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Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, forecast update – Weekly report, November 3, 2025
ISRAEL · Forecast · 04 Nov 2025
Israel enters November in a fragile but stabilizing environment. While the ceasefire with Hamas remains largely intact, negotiations toward Phase II of the Gaza arrangement have stalled, leaving uncertainty in the near term over the Gaza front and future regional arrangements. Economic data f...
Israel’s economic conditions in Q3 2025: after Iran, before the ceasefire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025
As data for August and September 2025 begin to accumulate, we now have a clearer statistical picture of Israel’s economic performance in the third quarter. The key question we seek to answer is how the Israeli economy responded to the end of the military operation against Iran and whether the rec...
Israel’s labor market remains tight, may keep monetary easing on hold
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Oct 2025
Three key indicators released this week confirm that Israel’s labor market remains tight. The number of job vacancies rose slightly in September to 146.9 thousand, the highest level ever recorded, with most of the increase coming from trade and manufacturing sectors. The unemployment rate remaine...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 24, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Oct 2025
The past week marked the near completion of the first phase of the Trump peace plan, including a fragile ceasefire, the return of all surviving hostages and the bodies of about 15 of the 28 killed, large-scale humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a partial Israeli withdrawal to the “yellow line.” U.S. a...
Rating agencies reaffirm Israel’s rating but stress that any improvement depends on fiscal consolidation and political stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025
Moody’s reaffirms Israel’s rating and upgrades growth outlook Moody’s reaffirmed Israel’s Baa1 rating with a negative outlook on October 16, 2025, describing the Gaza ceasefire as credit-positive but emphasizing that risks remain elevated. The agency raised its growth forecasts to 2.5% for 2025 a...
Strong tax revenues keep 2025 deficit on target near 5% of GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Oct 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 9.5 billion ($2.9 billion) in September, with the trailing 12-month deficit steady at 4.7% of GDP, unchanged from August. This marks a significant improvement from the 8.5% peak recorded in September 2024. Revenues in September totaled NIS ...
Israel September CPI – a sharp downside surprise strengthens the case for rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Oct 2025
September CPI surprise: inflation eases sharply to 2.5%, driven by stronger shekel and seasonal factors Israel’s consumer price index fell by 0.6% in September, double our forecast for a 0.3% decline. As a result, annual inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February 2024. The decline clearly...
Israel shifts from war to recovery; focus shifts to September CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025
Overview The 20 live hostages were released and returned to Israel this morning, after two years in Hamas captivity, as part of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement. In parallel, Israel began releasing Palestinian prisoners. U.S. President Donald Trump, widely viewed in Israel as the key br...
A day of hope for Israelis and Palestinians, as Trump announces Gaza ceasefire: Analysis and implications
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025
Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his Gaza peace plan, including an agreement for a ceasefire, the release of all hostages, a large-scale release of Palestinian prisoners, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces to an agreed line. A...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 6, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Oct 2025
This week, Israel returned from an extended Yom Kippur weekend to a single trading day (Sunday) before entering another holiday break for Sukkot. During the intermediate days of the holiday (Chol HaMoed, Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday), business and financial activity will take place on a limite...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 1, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Sep 2025
In the past week, Israeli markets and policy were shaped by two dominant forces: geopolitics and monetary policy. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan dominated headlines, offering a comprehensive framework that received broad international support but faces uncertainty around Ham...
Bank of Israel rate decision: hawkish tone, but Trump plan could pave way for easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
The Bank of Israel kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with market expectations. In our view, the tone was slightly hawkish relative to expectations, emphasizing geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the need to maintain financial stability. The wording was chosen to highlig...
Trump’s Gaza plan: broad support abroad, uncertainty over Hamas approval, rising likelihood of early elections in Israel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
Key takeaway: Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan has gained broad international and Arab support, but Hamas’s acceptance remains uncertain. In Israel, the plan currently enjoys political backing, though risks remain that Israel could withdraw from the understandings under political pressure or if Hamas s...
Rate decision preview: Bank of Israel to hold rates; updated macro forecast in focus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Sep 2025
Most forecasters (including us) expect no change in the policy rate on Monday. Why do we believe the Bank of Israel will keep rates unchanged? August’s CPI, published on September 16, surprised to the upside with a 0.7% monthly increase. While annual inflation declined to 2.9%, back within the Ba...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Sep 2025
Last week was dominated by geopolitics, as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” speech raised fears of economic fallout and deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Markets reacted negatively, while the failed strike on Hamas leaders in Doha further strained ties with Arab states. We outlined...