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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An expected pause in interest rate cuts by the SA Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following three consecutive cuts. We had largely expected this decision as we noted following the January decision. The repurchase (repo) rate, hence, remains...

South Africa’s Budget 2025 finally presented after a GNU stalemate—yet it remains contested
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Mar 2025

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered Budget 2025 yesterday, which was also the first budget under the relatively new Government of National Unity (GNU). The significant shift in South Africa’s political administration has been most evident in the events leading up to this year’s budget ann...

South Africa’s current account deficit eases as trade surplus grows in 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2025

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R55.6 billion in the third quarter to R31.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus narrowed to a deficit of 0.4% in the fourth qua...

South Africa’s economy posts modest 0.6% growth—both quarterly and annually
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Mar 2025

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) indicate that South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.6% q/q in the final quarter of 2024, following a contraction of 0.1% q/q during the third quarter. The positive growth in fourth quarter real GDP came largely on the back of the rebo...

South Africa’s economic potential improves, but emerging headwinds amid new geopolitical dynamics could pose a risk
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 19 Feb 2025

• Bonds: The South African bond market in 2024 was marked by heightened volatility, reflecting both domestic economic conditions and global financial pressures. As such, the year saw substantial fluctuations in net bond purchases. Yet, the successful formation of the Government of National Unity ...

President Ramaphosa delivers the first State of the Nation Address under the new Government of National Unity
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Feb 2025

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the 2025 State of the Nation Address on February 6, marking his first address as the leader of the Government of National Unity. During his speech, he outlined several key initiatives and developments across various sectors of South Africa's socio-economic land...

The South African Reserve Bank’s third consecutive rate cut amid rising uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jan 2025

Having convened for its first 2025 meeting this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. In line with market expectations, the MPC voted to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5%. This marks the third...

The ANC’s January 8th statement post-2024 elections and coalition governance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2025

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the African National Congress's (ANC) January 8th Statement this past weekend, marking the party's 113th anniversary. This address came in the wake of the 2024 general elections, where the ANC, for the first time since 1994, failed to secure an outright majorit...

South Africa’s current account remains broadly unchanged in Q3-2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2024, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R75.3 billion in the second quarter to R70.8 billion. Relative to GDP, however, the current account deficit remain...

SA GDP contracts: Stable electricity supply boosts energy-intensive mining and manufacturing in Q3 2024, while agriculture drags growth lower
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2024

In contrast to the general expectations of modest growth, the South African economy contracted by 0.3% q/q during the third quarter of 2024, following an expansion of 0.3% q/q in the second quarter. Despite a marked improvement in electricity supply, South Africa’s economy remains under pressure,...

The South African Reserve Bank maintains momentum as it lowers interest rates by a second consecutive 25 bps
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2024

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a further 25 basis points, from 8% to 7.75%, during its final meeting of the year. This represents a second cut since the Bank started lowering rates in September of the current y...

Improved electricity supply sparks optimism for South Africa's economic outlook
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2024

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was only 0.4% higher in H1-2024 than it was during the corresponding period in 2023. The country’s logistical issues remain a major hindrance to economic activity, while there was heightened uncertainty due to the May 29th general elec...

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement indicates the government recorded a primary budget surplus in FY2023/24 for the first time in 15 years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Oct 2024

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, who has remained in his position during South Africa’s transition from being sorely governed by the African National Party (ANC) to a Government of National Unity (GNU), presented an update on government finances since the presentation of the country’s main Budg...

South Africa’s business environment and corporate dividends in 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Oct 2024

While the overall performance of the South African economy in 2024 is expected to improve somewhat from the previous year, the lackluster economic activity from 2023 (in the post-Covid-19 era) has had a detrimental impact on business activity. Despite the marked improvement in electricity supply ...

The SA Reserve Bank cuts rates as inflation comes within target and the rand strengthens
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Bringing the benchmark interest rate down for the first time since embarking on a relatively aggressive monetary policy normalization that started in November 2021, the SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during their September 2024 mee...

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