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BoI keeps rate at 4.5%; hawkish tone, but easing later this year still possible
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 May 2025

Policy decision in line with expectationsThe central bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on May 26th, for the eleventh consecutive meeting. This decision was in line with market expectations. Forward guidance unchangedThe Bank of Israel preserved the exact same forwa...

Israel’s Q1 GDP shows moderate rebound, but recovery remains uneven
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 May 2025

Israel’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 1.9% in Q4 2024, according to preliminary estimates released yesterday by the Central Bureau of Statistics. When adjusted for the drop in import taxes on vehicle purchases—technically included in GDP—the underly...

April CPI analysis: overseas travel drives inflation surprise; likelihood of rate cut declines
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2025

Israel’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.1% in April, exceeding market expectations for 0.6%-0.7%. The surprise was driven primarily by a 31% jump in overseas travel costs. The sharp increase in flight prices abroad in April likely reflects high demand ahead of the summer season. Since 2023,...

Israel’s April CPI due today: we expect 0.6% rise—ceasefire progress may influence BOI policy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2025

The Central Bureau of Statistics is expected to release April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today, and our expectation is for a 0.6% monthly rise, bringing the annual inflation rate to around 3.1%. Seasonal drivers behind the headline figure While 0.6% may appear elevated, April is traditiona...

Israel’s April budget data support deficit target; bond issuance pace expected to slow
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 May 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 11.15 billion ($3.145 billion) in April, with the trailing 12-month deficit improving to 5.1% of GDP, down from5.2% in March and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. The improvement reflects strong tax revenues in January and February—partly d...

Government bond issuance slows amid narrowing deficit and surplus funds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2025

Israel’s Ministry of Finance announced plans to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable local bonds during May 2025, a moderate increase from NIS 9.81 billion in April but still well below the average monthly issuance of nearly NIS 16 billion recorded throughout 2024 and early 2025. The decline in iss...

Israeli geopolitics: Gaza deadlock, political tensions, and shifting regional dynamics
ISRAEL · Report · 02 May 2025

Key takeaways from this report: Israel’s political and public arenas remain turbulent, marked by tensions between the judiciary and the government, widespread frustration over the ongoing hostage crisis, and the unresolved issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription. Despite these pressures, early e...

Modest recovery faces internal and external challenges
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Israel’s economy continued to expand in the first quarter of 2025, although the level of activity remained below its potential trajectory. Despite the ongoing recovery, the economy has clearly not yet returned to full productive capacity. On the geopolitical front, the overall risk environment...

March CPI up 0.5%, annual inflation eases to 3.3%; rate cuts expected in H2 as disinflation builds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2025

March CPI analysis: Housing and food continue to drive inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased 0.5%, slightly above our expectations for a 0.4% increase. The annual rate decreased to 3.30% in March, from 3.40% in February 2025. The March CPI was driven primarily by a 0.9% inc...

March CPI in focus this week; 2025 inflation forecast revised lower amid oil price drop
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Israel marked the beginning of Passover this weekend, with 59 hostages still held in Gaza—24 of them presumed alive. Reports over the weekend suggested progress in hostage deal negotiations. On the Iranian front, following an initial round of indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, both...

Deficit narrows in 2025 under baseline scenario, but surges if Gaza conflict escalates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a deficit of NIS 13 billion ($3.5 billion) in March. The trailing 12-month (TTM) budget deficit declined to 5.2% of GDP, down from 5.3% in February, 5.8% in January, 6.9% in December, and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. In the fir...

Israel keeps rate at 4.5% as BoI highlights global and domestic risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Policy rate held steady for ninth consecutive meeting The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on April 7th, marking the ninth consecutive decision to maintain the current level. The move was widely expected by markets. The Monetary Committee adopted a slightly dovish...

Israeli geopolitics: Trump, Tehran, and turmoil at home—Israel faces regional threats and political unrest
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Mar 2025 · 1 response

Key takeaways from this report: - A potential end to the Ukraine war under Trump’s mediation might allow Russia to redirect its focus back to the Middle East, causing destabilization from Israel’s perspective. - American-Iranian negotiations may ease direct confrontation but might agi...

Israel weekly economic wrap: rising geopolitical tensions, 2025 budget passes, but fiscal risks remain amid signs of economic softening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Mar 2025

The past week in Israel was marked primarily by heightened domestic tensions surrounding the judicial overhaul and the anticipated clash between the government and the Supreme Court. This stems from efforts to dismiss both the Attorney General and the head of Israel’s Security Agency (Shin Bet). ...

Israel faces institutional confrontation as government moves against Attorney General and Shin Bet Chief
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Mar 2025

The Israeli government unanimously passed a resolution expressing no confidence in Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara—a move widely seen as paving the way for her dismissal. In response, Baharav-Miara sent a letter to the cabinet ministers, accusing them of seeking political loyalty rather than ...

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