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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Plot Thickens
TURKEY · Report · 24 Mar 2024 · 2 responses

Battle lines are frozen across the nation with one week left to elections. AKP-MHP have probably lost Ankara and Izmir and are struggling to make any gains against Imamoglu in Istanbul. CHP is sweating to keep its fortresses elsewhere, such as Antalya, Eskisehir and Edirne. While nothing can be r...

A good surprise, but road ahead no less difficult
TURKEY · Report · 21 Mar 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBRT surprised markets positively today by raising the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%, versus median expectations of no change. The MPC also adjusted “the monetary policy operational framework by setting the overnight borrowing and lending rates 300 basis...

It's all about the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2024

The races in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir turned largely static during the week, while new poll data from Anatolia was full of surprises. The politics author is confident in calling Ankara and Izmir for CHP incumbents, while Imamoglu stands a good chance to edge out AKP’s Kurum in Istanbul. Yet,...

It's crunch time, again
TURKEY · Report · 10 Mar 2024

With three weeks left to the poll day, available evidence suggests that CHP has wind in its sails, across the nation. Of course, this is part of the natural cycle of Turkish elections, where CHP always leads only to be defeated by last-minute “policy innovations” of Erdogan. Yet, this time around...

Poor print, a very tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 4.5% in February, with the 12-month CPI inflation rising visibly to 67.1%, y/y, from 64.9% in January. Producer price inflation was 3.7%, m/m, with the 12-month PPI-rate also rising to 47.3% in February, from 44.2% in the previous month. The slippage...

March spells survival of the fittest
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2024

The politics author hereby presents his preliminary predictions for local elections. In a nutshell, things are not looking good for President Erdogan at the moment. Ankara may have already slipped out of his grasp, while AKP candidate Kurum’s chances in Istanbul are no more than 50% in his view. ...

Damn the torpedoes...
TURKEY · Report · 29 Feb 2024

The Turkish economy grew by 4%, y/y, and 1%, q/q, in the final quarter of last year, with the latter, in particular, sharply stronger than we and, as far as we can tell, the consensus had expected. In 2023 as a whole, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 5.5% in 2022 (Graphs 1-2).

More on local elections and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2024

With 5 weeks left to the polling day, the municipal election race is heating up, already witnessing trend reversals. Poll results show CHP incumbents ahead in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. President Erdogan has a decisive propaganda advantage on opposition rivals, but he has two significant weaknes...

On a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2024

The CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate at 45% today, as expected. There were a number of additions and changes to the statement, which we highlight/comment on in our report. On a relatively minor note, there is now a relatively lengthy sentence on domestic demand conditions, which we read as an ack...

Post-election scenarios, a first take
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...

Not much new here
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024

With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...

Webinar Replay - Economic reform in Turkey and Argentina: comparative prospects
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Domingo Cavallo discussing economic policy in Argentina and Turkey as the countries try to shake off their reputations for economic mismanagement. Governments in both countries have committed themselves to economi...

Good presentation, let’s hope for the best
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2024

The CBRT released the first Inflation Report of the year under the new Governor. The Bank kept its yearend inflation forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 at 36% (midpoint of 30%-42%), and at 14% (midpoint of 7%-21%), respectively, unchanged from the October report, as we surmised earlier. The CBRT fo...

January inflation: as bad as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2024

Consumer prices rose by 6.7%, m/m, in January, somewhat higher than the market consensus of 6.5%-6.6%, with the 12-month rate rising slightly to 64.9%, from 64.8% a month ago. Wage hikes, particularly the increase in the minimum wage, as well as the beginning-of-the year price/tax adjustments wer...

Change at the CBRT and other news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Feb 2024 · 1 response

The CBRT Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan has departed under vague circumstances, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Fatih Karahan. Her successor’s reign will not witness a change in monetary policy settings, but could arguably create an opportunity to tighten it modestly. The political lesson from this...

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