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Will Beijing bail out the property market?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Sep 2025

“China’s regulatory rescue efforts are sometimes cautious, like giving a band-aid after a knife wound,” said Huan Li, co-founder of Forest Capital Hong Kong Ltd., a hedge fund with $200 million under management. “They don’t act until the worst moment, but when that comes, it may be too late.” Blo...

The great Chinese tech mirage
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Sep 2025

“Underestimating China” has become the new consensus of China’s current global position. From China’s rise to the collapse post-Covid, we now have a new discussion that sees China’s industrial capacity and technological prowess as a potential threat to the West. Council on Foreign Relations An...

Supply-side cutbacks in China—real or a red herring?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Aug 2025

China’s overcapacity is leading to global price deflation as the country exports subsidized goods. The government has discussed supply-side reform—but how real is this? Does China have the political capacity to reduce production enough to change global supply dynamics? Supply-side reform is no...

Is Xi Jinping losing power?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2025

There’s been a lot of recent chatter about a possible decline in Xi Jinping’s power and what this means for the leadership of China. The arguments are divided: some analysts are convinced Xi’s been unofficially demoted, while others believe we are reading the tea leaves incorrectly. I tend to thi...

No easy solutions for China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The two economic issues facing China are the US-China trade talks and economic stimulus. The first can be partly resolved through negotiations, although even tariffs of 10 percent would cause a drop in GDP. The agreement thus far appears to be an agreement to negotiate—not an actual contract. On ...

Will China's economy and technology surpass the U.S.?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 May 2025

There is a growing view that China’s economy and technology will soon surpass that of the U.S. Kyle Chan, a researcher at Princeton University, outlined this argument in a New York Times op-ed: “For years, theorists have posited the onset of a 'Chinese century': a world in which China finally ...

Thoughts on the trade talks (a win-win?) and China's stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 May 2025

China and the U.S. plan to hold two days of trade talks in Switzerland starting May 10 for the first time since the beginning of Trump’s second administration. The Financial Times noted that “The meeting will be the first high-level interaction between the two sides since Vice President Han Zheng...

What Xi Jinping won’t do
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Many outsiders tend to view Xi Jinping as a rational economic actor who implements policy with an authoritarian hand, who would make the same decisions economically that the U.S. would. However, that is not always true. The priorities of the Chinese state often differ from those of the U.S. There...

Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025

China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...

Pressure points on China from the Trump Administration
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 have or may impose a variety of tariffs. We have some sense of the macroeconomic impact on China. But what about the domestic political pressure points? We know that China has deliberately targeted its tariffs heavily on red states to weaken Trump’s base. Is there likely t...

China’s “DeepSeek” tech rebound
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Mar 2025

The success of DeepSeek along with Xi Jinping’s meeting with technology firms has caused a rally in Chinese tech stocks. DeepSeek’s ability to create a sophisticated AI engine with minimal chip hardware has been taken as sign of China’s ability to improve on western technology at a much lower pri...

Unpegging the Hong Kong dollar peg
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Given the difficult state of Hong Kong’s economy, and more broadly its role in the world, it is not surprising that we are seeing speculation about how the city will refashion itself under tighter mainland control. There are concerns about the direction of the economy; the strength of its pillar ...

Geopolitical risks and the domestic economy: Are Chinese officials getting nervous?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Xi Jinping is fighting two fires simultaneously: the geopolitical risk of sanctions and a trade war, and a rapidly slowing domestic economy. The trade war outcome is out of his control until Trump enacts specific policies. Even then, Xi has limited retaliatory options such as restricting exports ...

Policy shift or feint?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2025

Recent statements in China have been interpreted by some analysts as a change in policy. Xi Jinping is now warning of “challenges” in China’s economy. These and related comments have been viewed by some as hinting at a possible change in the central government's attitude toward economic stimulus....

China's weak hand
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Dec 2024

China’s economy is likely performing worse than the official data suggests, including in both the private and state sector. For structural reasons, any stimulus is likely to be ineffective. Given the weak economic data points, along with the difficult trade environment among China’s main customer...

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