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Stubborn inflation, desperate corporates
TURKEY · Report · 05 Oct 2025

The politics author starts with the story of the takeover of Ciner Holding on charges of money laundering. There is not much new in macro-politics, which shall be covered in depth in our upcoming monthly that we plan for next Sunday, while for the politics author the takeover of all Ciner Holding...

Another poor inflation print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2025

Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 3.2%, m/m, in September (consensus: 2.5%, ours slightly higher) with the 12-month rate rising -- for the first time since May 2024 -- to 33.3% from 33.0% in August. PPI inflation increased by 2.5% m/m, lifting the annual rate to 26.6% from 25.2%...

Tales on a summit
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2025

Amidst much hype and misinformation, Messrs. Erdogan and Trump finally met. The summit was significant, because the respective teams spent 2 hours and 20 minutes behind closed doors. The politics author concludes in his single essay for the week that the outcome was largely favorable, although co...

Next Stop: Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025

Early yesterday, an Ankara prosecutor ordered the arrest of 13 employees of the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality and independent contractors on charges of “overspending” ca. TL 150 mn ($4-5 mn depending on the exchange rates prevailing at the date of events). These accusations had been headlined ...

Mr. Erdogan goes to Washington
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2025

Erdogan added another one to Turkey’s recent gains in foreign policy by scoring an invitation from Trump to the White House on the 25th of September. Trump may visit Turkey in October too. The politics author anticipates a lucrative meeting for the US, and a productive one for Turkey. Gaza and Is...

Webinar replay - Turkey politics: CHP vs. Goliath
TURKEY · Report · 19 Sep 2025

As the Erdogan-controlled legal system aims to divide and paralyze CHP with lawsuits, what countermeasures is the party's chairman Ozel taking? Can the CHP continue as a functioning political party in the face of these attacks and the pending indictments of arrested CHP mayors? With the Peace Com...

CHP convention hearing postponed to 24 October
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025

Contrary to majority expectations, the Ankara court trying allegations that CHP Grand Convention, when Ozgur Ozel dethroned Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was rigged, postponed its hearing to 24 October. It is not certain that the bench will reach a verdict, than, either. As I write these lines at 2 PM Ista...

Lower rates, higher political tensions
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2025

There are more than 50% odds that on Monday an Ankara court will declare the Grand Convention of CHP, where Ozel toppled Kemal Kilicdaroglu, null and void, reinstating the latter as trustee chairman. The first essay explains why: Kilicdaroglu’s views are very convenient for Erdogan, who shows no ...

MPC reduces the policy rate more than expected
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2025

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more-than-expected 250 bps today to 40.5%, compared with a revised market consensus of 200 bps, with equal reductions in O/N lending and borrowing rates. To recall, until about 10 days ago, the consensus was another 300 bps cut, but this was revised down ...

Clashes in Istanbul, terror in Izmir
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

Gursel Tekin pits CHP followers against the police: The sacked CHP Istanbul provincial administration issued a call to members to congregate in front of the headquarters “to defend our ancestral home” against invader Gursel Tekin. Several hundred heeded the call marching towards the building, whe...

MTP 2026-28: Some quick thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 was published in the Official Gazette and presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and his economic team, including Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, at a press conference this morning. We lay out some quick thoughts below.

All eyes on CHP, MTP and CBRT
TURKEY · Report · 07 Sep 2025

The month of September will be action filled. In his first essay, the politics author tries to explain the deep web of traps the Erdogan-controlled legal system weaved for CHP, which is very difficult to recap in an executive summary. It suffices to say though that there are at least 8 lawsuits i...

CHP vs Goliath
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025

Turkey’s Judicial year started with little fanfare, but a sucker attack on CHP’s Istanbul flank. The 45th District Court passed interim ruling. Suspending fraud in the Party’s passed delegates selection for the Grant Convention. It sacked Istanbul Chairman and the 196 delegates elected by the str...

Little respite in August inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2025

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat higher than expected 2.0%, m/m, in August, with the 12-month rate easing modestly further to 33.0% from 33.5% in July. Monthly PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, on the back of a marked increase in energy/electricity prices, as the 12-month rate ...

Higher than expected Q2 growth, fueled by stock changes
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Sep 2025

According to data announced by Turkstat, second quarter GDP growth markedly exceeded expectations, including of this author, in both sequential and annual terms, coming in at 1.6%, q/q, and 4.8%, y/y, respectively (Graph 1). As usual we briefly focus on the sequential data here, which reflects th...

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