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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Silent concessions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2025

The exchange of concessions between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments signals a pragmatic understanding that prioritizes immediate mutual interests. Maduro seeks to consolidate his grip on power, while Trump (via Grenell) aims to secure gains on deportations and limit Chinese influence over Ven...

Sanctions on Venezuela become tighter and more opaque
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2025

There will be no General License 41c. We infer that Chevron is now operating under private licenses, out of public view. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) did not issue a general license clarifying the conditions for Chevron's continued presence in the country after the ex...

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron: Bloomberg reported a possible 60-day extension of General License 41b which is set to expire next Tuesday, May 27th. This license gave Chevron 60 days to conclude operations in the joint ventures where it is a minority partner of Pdvsa. Althou...

Risks of high inflation and recession escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025

The worsening outlook for Venezuela’s export revenue is heightening the already high inflation and recession risks we have been warning about. The country is facing a severe negative shock from the convergence of sharply deteriorating global oil market conditions, tighter sanctions on Venezuel...

Keep arguing, guys
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Nine months after the 2024 presidential elections, the Maduro government is consolidating its political position but faces the suspension of oil licenses and the secondary tariffs imposed by the United States on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, already perturbing the fragile economic norma...

It’s back
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2025

We foresee a return to triple-digit annual inflation in 2025 and identify several upside risks to our forecast numbers: U.S. oil sanctions policy, the effect of secondary tariffs to be applied to countries that buy Venezuelan oil, falling oil prices, adjustment measures adopted under the Economic...

Sanctions tighten rapidly
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025

Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...

Modus vivendi?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

The Trump administration’s top priority on Venezuela at the moment is to show its base that it is delivering on campaign promises regarding immigration. Its strategies are grounded in pragmatic, transactional exchanges—not in promoting democracy or economic freedoms. Florida’s Republican bas...

Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...

Sequels of a surprise revocation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Mar 2025

The unexpected revocation of General License 41 through General License 41a with only 30 days granted for winding down has turned what was already looking like a tough year into a decidedly awful one. The country will suffer a 24-percent drop ($4 billion) in oil exports in 2025, followed by anoth...

Are there behind the scenes negotiations?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Mar 2025

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell says Trump does not aspire to a regime change in Venezuela, but Trump acceded to the aspirations of the hardline anti-Maduro in the US Congress by revoking General License 41 (LG 41), which governs Chevron's operations in Venezu...

Is maximum pressure back?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

Using his Truth Social account, President Trump announced on February 26 the revocation of the "Oil Transaction Agreement" signed by the Biden and Maduro governments on November 26, 2022. We assume he refers to General License 41 (GL 41), which allowed Chevron to resume activities in Venezuela un...

Uncertainty and weak consumption slow inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In January, the monthly inflation rate declined to 9 percent from its December 2024 rate of 13 percent. Seasonal factors, including a slow post-holiday restart of economic activity, weak sales, and strong tax payments, were drivers of this decline. An additional driver was the narrowing of the ex...

One for one … so far
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The political dynamics in Venezuela remain largely unchanged. Nicolás Maduro succeeded in being sworn in on January 10 but fell short of legitimizing his leadership. María Corina Machado bolstered her standing with a high-profile appearance at a January 9 rally that garnered extensive internation...

Triple-digit inflation risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Jan 2025

Uncertainty as to politics and oil in 2025 will cause exchange rates and consumer prices to accelerate. We present two scenarios for 2025. Both assume that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will maintain a controlled crawling peg for the official exchange rate and leverage the increased dema...

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