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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Maduro hopes to bargain “his way”
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Feb 2023

In January, the government began hostilities aimed at placing conditions on the Mexico agenda it can then use as bargaining chips. It has threatened to replace all non-Chavista members of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE). To do so would jeopardize the legitimacy...

Webinar replay: Venezuela in 2023: What to expect?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jan 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses Venezuela's macro outlook and the prospects for growth in 2023. How will politics affect economic recovery? With the dire situation of Venezuela's oil industry and the limited scope of Chevron's ...

It’s all about oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Inflation slowed in 2022 for the fourth consecutive year, though by far less than the government had hoped. Inflation exceeded the government’s double-digit annual inflation target last August. Still, the year closed with an estimated inflation of 251 percent, which is far less than the 681 perce...

Adios, interim presidency
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023

The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...

It’s Only the Beginning
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2022

After the November 26 signing by Nicolás Maduro government and the delegation of the Unitary Platform their humanitarian agreement, heated rhetoric fills the air. The parties seem not to have the will or sense of urgency needed to move forward in the process. Although talks continue in Caracas...

Stabilization at risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2022

Monthly inflation for November jumped to 19.0 percent from 6.0 percent as a direct consequence of a 45.6 percent rise in the dollar against the bolivar. This bolivar plunge is the deepest seen so far this year. Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) foreign exchange interv...

2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022

Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...

Primaries, talks and Maduro’s diplomacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Nov 2022

Two events that have been on the radar for months finally happened. On November 26, the Maduro government and the opposition signed their first agreement in Mexico, and the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued license 41 expanding the scope of Chevron's operations in Ven...

A loss in central bank efficacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Monthly inflation for October closed at 6 percent, in a sharp slowdown from September (12.0 percent) and August (16.2 percent). This slowdown occurred despite an accelerated pace of bolivar depreciation whereby the dollar spiked 8.2 percent against the bolivar in October after having gained only ...

What will happen if the deal gets signed?
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

It looks like a first agreement in the ongoing negotiations between the Maduro government and the Unitary Platform is about to be signed. Tied to it would be the approval of a license by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) allowing Chevron to expand its operations in Venez...

Stabilization is getting tougher
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

For the second time this year, at 12 percent, the monthly inflation rate hit double digits. The first time was in August, the month of exchange-rate turbulence that took inflation to 16 percent. Even though the dollar appreciated against the bolivar by a mere 1.8 percent in September compared wit...

Not much is going according to his plan
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Oct 2022

Good news is in short supply for an economic policy framework reliant on restoring confidence in Maduro and his team’s capacity to a keep a tight grip on national affairs. The odds that the year will end on an optimistic note are deteriorating. The sharp bolivar sell-off that occurred in Augus...

Threat of hyperinflation looms
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2022

In August it became clear that hyperinflation was stalking Venezuela. After 11 months in the single digits, inflation jumped to 16 percent. The trigger was a non-coordination between the Treasury and the Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV). The BCV reduced the supply of...

Losing steam
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 07 Sep 2022

Our projections point to an economy with a slow recovery in economic activity, persistently high inflation and a modest balance of payments surplus sustained by high oil prices and the default on the public debt. Venezuelans today are discouraged by the slow pace of the Mexico talks and delays...

The winding road to recognition
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Aug 2022

With his sights set on 2024, when he hopes to secure his third term, Maduro needs to keep his fiscal austerity program on track while facing growing demands for better salaries and services. He needs to revive his electoral machinery, diminished by the civil service's weakening and the disillusio...

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