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Ecopetrol’s CEO first day in office
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

Public policy announcements made by government officials are one thing, and corporate strategy announcements, made by a business group CEO are an entirely different matter. If someone in government thinks, rightly or wrongly, that Colombia must eventually abandon oil and gas, that's up to them. T...

Presidential cabinet crisis
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2023

In the evening of April 25 president Petro twitted: “1. Our invitation to a social pact for change has been rejected. Those who have made fortunes with public moneys don’t realize that society at large asks for their rights to be respected; and that that implies dialogue and agreements. “2. The p...

Bread for today, hunger for tomorrow
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The Petro administration’s new pension bill is potentially game-changing: fewer than 30% of Colombians of retirement age and beyond currently have access to old-age protection. Reform would generate massive movements of people and money, & create considerable fiscal impacts. Under any scenario un...

My way or the highway
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Mainstream indicators reveal a pessimistic sentiment: the COP exchange rate, migration data, capital flight, consumer sentiment and surveys about the state of the nation under President Gustavo Petro all indicate a souring of outlook. Colombians are visibly moving either their assets or their bod...

Getting used to the new normal
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations, President Gustavo Petro is managing his politics quite well -- and for some that creates disconcert and awe. Constant criticism of him falls mostly on deaf ears. This is the historical moment for Petro's ideas and leadership, and ordinary people want to know if they were...

Channeling Yogi Berra
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Dec 2022 · 1 response

In the wake of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse, the COP/dollar depreciated 50% in nominal and 20% in real terms. Yet exports were far from experiencing a boost. The textbook effect from the devaluation on exports seemed to have stop working. But after the worst effects of the pandemic started to...

If FDI can’t sub for oil, we’ll need to live on remittances instead
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2022 · 1 response

GDP growth posted a strong 7% result in Q3. Yet across most sectors (except for oil & mining and construction), growth keeps losing momentum. Manufacturing and commerce are losing steam. Public administration spending plunged, which does not help growth but might be good news for fiscal results. ...

Carrasquilla sacked from Central Bank board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Section 5 of the State Council (one of Colombia's three high courts) declared void the appointment of Alberto Carrasquilla as board member of the Central Bank. According to the statement published to announce the decision, the appointment of Mr. Carrasquilla did not observe the share of women req...

Webinar replay - Colombia: Easier said than done
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Nov 2022

Get insight into Colombia's macro economic and political outlook. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar, "Colombia: Easier said than done", featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing Colombia's politics and governance, monetary policy, and how the country ...

Slide presentation - Colombia: Easier said than done
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Nov 2022

Access the pdf fil​e of the presentation​ from the GlobalSource Partners webinar "Colombia: Easier said than done" for insight into Colombia's macro economic and political outlook.

Habemus tributum
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

After almost two months of discussions, the tax reform of the Petro administration is almost a reality. We say “almost”, because the texts approved by the Senate and the House are not identical, which means that a reconciled version will have to be approved early next week. As we do not expect an...

Courting chaos
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

A central tenet of Colombian economic policy is that a finance minister’s economic announcements always have the full backing of the president. That is why, before making key announcements or presenting reforms, the minister always secures the president’s blessing. He then speaks on the president...

When governments talk, markets react
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022 · 1 response

At the beginning of 2022, Colombian Treasury Bills (TES - for its acronym in Spanish) outstanding were close to COP 400 trillion (tn); currently, they are reaching almost COP 450 tn. Hence, the government has issued TES handsomely, continuing a high-sloping trend exhibited since COVID hit the eco...

Everything, everywhere, all at once
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2022 · 2 responses

Pension reform was one of President Gustavo Petro’s key campaign issues. He emphasized increasing coverage of the old-age protection system, and diverting to Colpensiones, the public pay-as-you-go system administrator, the bulk of current contributions to mandatory private pension funds. Implem...

Playing LEGO with Colombian security
COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Sep 2022

A la Obama or Trump, Gustavo Petro initiated his presidency with apparent use of executive orders. They don’t even need to be written down -- just uttered into the presidential microphone, in any meeting, before any small population, at any time of day. In most instances, the new approach comes t...

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