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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA public external debt service appears (mostly) manageable over 2025-26
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

I continue exploring the external side of the CCA economies as the more challenging global backdrop in the wake of Trump's tariffs may add to the already worsening CA dynamics that I discussed earlier in Apr. In this report I examine the public external debt profile and debt service for 2025 and...

How much does Argentina's new economic plan differ from the previous one?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

Two weeks into Argentina’s new economic plan, which received strong support from the IMF, we have a clearer picture of what we can and cannot expect from it. Three things stand out. First, it is not the third phase of the same plan, as the government claims, but a new plan that was introduced bec...

Non-interest central government cash deficit down in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025

Two days ago, when we released our new quarterly forecast report, we were still unable to give any breakdown of the Q1 cash balance of the central government, because the respective official data had not been published yet. So we could not present how exactly the annualised cash deficit ratio ros...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Inflation rebounds, Banxico should think twice about relaxing monetary policy in May
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025

Annual inflation in the first half of April rebounded due to increases in both core and non-core inflation, erasing the progress made earlier in the year…●Consumer price inflation in the first half of April rose to an annual rate of 3.96%, approaching December 2024's level of 3.99%.●The core infl...

The President of the INSS was dismissed yesterday, Hugo Motta said the income tax bill has “far greater appeal” than the amnesty bill, and Lula may appoint the president of Telebras as the new Minister of Communications
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2025

The President of the National Institute of Social Security (INSS), Alessandro Stefanutto, was dismissed yesterday, April 23. He had been suspended from his position earlier that same day by a court ruling that imposed a six-month removal following a joint operation by the Federal Police and the O...

Pulled from the edge of the cliff
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The victory on April 13, 2025 of President Daniel Noboa over Luisa Gonzalez by approximately 11 points was unexpected by everyone—including the two candidates. At least 54% of Ecuadorians understood the danger of handing the country over to organized crime. The Electoral Council has yet to offici...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, sales services stagnated compared to the previous month, though they continued to post a strong year-over-year growth.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, revenues (sales) of private non-financial service providers increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year but remained unchanged from January (seasonally adjusted figures). This suggests that service sales continue to be an important driver of consumption and economic a...

Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, retail sales continued to grow, though at a slower pace compared to January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales kept declining.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025

In February 2025, retail sales maintained the growth observed in the previous month, albeit at a slower pace: They rose 1.7% year-over-year (compared to 2.7% in January) and 0.2% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted figures). As a result, the first two months of 2025 saw a cumulative annual incr...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly accelerates as tax collection improves
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation/warehousing, and IT/communications) grew by 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q25. In March alone, its y-o-y growth was even higher (9...

Pedro Lucas declined Lula’s ministerial invitation, Lula will formally present the Public Security PEC today, and the Joint Committee on payroll-deductible loans for workers should be installed today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The leader of União Brasil in the Lower House, Pedro Lucas (MA), has declined President Lula’s invitation to head the Ministry of Communications. Pedro Lucas’s refusal, in a way, weakens Senate President Alcolumbre, who coordinated the proposed reshuffle. Today President Lula will formally presen...

The battle for control of the political agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

Despite the Tiradentes holiday (April 21), a busy week is expected in Congress. President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), is in talks with congressional leaders about the Amnesty Bill. The União Brasil caucus is debating the appointment of its leader, Pedro Lucas (MA), to the Ministry...

Exports: macro vs micro
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

The WTO projects a 0.2 % drop in global trade volume in 2025, and the decline could be larger if reciprocal tariffs materialize—prompting downward revisions to Brazil’s export outlook. In addition, a slowing world economy is likely to push many commodity prices lower, as seen in recent weeks. The...

Past Liberation Day: a few changes to growth and inflation forecasts
HUNGARY · Forecast · 22 Apr 2025

The world has changed quite a bit since we published our previous forecast in January, because of Mr. Trump’s appearance on the scene, and especially his latest aggressive trade policy measures. The latter are pushing the global economy towards lower growth but also lower energy prices, both extr...

The opposition submitted the urgent status request for the Amnesty Bill, Pedro Lucas will meet with his party regarding his ministerial appointment, and the STF will decide on the PGR charges against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

The President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will meet with party leaders to discuss the Amnesty Bill. Last week, the opposition secured the support of 264 votes for the urgent status request to be brought to the floor. Federal Deputy and União Brasil leader in the House, Pedro Lucas...

More mixed data in March
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Apr 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The property sector in top-tier cities may be close to bottoming out, although this is still far from the case in the rest of China. - Growth in March came in much stronger than expected, and drove first-quarter growth also above expectations,...

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