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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...

Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...

On pause
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Nicolás Maduro, who is hugely unpopular, is heading toward his January 10th swearing-in ceremony for a third presidential term guided by two strategic objectives: to ensure cohesion within his ruling group and to build renewed "legitimacy" via tighter institutional control. He counts on repressio...

The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...

A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...

New uncertainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Oct 2024

Venezuela is in limbo and not. It is in limbo because the National Electoral Council has not published the results of our past elections in accordance with the law, and the Supreme Court's ruling designating Nicolás Maduro the victor was illegal. This awarded Maduro with power but no legitimacy a...

Oil revenues will set the tone
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Sep 2024

Prior to July 28, inflation had been contained thanks to tight control over the official exchange rate, strong competition, and highly price-elastic consumer demand. In August, however, the inflation rate soared to 1.4 percent, double July’s 0.7-percent rate. We attribute this acceleration to a s...

Immune to everything?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Supreme Court of Justice has validated the results of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election that had been announced by the National Electoral Council. The formality was carried out amidst a wave of harsh repression that sent the message that those in the upper echelons of government have ...

Webinar Replay - Venezuela Political Briefing
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the country's international standing and its economic and political outlook in the aftermath of Venezuela's pivotal 2024 presidential elections What can the international community do? Will there be room for negotiations? How could ...

We see more volatility and more risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2024

We have revised our inflation and exchange rate projections down for this year. We keep our projections for 2025 while we reassess the development of the political crisis that surfaced with the July 28 elections. We think the government will stay its economic policy course, aimed at reducing i...

Maduro clings to power
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2024 · 3 responses

Nicolás Maduro's dream of being legitimized by an electoral triumph on July 28 went up in smoke. He trusted that the advantageousness of an abusive incumbent would assure him victory, but his base betrayed him. Faced with this reality, the government opted for delegitimization and clings to power...

On the road to July 28
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2024

As of now, elections will likely take place. The focus shifts to the government’s tactics blocking opposition witnesses, possible disruptions on election day (electricity or communication systems failures that the government "alerts" as a possibility of opposition sabotage), practices that deter ...

Elections, oil pose large risks to forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2024

We hold to our single scenario for our 2024―2025 forecast period, during which the goal of reducing inflation will remain a priority regardless of how elections turn out, and the exchange rate will serve as the nominal anchor for the government’s fight against inflation. We forecast an annual ...

Turnout will be crucial
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2024 · 1 response

At this stage, the electoral outlook hinges on how the government decides to neutralize Edmundo González Urrutia's lead in the polls and how those decisions will bear on voter turnout. We have formulated five scenarios for the next 30 days. In each, the government makes a distinct cost-benefit an...

Gamechanger
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024 · 1 response

The constitutional injunction filed on June 19 before the Supreme Court of Justice by Jaime Gonzalez, deputy of the National Assembly for a "loyal opposition party," will most likely lead to an indefinite suspension of the presidential election scheduled for July 28. The plaintiff requests an unn...

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