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Soft data and hard politics
CHILE · Report · 25 Nov 2025

IMACEC volatility remains high, reinforcing the need to interpret monthly prints from a wider perspective. GDP results confirmed a soft third quarter. Mining disruptions were the main drag, but private consumption growth also moderated. Although the most recent data look stronger, we interpret it...

Chile's Economists: a first tentative dance
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2025

Some media outlets have reported that a group of economists who had supported Evelyn Matthei’s presidential campaign have already signed on to the Kast bandwagon. The reality is somewhat more tentative. However, talks are underway. A meeting was held on Tuesday morning between Kast’s economic adv...

Webinar replay - Chile election briefing: After the general elections
CHILE · Report · 18 Nov 2025

Were there any surprises in the results of Chile's congressional and presidential elections? Have Chilean voters become polarized? What challenges and opportunities do the presidential candidates face to consolidate support and appeal to voters? Will their strategies shift to the center? What are...

Election update: Kast in pole position for runoff
CHILE · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

As expected, Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast will face each other in Chile’s runoff presidential election on 14 December. Less expected was Jara’s poor showing, winning just 26.8% of the vote, even less than the 30% support the Boric government tends to maintain. José Antonio Kast (24%), Joh...

The last polls
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025

It does not feel like electoral season in Chile. Historically, elections saw the country’s streets plastered (or littered) with political advertising. But the increasing domination of social media in politics has translated into much less money being spent on street signage. At the same time, man...

The sound of silence
CHILE · Report · 29 Oct 2025

The August economic activity data represented something of a setback. We treat these signals with caution: base effects from a year ago remain relevant, and the within-sector pattern is irregular. One-offs continue to drive commerce figures. The level of seasonally-adjusted manufacturing remained...

Slide presentation and webinar replay: Chile election briefing - Going into the first round
CHILE · Presentation · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response

What is the current state of play ahead of Chile's first round of elections? Who is favored to advance and win the presidency? What trends will shape the likely composition of Congress? View the slide presentation or watch the replay from our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Chile Anal...

Economic stagnation meets polarized elections
CHILE · Report · 25 Sep 2025

Since February 2023, the Chilean economy has grown at an average rate of about 2.5%. The path, however, has been marred by sharp swings. July’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) rose 1% m/m (sa) and 1.8% y/y, recovering part of June’s drop. Health services led July’s rebound. This is mo...

Mind the calm, not the gap
CHILE · Report · 26 Aug 2025

In June the IMACEC was up 3.1% y/y, but that figure overstates momentum: much of the improvement reflects base effects and one-offs. Underlying consumption trends remain closer to stagnation than expansion. Business sentiment is still stuck in pessimistic territory, consistent with the slow pace ...

Marcel resigns
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025

Chile's Finance Minister, Mario Marcel, widely viewed as a guarantor of economic responsibility, resigned this morning. He claims to have made the move  for personal reasons. The widely held view is that he may take up a position at the IMF. Others say he may join the Jara campaign, although this...

Baseline scenario confirmed: U.S. tariffs exclude Chilean copper inputs
CHILE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

According to the official White House communication, the new tariff package imposes a 50% ad valorem duty on imports of certain semi-fabricated copper products (e.g., tubes, wires, rods, and sheets) and copper-intensive downstream goods (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical c...

Steady as she goes
CHILE · Report · 15 Jul 2025

Despite the headline boost in May’s IMACEC, the underlying momentum remains soft. The y/y figures will likely stay high into June, due to favorable base effects. IMACEC’s consumption-related sectors and retail sales point to softening consumption dynamics. This is echoed in commerce sentiment. Wi...

Chile's presidential primaries: the specter of Communism
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025

In the introduction to the Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx announced that “a spectre is haunting Europe”. Marx had designed Communism to be a threat to the established order, and by the time he wrote his treatise, the established order was worried. Because early Communism stuck to its revolutionar...

A tale of two realms: economic silence and political noise
CHILE · Report · 27 May 2025

The Chilean economy has grown rather uneventful. Macroeconomic data points to a balanced economy with limited growth potential. National accounts for Q1 2025 confirm that growth is mostly export-led, while investment remains weak. Gross fixed capital formation growth y/y was positive in Q1, but t...

Cherries, tourists, tariffs and expectations
CHILE · Report · 07 Apr 2025

A breeze of optimism has swept across Chile. According to the national accounts, GDP grew by 2.6% in 2024. Still, we are not revising our baseline 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 just yet. Several factors prompt caution. First, statistical distortions have been at work. Second, some temporary dri...

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