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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China's tech crackdown - an excerpt from my new book, "China's Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants"
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2022

When Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, gave a speech on October 24, 2020 to the country’s political and financial elite, he set in motion a crackdown on China’s flourishing technology sector that will have long consequences on China’s economic growth. In my n...

Key takeaways from China’s mortgage crisis
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Aug 2022

China’s economy has done surprisingly well through the Covid period – until now. Throughout the Covid period China has sustained growth through investment and exports. In the midst of a weak global economy, exports rose 14 percent YoY in 1H 2022, and in 2021, China’s total trade was up 30 percent...

Xi Jinping’s Visit to Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jul 2022

Xi Jinping’s chose Hong Kong as his first trip out of the mainland in two years as a symbol of global power and an expression of support for the incoming Chief Executive. His comments, along with other recent events, provide some clues to how China intends to govern Hong Kong. We can conclude tha...

Is a war in Taiwan likely?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jun 2022

President Biden’s public support for the defense of Taiwan, coupled with China’s increasing aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, have increased concerns about an invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. Elections in both Taiwan and the U.S. in 2024 could exacerbate existing tension. Despite the growi...

Pandemic statistics update - June 10, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue is showing quite steady gains beginning in June. This confirms news reports that suggest the lockdowns are easing, either due to local pressure or because there has been containment of Covid in places such as Shanghai. Both Shanghai and Beijing have shown sharp chang...

Pandemic statistics update - June 2, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue remains substantially below year-ago levels, although the variability over the past several weeks shows the confused situation of the Covid control measures. Traffic data for Shanghai and Beijing is inconsistent.

Pandemic statistics update - May 25, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 May 2022

China film box office revenue is bouncing around at low levels, down 88.3 percent YoY as of the most recent data, as lockdowns continue to impact attendance at cinemas. However, the traffic data from Shanghai and Beijing is mildly positive.

Pandemic statistics update - May 20, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 May 2022

Xi Jinping’s lockdown policies are facing increasing opposition. Videos have been posted online about protests at Peking University, where the children of the elite attend university. The open confrontation, in both Beijing and Shanghai, is surprising but the harsh measures are clearly causing si...

Caught between two worlds
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 May 2022

It’s becoming increasingly clear that China’s leadership has no clear path out of the problems of handling the latest Covid wave, the impact on supply chains and domestic activity, the prolonged problems with the property industry, and the slowing economy. There also is significant debate about e...

Pandemic statistics update: policy panic
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 May 2022

China is struggling to come up with a reasonable policy to tackle the twin problems of Covid and a slowing economy. Reports suggest there is a serious policy conflict at the upper reaches of the State Council. This is likely to end badly rather than well. However, the PRC Standing Committee conti...

Pandemic statistics update
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Apr 2022

We look at cinema openings nationally, traffic in Shanghai, and political opposition to Covid measures in Shanghai. We see some improvement in the film industry and signs that traffic is slowly building up. We also see that a health issue such as Covid is providing an avenue for widespread commen...

A quick note on China's macro data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Apr 2022

China has issued a flurry of policies designed to rejuvenate the economy – a 25-basis-point RRR cut last week, 23 bank-focused policies Monday…What is unusual is how restrained the reaction has been. Between lockdowns, Covid, the Ukraine situation, continued friction with the U.S, and the tech cr...

Shanghai lockdown
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Apr 2022

High frequency cinema opening data suggests a flattening out of the impact of Covid on the country, although it’s too early to tell. Meanwhile, the problems with the Shanghai lockdown highlight the central government’s experimentation with focused lockdowns but also raise questions about Beijing’...

The Evergrande bank heist
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2022

Chinese banks took control of $2 billion of Evergrande cash held by Evergrande Property Services, a unit of Evergrande. Surprisingly, the company expressed confusion about the transfer and said it is “investigating” how the banks claimed the funds. What does this tell us about China’s economy as ...

Economic dissent at the top
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Mar 2022

The volatile Chinese equity markets forced economics czar Liu He to make a statement quieting the markets. That has led to expectations of a new stimulus, including state promotion of equities (the “national team”). Although Xi Jinping dislikes volatility, whatever stimulus measures that are adop...

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