2023 ended pretty weak, suggesting a weak start for 2024

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 17 Jan 2024 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this report:

* There were no surprises in Beijing’s recent economic data releases, either for December or for the full-year 2023. As expected, with annual GDP growth of 5.2 percent, China managed to exceed its GDP growth target, but (also as expected) not without a sharp increase in investment and an even sharper increase in the country’s debt burden.

* In recent months we have seen a shift in the locus of economic activity from the property sector to manufacturing, and while many analysts see this as an equivalent shift from non-productive investing to productive investment, I think we have to be very skeptical of this argument. The real shift is likely to have been from one form of non-productive investment to another.

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