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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

How long can consumer savings last?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2024

China is hoping a short-term stimulus package will revive the economy. The rumored size of a package keeps growing. Although a large stimulus package has not taken place, the impact of the slowing economy on ordinary citizens has been reduced due to the size of savings deposits in the banks and g...

China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024

The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...

China’s Struggling Consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Sep 2024

Some Recent consumer data shows the Chinese economy steadily weakening. We look at several key data points pointing to the decline. Declining film box office revenue: The totals for film revenue is down 43 percent for the three months from June through August. According to a senior film exe...

China’s circling of the wagons financial strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Sep 2024

China’s bond market has been on a tear recently. Chinese banks, including both rural and city, along with the big national state banks, have been significantly increasing their purchases of central government bonds, leading to the rare event of 10-year and 30-year bonds trading below the central ...

China’s report card
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Aug 2024

In the first half of 2024 China faced significant challenges and some important decisions. How did it do? Here, we provide a quick report card on China’s successes and failures in navigating a difficult environment.

The Third Plenum and US-China relations
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jul 2024

The Third Plenum occurs every five years and sets the tone for economic policy for the future. This year’s Third Plenum has been quite dull, with the leadership issuing a policy document that was a grab bag of Xi Jinping’s main talking points. It was also almost over-shadowed by continuing rumors...

The view from Washington
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jun 2024

I was invited to a conference organized by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington to launch its new China initiative. The conference featured Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, along with Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor under Trump; Bonnie Lin of the th...

The view from Harvard
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Jun 2024

I was invited to participate in a conference last week sponsored by Harvard Law School that has been occurring annually since 2004. That year, both the Chinese Minister of Finance and the Central Bank Governor spoke, along with the Emissary of the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury to the People's Re...

Beijing's new property policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 May 2024

Beijing announced new property regulations designed to restart growth in the sector. These regulations include a central government lending program, along with lower interest rates for homebuyers. Unfortunately, these measures will have only a minimal impact on economic growth for two reasons: 1)...

Will sanctions against Chinese banks work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 May 2024

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Chinese banks that are supporting the export of goods to for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The State Department has denied the reports but it would be logical for the U.S. to use its dominance of the US dollar financia...

China’s sugar high
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Apr 2024

Recent data from China’s economy has indicated a turnaround, mostly in the industrial sector including autos, but also in some high technology products. However, the improvements have been fueled by a sharp increase in industrial loans even as monetary policy overall remains sluggish. Further gro...

China’s charm offensive
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2024

China has been engaging in a full-court “charm offensive” toward Europe and the United States, encouraging diplomatic, military and economic discussions. Some analysts dismiss these efforts as a fig leaf to cover China’s true ambitions. However, there is an economic logic to them: the domestic ec...

China's growth and the Two Sessions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt bu...

The Evergrande court case - what's next?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...

Steel demand in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2024

China’s property industry, one of the major buyers of steel, is in decline. Property accounts for about one third of steel demand in China. The top 100 developers suffered declines of 4 percent sequentially and 30 percent year on year for contracted sales in November, according to CRIC estimates....

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