Economics: 3Q and October employment numbers reveal deep downturn
Employment numbers at the third quarter and October of this year continue reflecting the downturn that began in the second quarter, in line with the economic growth posted in the same period. Wages have experienced a very slight downturn, also since the second quarter, but continue to grow at relatively high rates.
Total employed personnel increased an annual 0.6% in the third quarter, being the lowest growth rate for a quarter since the first three months of 2021. For October, total employed personnel declined -1.1%.
Growth in formal employment was a weak annual 1.7%, while for October it declined -0.5%. This contrasts sharply with the average growth for the first half of the year (3.1%) as well as for 2023 (3.7%) and 2022 (4.9%). Informal employment has maintained its decline for three consecutive quarters with similar decreases (annual 0.3%), while in October its fall intensified, dropping -1.6%.
In the week's indicators, it was announced that in October, industrial production weakened significantly, declining -1.2% with respect to September and -3.3% with regard to the same month of the previous year. With the exception of electricity, gas, and water, during the month all industrial components decreased in annual terms: mining -6.8%, construction -8.9%, and manufacturing -1.2%.
Industrial performance during October, together with a clear slowdown in services, confirms the expected weakening of GDP growth for the end of the year. It is estimated that in the final quarter, GDP will increase by only an annual 1.1%, which would mean that annual GDP would grow by 1.5% in 2024. It was also reported that consumer inflation for November 2024 again posted a decrease, this time to an annual 4.55% compared to the 4.76% registered a month earlier.
Unlike the previous month, the reduction can be attributed to the core component, which clocked in at 3.58%.
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