes Fortuna Iuvat
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2024

Turkey’s bombastic and excitable pundit community discussed nothing but the peace offering of MHP leader Mr. Bahceli to Kurds. President Erdogan is generally supportive of Bahceli, but has so far refused to take the leadership of a new Peace Process, as talks on addressing Kurds’ grievances are c...

Politics gets chaotic, economics business as usual
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2024

In yet another startling development to mark the end of a remarkable October, MHP leader Bahceli invited the incarcerated leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, to address Kurdish party DEM’s parliamentary caucus, raising hopes for a second Peace Process. If PKK declares a cease-fire and renounces v...

U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2024

In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly...

Heightened uncertainty over disinflation pace acknowledged, but...
TURKEY · Report · 17 Oct 2024

As expected, the CBRT/MPC remained on hold today, keeping the policy rate (one week repo) at 50%. The first paragraph appears to have been modified somewhat, while the rest of the statement regarding disinflation strategy and monetary policy guidance is exactly the same with September statement.

Think global, act local
TURKEY · Report · 11 Oct 2024

After pondering at length developments in the Middle East, Ukraine war and the US presidential elections, the political analyst has decided to dedicate a major portion of his contribution to this monthly report to potential exogenous shocks, which would completely wreck Mehmet Simsek’s Economic S...

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