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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The politics of debt after the NPC
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2023

China is struggling with high debt. The weakest portion is concentrated in the local investment companies, Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), with an estimated 50 to 60 trillion yuan. They emerged from the 2009 financial crisis and have since become the principal support for the propert...

China’s new financial centralization
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Mar 2023

China has made the most significant changes to its economic governing in several decades. It has placed power for the regulation and oversight of the financial system in the hands of a governing group in the Party. This could impact the country’s growth and financial stability. Specifically: ...

SVB and Asian banks
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Generally, contagion risk from the Silicon Valley Bank situation is minimal—apart from the issue of “animal spirits…” What are the risks that could affect Asian banks? * Excessive concentration of digital assets in the banking system. However, most digital start-ups obtain funding from ventu...

The death of China sourcing
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Feb 2023

Global corporations are shifting their supply chains from China to other countries due to China’s Covid policies, rising state control, and concerns about deteriorating US-China relations. The top destinations are India and Vietnam. Much attention has been paid to the impact of the potential loss...

China’s tech crackdown is not over
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Shares in China’s technology sector have risen sharply due to a perception that the central government is relaxing its regulatory restrictions on the industry. This would be a mistake. Control mechanisms are in place that will hinder the industry’s growth. There are certain key sectors – namely, ...

China’s abrupt U-turns
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2023

China has done an about-face on a number of issues that signal a sudden realization that the economy continues to slow and the country’s policies are not working. China has reversed course on domestic Covid control, the property market and its former frosty approach to diplomacy; we even witnesse...

The politics of Covid in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Dec 2022

China’s current management of Covid measures points to a leadership vacuum, narrow thinking, and general bad management. More broadly, as the country’s medical and economic problems mount, the shortcomings of the Xi Jinping regime’s political management style are going to become more apparent, wi...

Winners and losers in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Nov 2022

China has announced a package of stimulus measures for the property market. They are a compromise between full economic support and the previous harsh restrictions on the property developers. However, many of the measures are focused on demand, while consumers are reluctant to invest in an unstab...

Politics are winning over economics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Bloomberg just published a story about significant new support for China’s property market. Measures announced thus far include asking banks to extend 1 trillion yuan in emergency support for the property market by end-2022, reducing interest rates, and, according to Bloomberg reporting, develope...

De-risking and Chinese equities
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

There is pressure, primarily from the U.S. pension and retirement funds, to “de-risk” by reducing the weight of Chinese equities in overall portfolios. The official China data for September 2022 show net portfolio outflows. Future months are likely to show negative growth as de-risking sentiment ...

The surprising end of the Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Oct 2022 · 1 response

China’s Party Conference ended with a bang in two ways: the clear selection of Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) members in Xi Jinping’s camp, and the unprecedented removal of former Party head Hu Jintao from the Party Conference. In this report I discuss the significance of these two acts. F...

Xi Jinping’s tough choices in the chip wars
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Oct 2022

I was very interested to read opposing analyses of the impact of the new U.S. policy toward the export of semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology to China — both from former Department of Defense analysts. One was from Gregory Allen, a CSIS analyst, and former Director of Strategy an...

The future of China after the 20th Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2022

The Party conference on October 16 is likely to solidify Xi Jinping’s power. How much power will depend on who is appointed to senior positions. It is important to watch closely whether younger potential successors are named to the standing committee and other related positions. The degree of Xi’...

The next China crisis? Local Government Financing Vehicles
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Sep 2022

The Chinese government is transferring a significant portion of the risks of the property sector from private developers to local government companies. These LGFVs (Local Government Financing Vehicles) are required by local governments to acquire land — replacing property developers — to support ...

Pandemic statistics update - September 14, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2022

Preliminary traffic and box office data suggests a slight improvement in conditions in China despite the continuing Covid lockdowns. After making strong gains for the early part of the summer, box office increases year on year dropped off in early September due to rising lockdowns. However, box ...

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