Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - ECUADOR RUNOFF: SHIFTING VOTES AND THE ROAD AHEAD...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Chilean presidential elections: Tohá in, Bachelet out
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2025

With the end of the antipodean summer comes the start of the school year in Chile. The days get shorter, traffic gets worse, and presidential candidates begin to position themselves. While on the center-right Evelyn Matthei has been a fairly official candidate – and has been leading in the polls ...

Spring shoots in autumn?
CHILE · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The economy appears to be gaining momentum. Three consecutive months of positive variation in the IMACEC marks a clear shift away from a prolonged period of stagnation, and supports the 2% growth being forecast for 2025. The economy now appears poised to expand at a pace closer to its potential. ...

A pension deal? Political wrinkles and potential economic impact
CHILE · Report · 28 Jan 2025

The summer break is well underway in Chile. And by the time things gear up again in March, the presidential and congressional election campaigns will be as well. Primaries, to be held at the end of June, are now less than six months away. Recall that presidential and congressional elections will ...

What to Expect from the Monetary Policy Meeting
CHILE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024 · 1 response

For the Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM), I remain undecided regarding the decision (50/50 between -25pb and no cut). Arguments in favor of a 25bp cut: Macroeconomic analysis indicates that the Central Bank has plenty of room to continue reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM). Market expectations a...

Signs, bridging fissures
CHILE · Report · 29 Nov 2024 · 1 response

The seasonally-adjusted IMACEC saw a steep monthly contraction in September, primarily due to an unusually high concentration of holidays. This year’s atypical seasonality is particularly evident in manufacturing data. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying trends point to stagnation. While 12...

Chile's local elections: Implications
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

A year out from its next presidential vote, Chile held elections on Sunday for local authorities. These include governors, mayors and city council members. Local elections are seen as a barometer of political strength. On Sunday night President Gabriel Boric said that the results were “sweet and ...

Volatility and divergence
CHILE · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Economic activity has been characterized by significant volatility, and uneven performance across sectors. Data related to consumption, including commerce, services and taxes on products, remain largely stagnant. Investment-related data also reveal limited dynamism. But manufacturing experienced ...

Change of mind
CHILE · Report · 13 Sep 2024

The significant expansion of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) in July should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent data show increased volatility. These wide swings were primarily driven by successive one-off events. Everything points to a likely reversion in the IMACEC in coming m...

Reality check
CHILE · Report · 22 Jul 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank's early-year optimism is losing steam. After progress in January and February, the next three consecutive IMACEC readings showed a negative trend. The overall negative effect of the IMACEC is particularly evident in the industrial sector. While the manufacturing sector declines, ...

Electricity tariff adjustments and CPI impact
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024 · 1 response

After the social unrest at the end of 2019, electricity rates to households were frozen. This freeze has resulted in a shortfall for the electricity companies of approx. $6 billion. Since October 2019, the electricity CPI has only increased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 25.8% rise in the headline...

A deceptive first quarter
CHILE · Report · 30 May 2024

At first glance, Q1 activity data appears positive compared to the recent past. However, this improvement results from a smaller-than-usual drop in activity during the holiday months, rather than from an increase in GDP. A significant part is explained by household consumption. Upon closer inspec...

The CBCH is like a kingfisher in a speedboat
CHILE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Two consecutive positive surprises in the IMACEC were swiftly followed by an upward revision of the Central Bank’s 2024 GDP growth forecast. Still, the positive result was largely attributable to a milder-than-usual seasonal decline in economic activity, rather than to genuine growth. While macro...

Chile: Progressive policy creep
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

It seems that Boric has stopped trying to appeal to the center. His popularity—forever stuck in the 25-30% range—is unlikely to rise, or fall. Looking ahead, Boric told his cabinet, “In the remaining two years of government, (we need) not to make promises, (but) to fulfill them.” Boric, like most...

February CPI and monetary policy implications
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...

When the music's over
CHILE · Report · 04 Mar 2024 · 1 response

The Central Bank took a significant step in January, by reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) by 100bp and adjusting its baseline scenario to a more accelerated convergence towards the neutral level. The new timeline for the TPM's convergence to its neutral level is set for the second half of 2...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.