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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025

A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...

On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...

Is the peso overvalued? A technical note
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Feb 2025

In this report, I argue that, contrary to what President Milei and members of his economic team say, the Argentine peso is overvalued. By how much—I don't know, nor do I think anyone does. I know that the peso is overvalued for three reasons. First, because of the cepo: if it didn't exist, the no...

Waiting for the Fund
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Feb 2025

Discussions between the IMF and Argentina on the new Extended Facilities Agreement (EFF) that will replace the one that just expired seem to be on track. Negotiations accelerated in the last two months, and it is quite likely that the agreement will be reached before the end of March. Taking the ...

As December inflation meets expectations, BCRA announces it will reduce crawl to 1% in February
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2025

Yesterday, INDEC unveiled the December inflation number. It came at 2.7% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing 2004 annual inflation to 118%, down from 211% in 2023. The satisfactory headline December print encouraged BCRA to announce a reduction in the exchange rate crawl from 2% to 1% starti...

2025 Economic Outlook: Better than last year, but not out of the woods yet
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 07 Jan 2025

This report, the first of the year, outlines the macroeconomic forecasts for 2025 that I consider more important. Naturally, these forecasts may change significantly as reality unfolds because there are many uncertainties lingering regarding the economy, particularly those related to the midterm ...

Assessing Argentina's country risk
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Dec 2024

This is the last of three reports that discuss an equal number of economic variables whose seemingly excellent performance against the odds have investors scratching their heads. The two previous reports were about inflation and the FX gap. In this one, I delve into external solvency or, as it is...

Highlights of yesterday's speech by President Milei
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Dec 2024

Yesterday, December 10th, 2024, President Javier Milei addressed the Nation on the occasion of the first anniversary of his government. It was a 37-minute speech broadcast on national radio and television in which, instead of highlighting this year's achievements, which were many, he focused on t...

The foreign exchange market in the Milei era
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Dec 2024

This is the second report in a trilogy whose main purpose is to make sense of current market optimism while raising awareness of the risks market participants will face between now and the October 2025 midterm election. The first report dealt with inflation and whether it had converged with a lev...

Has consumer inflation converged to the level consistent with the rate of crawl?
ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Nov 2024

This is the first of three reports in which I will discuss an equal number of topics that are central to Argentina’s near-term economic future, namely, inflation, the FX market and country risk. Specifically, I will assess how these variables are likely to behave between now and the mid-term elec...

GlobalSource Partners strengthens team in Argentina
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Nov 2024 · 1 response

We are pleased to announce that Joaquin Cottani has re-joined GlobalSource Partners, once again as a lead analyst for Argentina. He will work closely with Domingo Cavallo in conducting and writing research, as well as serving our clients with meetings and conference calls. Dr. Cottani has a ri...

Argentina’s improving macro outlook
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Oct 2024

In this report, we review the recent growth, inflation, trade and fiscal indicators. The recent macroeconomic activity indicators have shown an improvement, while the strengthening of the external (accrued) balances allows us to anticipate a relatively stable FX market, with an outlook of a likel...

The prospects for economic recovery for the fourth quarter and 2025
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The past week has been particularly rich in macroeconomic information. The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) published the main quarterly indicators (GDP, unemployment and the balance of payments) for the second quarter of 2024, together with the poverty indices for the first semester (1H24). I...

Webinar Replay - Argentina: Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Domingo Cavallo discussing Argentina's economic outlook in a conversation with Murilo Riccini, Bradesco BBI’s Andean & Argentinean Strategist. What are the strengths and weaknesses of Argentina’s fiscal adjustment? What is the d...

Talking points from the webinar "Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns"
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

Javier Milei started his presidency of Argentina with a strong condemnation of traditional politics, unions and professional corporations, and the role of the state as a resource allocator and redistributor of income and wealth. Once in office, he continued with the same rhetoric but sought to ma...

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