Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2026: INFLATION, POLICY AND POLITIC...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...

Who knows? Gauging the risk of U.S. intervention in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Nov 2025

In the United States, different political camps seem to be converging on one key point: that Maduro’s ouster is part of the broader fight against drug trafficking and could justify military intervention. Although the U.S. troop buildup in the Caribbean has not disrupted cohesion within the Ven...

Game changer?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Oct 2025

María Corina Machado will receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize in December. Although her nomination was known since last year and her track record fits the appropriate profile, the news was a general surprise, triggering three interconnected dynamics: Machado's challenge to maximize the impact ...

Inflation forecast revised up
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Oct 2025

We revise up our projections for 2025–2026, reflecting the renewed spiral of inflation and devaluation. The gap between export revenue—limited and with a bearish bias—and a still-strong demand for foreign exchange further weakens the BCV’s ability to defend the bolivar. Since mid-September, the c...

External shock, internal fragility
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Oct 2025

Venezuela’s economy is moving into dangerous territory: falling oil prices and a tougher U.S. foreign policy are fueling uncertainty and eroding the government’s ability to stabilize just as the depreciation–inflation spiral is gathering force. Chevron’s return to Venezuela (under the conditio...

The game goes on
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025

Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...

Inflation resurges
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Sep 2025

Venezuela has entered a new cycle of accelerating inflation. We revise up our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for the period from September 2025 through December 2026. The bolivar’s defense capacity is weakening on low international oil prices, limitations imposed by oil licenses, and a ...

Not more of the same
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Trump is reshaping pressure on Venezuela under an anti-drug narrative, designating the "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization and deploying naval forces to the Caribbean. The pressure on Maduro is evident, though the U.S. government is not speaking of regime change. The military deployment...

The new Chevron authorization has no impact on inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Aug 2025

We revise our inflation forecasts upward from our July report due to the acceleration in the pace of official exchange rate depreciation starting in August, which we interpret as a new exchange rate policy stance by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). Although Chevron was authorized by the U....

A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025

The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...

A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.

We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...

Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025

It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...

Pressure on prices and the Bolívar
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2025

We have revised down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts on the assumption that, starting in June 2025, the government will maintain a monthly increase of 9–11 percent in the official exchange rate in an effort to ease inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the 2025–2026 outlook remains one ...

Silent concessions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2025

The exchange of concessions between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments signals a pragmatic understanding that prioritizes immediate mutual interests. Maduro seeks to consolidate his grip on power, while Trump (via Grenell) aims to secure gains on deportations and limit Chinese influence over Ven...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.