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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Sep 29 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 3
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
External shock, internal fragility
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Oct 2025
Venezuela’s economy is moving into dangerous territory: falling oil prices and a tougher U.S. foreign policy are fueling uncertainty and eroding the government’s ability to stabilize just as the depreciation–inflation spiral is gathering force. Chevron’s return to Venezuela (under the conditio...
The game goes on
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025
Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...
Inflation resurges
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Sep 2025
Venezuela has entered a new cycle of accelerating inflation. We revise up our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for the period from September 2025 through December 2026. The bolivar’s defense capacity is weakening on low international oil prices, limitations imposed by oil licenses, and a ...
Not more of the same
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response
Trump is reshaping pressure on Venezuela under an anti-drug narrative, designating the "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization and deploying naval forces to the Caribbean. The pressure on Maduro is evident, though the U.S. government is not speaking of regime change. The military deployment...
The new Chevron authorization has no impact on inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Aug 2025
We revise our inflation forecasts upward from our July report due to the acceleration in the pace of official exchange rate depreciation starting in August, which we interpret as a new exchange rate policy stance by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). Although Chevron was authorized by the U....
A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...
A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.
We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025
We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...
Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025
It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...
Pressure on prices and the Bolívar
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2025
We have revised down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts on the assumption that, starting in June 2025, the government will maintain a monthly increase of 9–11 percent in the official exchange rate in an effort to ease inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the 2025–2026 outlook remains one ...
Silent concessions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2025
The exchange of concessions between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments signals a pragmatic understanding that prioritizes immediate mutual interests. Maduro seeks to consolidate his grip on power, while Trump (via Grenell) aims to secure gains on deportations and limit Chinese influence over Ven...
Sanctions on Venezuela become tighter and more opaque
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2025
There will be no General License 41c. We infer that Chevron is now operating under private licenses, out of public view. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) did not issue a general license clarifying the conditions for Chevron's continued presence in the country after the ex...
Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025
Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron: Bloomberg reported a possible 60-day extension of General License 41b which is set to expire next Tuesday, May 27th. This license gave Chevron 60 days to conclude operations in the joint ventures where it is a minority partner of Pdvsa. Althou...
Risks of high inflation and recession escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025
The worsening outlook for Venezuela’s export revenue is heightening the already high inflation and recession risks we have been warning about. The country is facing a severe negative shock from the convergence of sharply deteriorating global oil market conditions, tighter sanctions on Venezuel...
Keep arguing, guys
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2025
Nine months after the 2024 presidential elections, the Maduro government is consolidating its political position but faces the suspension of oil licenses and the secondary tariffs imposed by the United States on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, already perturbing the fragile economic norma...