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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

For whom the bell tolls?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The Copom Minutes from last week's meeting revealed a rather hawkish tone regarding inflation prospects, suggesting that—even in the absence of guidance for meetings beyond May—the monetary tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the next meeting. We maintain the view expressed in our commentar...

Global uncertainty and local risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2025

Uncertainty is the key term when it comes to the economic outlook. While there are still significant domestic challenges, the biggest concerns stem from the global scenario, reflecting the radical shift in U.S. policy with the beginning of Trump’s second administration. Although changes in tra...

Cards close to the chest
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2025

As expected, the Copom raised the Selic target rate from 13.25% to 14.25% per year, citing the adverse inflation scenario, reflected in still-elevated projections. Regarding its next moves, the Committee signaled its intention—should the expected scenario materialize—to persist with the monetary ...

The path of disinflation: between desire and reality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Central Bank has signaled its understanding that the economy needs to slow down for inflation to converge to the target. In this report, we attempt to estimate the growth rate that aligns with the Central Bank’s scenario, particularly the path that moves from a positive output gap of 0.7% at ...

Webinar Replay - Debt and deficits in emerging markets: South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil - The good, the bad and the ugly?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian (South Africa), Alexandre Schwartsman (Brazil), and Cyrillus Harinowo (Indonesia) discussing public debt in these key emerging economies and where the good, the bad and the ugly of emerging markets fiscal policymak...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

OVERVIEW HARVESTS OF A PT ADMINISTRATION FOR THE PT The devastating decline in Lula’s popularity consolidates his worst moment across all his terms, with the gap between those who disapprove (49%) surpassing, for the first time, those who approve (47%) of his government. According to data f...

Lower growth; higher risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2025

GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024 came out below expectations. Although a certain slowdown was already anticipated, in ligt of high-frequency data previously released, output expansion in the period reached only 0.2%, compared to an average forecast of around 0.4% and very close to the lower...

Time is the master of reason
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025

The appreciation of the Brazilian real at the beginning of 2025, close to 7.6%, partially reversed the exchange rate depreciation process observed throughout last year, which had intensified in December. This movement at the beginning of the year followed the weakening of the U.S. dollar in t...

The perils of Penelope
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025

Copom’s current balance of risks highlights the asymmetry toward upside inflation risks, including economic overheating, given the positive output gap—one of the fundamentals of the current interest rate hike cycle. Economic slowdown and the consequent reduction of the output gap, thus reducing i...

Barking up the wrong tree
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2025

The government's recent efforts to reduce food and beverage prices suggest that it believes inflation exceeding the upper limit of the target range and its acceleration are consequences of higher food prices. However, as we discuss below, a significant portion of the deterioration results fro...

Not alone in the driver’s seat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2025

The minutes of the last Copom meeting displayed a harsher tone compared to the statement released last week but kept open the next steps after the March meeting. For now, the indication of another 1 percentage point increase still stands.

A coy central bank in the face of inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Recent data suggests an unfavorable inflationary trend, marked by the acceleration of its underlying measures. Our forecast points to an inflation rate of 5.8% in 2025, above the level recorded in 2024 and, therefore, also above the tolerance limit for the inflation target. We use our semi-struct...

Playing with fire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2025

As announced at the end of last year, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the target for the benchmark interest rate to 13.25% per year and maintained its guidance for another hike of the same magnitude in the next meeting.

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025

OVERVIEW OSTENSIBLE FRAILTY  Still reeling from the impact of the emergency brain surgery he underwent in December to drain a hematoma caused by a fall in October, Lula, at 79, has confided to aides that he may lack the health to run in the 2026 election. What was visible to external obser...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2025

Monthly activity indicators point to a certain slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Given the restrictive monetary policy and a possibly reduced fiscal impulse, we expect the cooling of economic activity to persist in 2025, with GDP projected to grow by 2.2%. However, we are mon...

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