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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2024

Fears of a new wave of military escalation in Ukraine were the main driver for the Russian FX market during the last two weeks. On the back of this, the exchange rate surpassed the R/$100 benchmark. The equity market also went down - by about 3%. Investors are also concerned by the CBR’s another ...

GDP y-o-y growth slows in 3Q24, dragged by agriculture and construction
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024

Rosstat published its flash 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate, and it appeared that economic growth slowed as it posted a mere 3.1% y-o-y as a preliminary figure. So far, Rosstat has not published any other 3Q24 GDP data, such as the nominal number or m-o-m growth (including seasonally adjusted). It...

Russian macro: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Nov 2024

In 9M24 the Russian economy continued to expand, albeit with some deceleration in recent months. However, in 2024 in total it may grow slightly faster amid a low base in 1Q23. In the currently evolved geopolitical reality, the Russian government has massively increased budgetary spending, which h...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Interest rates keep rising, and it happens not only due to rising inflation and the key rate hikes but also due to some regulatory measures. One problem is associated with banks’ need to comply with liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), as earlier this year, the CBR started to remove “reliefs” for the ...

The economy keeps growing amid soaring domestic demand and overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

Rosstat reported that in 9M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 4.9% y-o-y. It grew by 3.0% in September and posted clear signs of a deceleration. The latter looks organic amid a high base in 2H23. Industrial output ex...

The CBR hikes the key rate by 200 bps as inflation remains high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

Last Friday, the Central Bank hiked the key rate to 21%, well above market expectations. In October, inflation y-o-y will likely be about the same as in September, i.e., 8.6% or slightly higher. Note that inflation fell to low single-digit levels in 1H23 but has accelerated since then, driven by ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2024

After the end-September rally, the FX market recently remained relatively stable. The ruble hovers around USD/RUB 97 level and looks slightly undervalued. Technically, it may moderately appreciate in the coming weeks, especially if the CBR decides to raise the key rate. However, the budgetary spe...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024

The ruble weakened against the dollar in the past couple of weeks, and since Sep 25, it has lost about 3.5% of its value. On the one hand, the settlement for imports has more or less normalized in September, which fuelled demand for FX. On the other hand, the dollar strengthened globally, and som...

Economic growth gradually decelerates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2024

Rosstat reported that in 8M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 5.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it increased by a mere 1.7%. This sharp deceleration was mainly caused by agriculture, as it was down y-o-y by 14.7% and 3.2%...

Russian macro: The 2025 budget looks reasonable but the 2024 amendments puzzle investors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024

In recent days, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma the final draft of a three-year rolling budget (2025-2027) that at a glance looked quite peculiar, although that is not unusual. As macroeconomic growth forecasts supporting the budgetary planning were usually conservative, while ...

Industrial growth moderates but still looks not too bad
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

Russian industrial output grew y-o-y by 4.5% and 2.7% in 8M24 and August alone. In the latter case, according to Rosstat, it grew by 0.8% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 1H24 industry grew by 5.0%. Some moderation of the y-o-y growth looked natural as in 2023 it grew by over 6.0% from Augu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

The CBR decided to hike the key rate to 19% (from 18%), which became the most important event for Russian markets in the past couple of weeks. In addition, the regulator kept a hawkish tone in the minutes of the BoD meeting. According to the document, the members of the BoD “calibrated” the state...

Balance of payments and budget remain reasonably stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus reached $40.5 bln in 8M24 (in August alone, it was $2.5 bln). As the oil prices have been on a downward trend since July, Russia’s exports also declined, having reached $33.0 bln in August (in May and June, exports were about $36.6 and $35.4 bln)....

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The situation in the FX market improved. The CBR efforts supported by the market participants helped to restore regular flow between OTC and the exchanges. As a result, the spread between domestic and international USD/CNY rates evaporated. On top of that, the CNY money market in Russia stabilize...

Russian Macro: GDP Growth to Slow: Aftermath of Overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

A month ago, in the aftermath of the its key rate hike decision, the CBR warned that the Russian economy is operating at full capacity and the demand is overheated by domestic credit and generous budgetary spending. Hence, inflation was high and accelerating. Therefore, some decisive action was r...

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