Politics: 2018 campaign entering critical phase

MEXICO - Report 15 Jan 2018 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

As the three coalitions embark on the final month of the preliminary phase of the presidential race, in which they are using the nomination contests -whose outcomes have been a foregone conclusion for some time- to get their candidates better known and polish their image, they also brace for an especially treacherous gap in the electoral calendar.

The ultimate outcome of the presidential contest might be largely settled in the next this next month, a period in which both PAN-PRD-MC presumptive nominee Ricardo Anaya and his PRI-PT-Panal rival José Antonio Meade compete to emerge as the main challenger to frontrunner Andrés Manuel López Obrador. So far Anaya has built on the visibility he enjoyed during many months of media coverage while PAN chairman, while Meade only got the nod to become the PRI nominee a little over a month ago and has yet to make a serious impression with over 60% of voters.

Though there are almost seven months to go before the election, a failure to attract a strong following before all campaigning is suspended between February 11, and the March 30 start of the general contest, one of the coalition nominees could find himself relegated to a distant third place. Breaking back into such a two-man race could prove to be too steep a challenge, especially given a number of risks that loom during the campaign eight-week hiatus, during which time politicians will be jostling for down-ballot nominations for almost 3,000 other federal and local offices, a process that has traditionally led some of those who fail to get the candidacies or promises of government posts they had hoped for to change party affiliation in search of more promising options.

That centrifugal dynamic may be further magnified this time by all major parties competing as part of national coalitions. One or more independents might yet make it on to the ballot, syphoning off votes in what is already expected to be a close vote, and more crucially, Nafta, corruption cases, and both political and criminal violence have emerged as major factors that could have a huge effect on the outcome of these elections.

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