2016: Two (very) different paths lie ahead

ARGENTINA - Forecast 31 Mar 2015 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano and Domingo Cavallo
Executive Summary Whoever runs the economy in the years to come will have to achieve, sooner or later, a balanced budget over the economic cycle (at least on average), a unified and free foreign exchange market with no restrictions on capital flows, foreign trade limited only by tariffs approved by the WTO with no quantitative restrictions, and a relative price structure that emerges from competition in free markets or, in the case of monopolistic public services, that at least covers variable costs and remunerates invested capital. Taking this direction is, we might say, “inexorable”. The ...

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