Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Chile's local elections: Implications
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

A year out from its next presidential vote, Chile held elections on Sunday for local authorities. These include governors, mayors and city council members. Local elections are seen as a barometer of political strength. On Sunday night President Gabriel Boric said that the results were “sweet and ...

Volatility and divergence
CHILE · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Economic activity has been characterized by significant volatility, and uneven performance across sectors. Data related to consumption, including commerce, services and taxes on products, remain largely stagnant. Investment-related data also reveal limited dynamism. But manufacturing experienced ...

Change of mind
CHILE · Report · 13 Sep 2024

The significant expansion of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) in July should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent data show increased volatility. These wide swings were primarily driven by successive one-off events. Everything points to a likely reversion in the IMACEC in coming m...

Reality check
CHILE · Report · 22 Jul 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank's early-year optimism is losing steam. After progress in January and February, the next three consecutive IMACEC readings showed a negative trend. The overall negative effect of the IMACEC is particularly evident in the industrial sector. While the manufacturing sector declines, ...

Electricity tariff adjustments and CPI impact
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024 · 1 response

After the social unrest at the end of 2019, electricity rates to households were frozen. This freeze has resulted in a shortfall for the electricity companies of approx. $6 billion. Since October 2019, the electricity CPI has only increased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 25.8% rise in the headline...

A deceptive first quarter
CHILE · Report · 30 May 2024

At first glance, Q1 activity data appears positive compared to the recent past. However, this improvement results from a smaller-than-usual drop in activity during the holiday months, rather than from an increase in GDP. A significant part is explained by household consumption. Upon closer inspec...

The CBCH is like a kingfisher in a speedboat
CHILE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Two consecutive positive surprises in the IMACEC were swiftly followed by an upward revision of the Central Bank’s 2024 GDP growth forecast. Still, the positive result was largely attributable to a milder-than-usual seasonal decline in economic activity, rather than to genuine growth. While macro...

Chile: Progressive policy creep
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

It seems that Boric has stopped trying to appeal to the center. His popularity—forever stuck in the 25-30% range—is unlikely to rise, or fall. Looking ahead, Boric told his cabinet, “In the remaining two years of government, (we need) not to make promises, (but) to fulfill them.” Boric, like most...

February CPI and monetary policy implications
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...

When the music's over
CHILE · Report · 04 Mar 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank took a significant step in January, by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 100bp and adjusting its baseline scenario to a more accelerated convergence towards the neutral level. The new timeline for the TPM's convergence to its neutral level is set for the second half of 2...

Fires and pensions: When it doesn’t rain it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024 · 1 response

It is not uncommon for the Chilean summer to be fairly dry. The country’s central valley barely sees a drop of rain between the months of November and March. As the winters have got drier as well, summer wildfires have become more common. In recent days, several fires have appeared around the cou...

Post-COVID fatigue
CHILE · Report · 28 Dec 2023 · 1 response

The latest Central Bank Monetary Policy Report offers a surprisingly positive outlook for economic activity. But, in our view, activity remains stagnant. The only good news comes from the construction sector, which appears to be at a potential turning point, after hitting historical lows. The ind...

Looking beyond the Chile’s constitutional moment
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

On Sunday, for the second time in as many years, Chileans have voted on a constitutional proposal designed by a democratically elected assembly. And for the second time, they have rejected it, with 55.8% against, versus 44.2% voting in favor. Whereas the 2022 proposal seemed to be far more progre...

Waiting for a new constitution
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

The results of Sunday’s constitutional referendum are anyone’s guess. Most polls have consistently showed that Chileans will reject the most recent proposal. But four years after the 2019 protests which led to a seemingly endless constitutional debate, there is a sense of constitutional and elect...

Fear of floating vs. fear of falling
CHILE · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

The August IMACEC delivered a pretty big surprise -- and not a good one. Beyond the monthly volatility, economic activity has remained stagnant since late 2022, and the output gap continues to narrow. In August, retail sales recorded a negative monthly change for the eighth consecutive month. In ...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.