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Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...

Webinar Replay - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalS...

Updated excel sheet on CBRT reserve data
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2025 · 1 response

We have received some requests from our audience to have an updated version of the excel file that had been attached to our semi-technical note (from earlier this month). Updated excel sheet is here, the technical note that we hyperlinked to yesterday's brief is here (for your convenience), and t...

CBRT reserve update
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025 · 1 response

There is a lot of interest in CBRT reserve numbers these days for obvious reasons, so we thought it might be useful to send our latest estimates. In the three days from March 19 through 21, we estimate that the cumulative decline in net and gross reserves amounted to $26.6 billion and $19.2 billi...

Letters from the Insane Asylum
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2025

Former president Suleiman Demirel once remarked “24 hours is a very long time in Turkish politics”, which wisely describes the bind the nation finds itself in. The rival camps are moving their pieces at dizzying speed like in a Blitz chess game. Since our last writing on Sunday night, there is a ...

The day the earth stood still
TURKEY · Report · 23 Mar 2025

On Sunday, CHP mayor Imamoglu and 92 “accomplices” were found guilty of fraud and/or supporting terror organizations, with Imamoglu being sent to Silivri Correctional Facility. While it is not certain, the politics author (PA) takes a bet that the mayor will be soon replaced by a government-appoi...

On market volatility and CBRT actions: some preliminary reactions
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2025

After yesterday’s carnage in Turkish markets that reportedly led to some $10-$15 billion loss in reserves by some counts (driven mostly by foreign investor outflows, we hear), the CBRT has taken a number of actions today, which included raising the O/N lending rate by 200 bps to 46% from 44% prev...

Erdogan crosses the Rubicon, Imamoglu and over hundred names arrested
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon in his quest to regain eligibility for a third term. His choice is an all-out assault on CHP to paralyze the party, too weak to call for elections for or even maintain eligibility for them for the next year or so. Late yesterday, University of Istanbul invalidated ...

The mood music and stark realities
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2025

In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither...

Syria erupts, everyone frets
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

In the brief time span of 72 hours, Western Syria erupted in horrendous violence, with a free for all between Assad loyalists, Alawites, Sunnis and HTS and loosely affiliated radical jihadis, as the death toll reached a reported 1K by late Sunday. While sketchy news flow from cities like Latakia ...

A quick econ update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Mar 2025

Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly in February, but corroborated the ongoing stagnation in the manufacturing sector overall. Turkstat’s seasonally-adjusted numbers for February inflation suggest, improvements notwithstanding, the road ahead for the CBRT will most likely be rather bumpy. Meanw...

CBRT reserve estimates: a technical note
TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 2 responses

If there is one macro indicator that needs to be watched very closely in Turkey’s disinflation journey and to gauge the (economic) sustainability of the “program” more broadly, that’s the CBRT reserves.

Another 250 bps cut, more in store
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2025

The MPC/CBRT reduced the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 250 bps today, in line with expectations, including ours, to 42.5%. In terms of the content of the statement (link here), there was not a whole lot new. The statement began by noting that “the underlying trend of inflation decreas...

An encouraging print in the long disinflation journey
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2025

Consumer prices rose by a markedly lower than expected 2.3%, m/m, versus market consensus of 3% (February 2024: 4.5%). Our miss primarily stemmed from a better performance in food, and to a lesser extent textile and health sub-categories. The 12-month CPI inflation thus fell further to 39.1% -- a...

Peace hopes and rate cuts
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2025

PKK’s honorary leader Ocalan finally issued a call for PKK’s disarmament and self-abolition, which covers Syrian Kurds, too. While PKK’s immediate declaration of ceasefire is an encouraging response in terms pushing the process forward, “getting there” -- whether the end game is satisfying Kurdis...

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