GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Yesterday, December 10th, 2024, President Javier Milei addressed the Nation on the occasion of the first anniversary of his government. It was a 37-minute speech broadcast on national radio and television in which, instead of highlighting this year's achievements, which were many, he focused on t...

The foreign exchange market in the Milei era

ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

This is the second report in a trilogy whose main purpose is to make sense of current market optimism while raising awareness of the risks market participants will face between now and the October 2025 midterm election. The first report dealt with inflation and whether it had converged with a lev...

Has consumer inflation converged to the level consistent with the rate of crawl?

ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

This is the first of three reports in which I will discuss an equal number of topics that are central to Argentina’s near-term economic future, namely, inflation, the FX market and country risk. Specifically, I will assess how these variables are likely to behave between now and the mid-term elec...

GlobalSource Partners strengthens team in Argentina

ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Nov 2024 · 1 response

We are pleased to announce that Joaquin Cottani has re-joined GlobalSource Partners, once again as a lead analyst for Argentina. He will work closely with Domingo Cavallo in conducting and writing research, as well as serving our clients with meetings and conference calls. Dr. Cottani has a ri...

Argentina’s improving macro outlook

ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In this report, we review the recent growth, inflation, trade and fiscal indicators. The recent macroeconomic activity indicators have shown an improvement, while the strengthening of the external (accrued) balances allows us to anticipate a relatively stable FX market, with an outlook of a likel...

The prospects for economic recovery for the fourth quarter and 2025

ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The past week has been particularly rich in macroeconomic information. The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) published the main quarterly indicators (GDP, unemployment and the balance of payments) for the second quarter of 2024, together with the poverty indices for the first semester (1H24). I...

Webinar Replay - Argentina: Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Domingo Cavallo discussing Argentina's economic outlook in a conversation with Murilo Riccini, Bradesco BBI’s Andean & Argentinean Strategist. What are the strengths and weaknesses of Argentina’s fiscal adjustment? What is the d...

Talking points from the webinar "Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns"

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Javier Milei started his presidency of Argentina with a strong condemnation of traditional politics, unions and professional corporations, and the role of the state as a resource allocator and redistributor of income and wealth. Once in office, he continued with the same rhetoric but sought to ma...

Ambitious official targets

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Sep 2024

President Javier Milei presented the 2025 budget proposal to the Chamber of Deputies. Normally, this procedure is carried out by the Minister of Economy, but this year the head of state wanted to do it personally to emphasize that balancing the fiscal accounts is the crucial goal of his economic ...

August CPI - The half-full/half-empty glass

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

August National CPI inflation came in at 4.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive month with an inflation rate of close to 4%. While those monthly rates are the lowest since 2021, their result can still be read as a half-full/half-empty glass.Graph 1 On the positive side, It must be remembered th...

Inflation is declining, economic activity is slowly recovering but foreign reserves are depleting

ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Sep 2024

Inflation has stabilized between 3% and 4% monthly, and the government anticipates a further decline. Economic activity is showing signs of a slow but promising recovery. Real wages for workers and retirees are improving, and consumer credit is beginning to reemerge. Furthermore, the governme...

Expecting July inflation

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2024

Despite the gradual liberalization of regulated prices, the government has focused on the reduction of the inflation rate as one of its most immediate and visible economic achievements. For this, it undertook, from its beginning, a demanding fiscal contraction, and a gradual elimination of the ce...

Anchoring exchange-rate expectations for further inflation slowdown

ARGENTINA · Report · 16 Jul 2024

During the last few weeks there has been very good news on the course of inflation. But two sets of side effects of the stabilization policy create doubts about its sustainability: the widening of the gap between the blue-chip swap rate (CCL) and the official exchange rate (which many observers i...

From macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization

ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jun 2024

The approval by the Senate of two legislative projects that the government needs to transition from macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization without significant disruptions, the two-year extension of the swap with China for 5 billion dollars, the disbursement by the IMF of 80...

Faster-than-expected inflation deceleration in an environment of economic contraction

ARGENTINA · Report · 28 May 2024

In the third week of May, the trend towards stability in the informal foreign exchange markets was interrupted. There was an increase in the CCL exchange rate and in country risk for the first time since February. These changes may not signify a reversal of trends but rather a circumstantial a...