GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Q2 national accounts reinforced the loss of momentum in activity so far in 2026. Both total and non-mining GDP remained broadly stagnant in H1. We have therefore revised our 2026 GDP growth forecast down to 0.5%. Nonetheless, we remain relatively optimistic about 2027. High copper prices conti...

Chile's Tough Tariff Dilemma

CHILE · In Brief · 14 Aug 2026

The Chilean political and business class is still digesting the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5% tariff on a large share of Chilean exports. While the country will certainly take an economic hit, the real question is political, as the move challenges several assumptions that have guided ...

The Mega Bill nears the finish line

CHILE · Report · 31 Jul 2026

Chile’s Reconstruction and Economic and Social Development Bill (also known as the Mega Bill) is now approaching the final stage of the legislative process. Combining tax cuts, employment subsidies and regulatory reform, the bill has survived nearly every legislative hurdle pretty much intact. No...

Omnibus closer to approval, but further from working its magic

CHILE · Report · 06 Jul 2026

Recent data points to further weakness in domestic activity. Mining and manufacturing explained most of the contraction, but the pace of expansion remained weak, even when these sectors are excluded. Consumption-related indicators were somewhat more resilient. The picture is increasingly gloomy, ...

How does MEPCO work? A brief guide to understanding how fuel prices are stabilized

CHILE · Report · 10 Jun 2026

The Fuel Price Stabilization Mechanism (MEPCO), as its name suggests, is a mechanism that seeks to smooth sharp changes in consumer fuel prices. In principle, it does not seek to eliminate increases or declines, but rather to ensure that they reach the market gradually. Its main objective is t...

Kast’s State of the Union: Fiscal Stress

CHILE · In Brief · 02 Jun 2026

Three months into office, President José Antonio Kast’s first June 1 “State of the Union” should have been a victory lap. Instead, it was an attempt to reset the government’s political narrative. The speech clarified the administration’s priorities on security, fiscal correction, and growth. It a...

A hard day's start

CHILE · Report · 01 Jun 2026

We maintain our 1.5% GDP growth forecast for 2026, with risks still tilted to the downside. The latest activity data point to an unfavorable turn, and national accounts came in weaker than suggested by the IMACEC. Some of the weaknesses reflect one-time supply side events, but these do not fully ...

Kast on the Defensive

CHILE · In Brief · 20 May 2026

President José Antonio Kast entered office two months ago with a very clear remit: restore security and regain control of migration. He promised that after years of political volatility, Chile would get order. Perhaps even become boring. Yesterday’s departure of Security Minister Trinidad Steiner...

Navigating the shock, waiting for momentum

CHILE · Report · 29 Apr 2026

GDP decelerated sharply in H2 2025, and this weakness extended into early 2026. Growth would need to gain significant momentum in the coming months to reach an average of 2% for 2026. In addition to weak data for the first months of the year, the economy is facing a negative income shock from hig...

Kast's Big Beautiful Bill

CHILE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2026

President José Antonio Kast has framed his National Reconstruction Plan as a response to the three crises he claims Chile is facing: economic, political and security. Kast knows that of the three, it is security that has been uppermost in the electorate’s mind. Yet the Plan appears to be centered...

Fuel Prices Increase

CHILE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

Yesterday, the government announced measures that will take effect this Thursday, March 26, increasing gasoline prices at the pump by 34% and diesel prices by 70%. The stated objective is to prevent a short-term decline in fiscal revenues resulting from the reduction in the specific fuel tax unde...

A government in a hurry; an economy in a daze

CHILE · Report · 24 Mar 2026

Growth close to its potential rate and a nearly balanced current account suggest that the Chilean economy is operating broadly in equilibrium. GDP rose 2.5% in 2025, above the preliminary 2.3% growth indicated by the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC). The upside surprise was largely exp...

Kast’s Blast from the Past

CHILE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

José Antonio Kast has entered Chile’s presidential palace, becoming the first president since Carlos Ibañez del Camp, who left office in 1958, to make the Moneda palace the presidential residence. The move is meant to be a sign of austerity and offer the promise of hard work. Like much of Kast’s ...

The Chile-US Cable Spat

CHILE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Chile-US relations were struck a firm blow last week when the United States revoked the visas of Chilean Transport and Telecommunications Minister Juan Carlos Muñoz and two other officials, accusing them of actions that could “compromise critical telecommunications infrastructure” and undermine r...

Monetary policy and the fiscal rule under strain

CHILE · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Activity continues sluggish. We therefore maintain our near-term interpretation of stable growth at close to potential, with a modest upside bias from improved sentiment. Business sentiment improved sharply in January 2026. But hard data released at the end of 2025 reinforces our cautious view. I...