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One more president putting himself to shame
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2025 · 5 responses

In Colombia, it is a presidential prerogative to incur in unforced errors precisely when they hurt the most. Namely, convoke a referendum or a plebiscite as a last resort to avoid losing face, and end up in the worst scenario of failing to get the referendum or plebiscite approved, losing face an...

Cabinet outrage ignores realpolitik
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The government, as is its custom on every subject, has been quick to celebrate on social media (and everywhere possible) the great 2024 labor market results. Officials say these show that economic recovery is fully underway; that the right is peddling a false tale that the economy is ailing; and ...

Belligerence nearly tanks a critical relationship
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

The usual friendly weekend vibe was ruined for many Colombians on Sunday, January 26th, when a dispute over Colombia’s refusal to receive a planeload of undocumented Colombians arriving from the United States broke out between U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro – th...

The Petro administration declared two simultaneous emergencies
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A critical region located on the border with Venezuela, where Ecopetrol produces oil, and coca plantations and cocaine laboratories abound, is currently the theater of war between the guerrilla of ELN, on one side, and FARC dissidents on the other. These events have been particularly harsh recent...

One last vote under a hawkish Central Bank Board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A more dovish Central Bank Board is on the way, as President Petro announced that Laura Moisá and César Giraldo will become members of the Board. Ms. Moisá, an economist from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a PhD in Economic Development from Unicamp in Brazil, is currently the Deputy Preside...

Guevara’s headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The 2024 congressional sessions didn’t end well for the government. First and foremost, Congress sank the mini-tax reform, the Ley de Financiamiento. President Gustavo Petro reacted badly to this, announcing that “the budget crisis will not be paid for by the people,” and promising to: 1) explore...

Slide presentation - Outlook for Colombia: Does all this add up?
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Get insight into the outlook for Colombia's growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and the positioning so far for the 2026 presidential election. Which industries are driving growth, and can they maintain momentum into year-end? What are the prospects for monetary policy into 2025? What is the poten...

Webinar replay - Latin America in 2025: How worried should we be?
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024

2024 was a volatile year for Latin America. Domestic political risks and fiscal risks in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia compounded a complicated external environment. How challenging will 2025 be? What risks does the second Trump US presidency present for Mexico? How will increasing uncertainty im...

Bonilla asked to leave at a crucial juncture
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Dec 2024

In light of the accusations regarding Finance Minister Bonilla’s involvement in mishandling public funds to obtain favors from Congress, President Petro asked for his resignation. In the afternoon hours of December 4th, Mr. Bonilla has agreed to do so. The timing could not be worse. The Financing...

Congress won in ill-advised regional transfers plan
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Dec 2024

Q3 2024 growth at 2% was low in y/y terms, although higher than population growth, the lowest threshold to keep Colombia from getting poorer. Many things stand out. First, there is a base effect, because 2023 GDP growth was low, at -0.6% during Q3, and a very disappointing 0.6% for the year. Seco...

Decentralization dream could become a fiscal nightmare
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Oct 2024 · 2 responses

Colombian Congress has a relatively good track record in fiscal prudence: an insane number of tax reforms have been approved over the last three decades; two fiscal rules and a fiscal responsibility law have been enacted; and fiscal sustainability was enshrined in the Constitution in 2011. There ...

The coup d'état that wasn’t
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024

On October 8th, 2024, The National Electoral Council (NEC), the body investigating possible financing infringements by the Petro presidential campaign, filed charges against president Petro, the campaign manager Ricardo Roa (current CEO of Ecopetrol), and other members of the campaign staff. That...

Webinar Replay - Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

Visit our calendar page to to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update", which details economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms.

Slide Presentation: Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2024

Get insight into economic conditions in Colombia, the country's political outlook and the forecast for reforms with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia Macro, Politics and Reforms Update".

FinMin and Congress square off
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Oct 2024

The most interesting pistol duel of this legislature is taking place between the minister of finance and the congressional opposition. The issue at hand is a two-headed beast, composed of the 2025 budget and the so-called financing act (aka the second tax reform). The budget implicitly takes for ...

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