Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2024

Oct 3 Borrowings: Kazakhstan placed sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln at a 4.717% yield. The demand was strong as issuance was oversubscribed by a factor of 4. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will provide the largest compensation for oil overproduction within OPEC+ in October  Oct 6 President: A con...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge correction looks healthy and will stabilize tax flow in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently reported that tax revenues of the National Fund amounted to KZT2.980 trln in 9M24, i.e., about 50% of the annual plan (KZT5.957 trln). In 8M24, the government accumulated KZT2.863 trln (48.1% of the plan). As one can see, revenue flow remained sluggish in...

Kazakhstan placed Sovereign Eurobonds worth $1.5 bln
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2024

Last week, Kazakhstan issued 10Y Sovereign Eurobonds for the first time since 2015. The issue was $1.5 bln, and the spread over the US Treasuries was 88 bps. The main purpose of this borrowing was the refinancing of the bond, which is due to mature on Oct 14 (and the amount is the same - $1.5 bln...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2024

Sep 23 Ministry of Agriculture: The Government of Kazakhstan has upgraded the 2024 grain harvest forecast and expects to harvest at least 20 mln tons versus 13-14 mln tons earlier. Government: Kazakhstan will increase financing of the agriculture industry by 20% to $1.5 bln in 2025. Sep 24 Presid...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary policy to gradually improve
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Sep 2024

The August budgetary statistics brought no surprises as trends that had emerged previously remain the same. At the same time, recent statistics and some official publications hinted at some changes in budgetary policy and the implications for exchange rate dynamics. Even though the tenge weakened...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2024

Sep 5 Government: The First Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Sklyar, met with Gazprom's CEO, Mr. Miller, to discuss issues of cooperation. Government: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan want to create a trade and logistics hub on the border, investments are estimated at $62 mln. Sep 6 Energy Ministry: Kazakhsta...

Steady economic performance in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator that captures economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, communications, trade, and transportation combined with warehousing grew by 4.4% y-o-y in 8M24 (up from 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24). Construction was the fastes...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Sep 2024

Aug 22 OPEC+: The OPEC has received updated compensation plans from Kazakhstan for the 7M24 over-production of oil volumes, which totaled about 1 699K bpd. KMG: The company and Chinese CNPC intend to launch urea production at the Zhanazholsky gas processing plant worth $1.5 bln. KMG: The company ...

Kazakhstan macro budget performance, macroeconomic policy: history repeats itself in 2024, but is likely to change going forward
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Ministry of Finance recently released 7M24 budgetary statistics and the government's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, confirming that tax revenues remained far from perfect in July, as the government accumulated only 44.1% of the annual planned revenues in the consolidated budget in 7M24. T...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth gradually decelerates, dragged by delayed budgetary spending, strong tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Aug 2024

In recent publications, the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan has provided additional color on the country’s macroeconomic performance of the past few months. According to the Bureau, the nation’s GDP grew by 3.2% y-o-y in 1H24, which looked unimpressive compared to last year’s 5.1% gro...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

Aug 7 President: Mr. Tokayev approved the national development plan until 2029. According to the document, Kazakhstan's GDP in 2029 should reach $450 bln (vs $225 bln in 2023). GDP per capita in 2029 is targeted at $21,1K (in 2023 - $13,3K). The share of expenditures on food products as a percent...

Decent GDP growth in July amid ongoing structural transformation and some unresolved issues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024 · 2 responses

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (measuring activity in six main segments of the economy) grew by 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24 (up from 3.9% y-o-y in 1H24). The services sector continued to evolve smoothly as retail sales expanded by 7.1% and 5.9% in 7M24 and July (y...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge has weakened in recent months but still looks too strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Aug 2024

The National Bank of Kazakhstan recently published its first estimate of the 2Q24 balance of payments, which revealed that after briefly showing a surplus in 1Q24 the current account balance once again turned red. Being negative is the more usual condition for the Kazakh current account as the in...

Bi-Weekly Economic news summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Aug 2024

Jul 29 Government: Kazakhstan has extended the ban on the import of wheat by all means of transport until the end of 2024. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan produced 44.7 mln tons of oil in 1H24. In 2023 as a whole, it extracted 90 mln tons. CPC: The company put one of the three of its oil-filling devi...

Kazakhstan macro: Lacking tax revenue, the emphasis is on non-tax revenue
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jul 2024

As the tenge recently hovered about USD/KZT 475, which was much better for the budget than USD/KZD 440s, it seemed insufficient to obtain more tax revenues. A year ago, we argued that a USD/KZT level above 500 would have been much more desirable for collecting additional tax revenues, as well as ...