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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Decentralization dream could become a fiscal nightmare
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Oct 2024 · 1 response

Colombian Congress has a relatively good track record in fiscal prudence: an insane number of tax reforms have been approved over the last three decades; two fiscal rules and a fiscal responsibility law have been enacted; and fiscal sustainability was enshrined in the Constitution in 2011. There ...

The coup d'état that wasn’t
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024

On October 8th, 2024, The National Electoral Council (NEC), the body investigating possible financing infringements by the Petro presidential campaign, filed charges against president Petro, the campaign manager Ricardo Roa (current CEO of Ecopetrol), and other members of the campaign staff. That...

Webinar Replay - Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

Visit our calendar page to to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update", which details economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms.

Slide Presentation: Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Get insight into economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update".

FinMin and Congress square off
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Oct 2024

The most interesting pistol duel of this legislature is taking place between the minister of finance and the congressional opposition. The issue at hand is a two-headed beast, composed of the 2025 budget and the so-called financing act (aka the second tax reform). The budget implicitly takes for ...

Budget stalemate; what now?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Sep 2024 · 2 responses

On September 11th, the economic committees of the House and the Senate did not come to an agreement on the size of the national budget for 2025. Votes were insufficient to approve the size proposed by the Government, but votes also came short to reduce its size to a specific number. Even though t...

Let’s not celebrate growth results just yet
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Sep 2024

Economic activity data showing 2.1% real growth in Q2 2024 over Q2 2023 suggests that the economy might be changing gears, and accelerating, from its meager 0.8% growth in Q1. Key sectors that have been clear laggards, such as construction and commerce, are finally moving into positive territory....

A bigger fiscal deficit and a tragicomedy unlikely to end well
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Aug 2024 · 5 responses

The publication of the 2024 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework in June revealed some shocking developments about this year’s fiscal policy. Chief among them were a substantial shortfall in revenues, a humongous required reduction in primary spending and an increase in the year-end national central gove...

Bad news everywhere
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 2 responses

The nuts and bolts of the 2024 MTFF have little to do with the much-required process of fiscal consolidation. It turns out most of the negative rumors we’d been hearing were true. A root problem behind the mess was over-optimistic initial revenue estimates. The central government originally expec...

Fiscal rules, healthcare debacles and constitutional assemblies
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 May 2024 · 1 response

There has been so much news in Colombia, so much of it bad, that pinning down the most striking or damaging pieces poses a challenge. To start at the top: the most frequent theme of President Gustavo Petro’s many speeches seems to be his idea for convoking a constitutional assembly. That – which ...

Slide Presentation: Colombia - A turbulent year
COLOMBIA · Report · 17 May 2024 · 3 responses

Gain insight into the current challenges facing Colombia as we discuss the prospects for rate cuts, health care and pension reform, and the fiscal situation in our slide presentation "Colombia - A turbulent year".

On campaign financing limits and an eventual impeachment of the president
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 May 2024 · 2 responses

Norms regulating campaign financing are simple and strict in Colombia. On May 8th, the National Electoral Council (NEC) is considering a draft ruling indicating that, in the 2022 presidential elections, Gustavo Petro’s campaign surpassed the financing limits. We follow the analysis of the renowne...

15 minutes of fame for everyone
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The drastic reduction of Colombia’s external imbalance, in the last quarter of 2022 and all of 2023, was a most welcome development. For starters, monetary policy decisions are no longer facing the two-headed hydra of inflation plus excessive domestic demand. Furthermore, FDI is comfortably finan...

Power supply dangerously close to critical condition
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2024 · 2 responses

The Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) issues on a regular basis a reference daily path for the National Interconnected System reservoirs’ aggregate level. This path is considered to be the minimum required to guarantee that power supply meets demand; should the aggregate level fall...

Healthcare reform sunk in Congress, but reform drive continues at full steam
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

In spite of resorting to all the tricks in the known universe, the government could not stop the sinking of the healthcare reform in Congress, after 8 Senators in the 7th Committee presented a motion to sink it two weeks ago (Ponencia de Arichivo). After many days and weeks in which the governmen...

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