Politics: 4T and Morena electoral prospects for 2021
The terrible impact of the economic and health crises, an administration that has proven itself ineffective in almost every aspect of governing, and the negative trend in popularity of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (see last week’s Political Outlook) are factors that are complicating the ability of the incumbent party and its coalition partners to repeat their 2018 success at the polls next year. Much is riding on AMLO’s approval ratings and his ability to avoid a fracturing of his political coalition, as key players increasingly jostle to position themselves ahead of the 2024 presidential contest.
Should the governing coalition fail to defend its overwhelming majority in the Chamber of Deputies, it would deprive the president of his ability to pass his legislative agenda unless he can manage to negotiate deals with the opposition. And considering the extent to which the country has become politically polarized, and the affronts the president has directed at opposition parties and their politicians, the latter are more likely to be focused on obstructing any of the president’s designs.
Among all the registered voters we surveyed this month, fewer than a fourth said they intended to vote for Morena congressional candidates next year. But when we strip out the 40% of respondents who remain undecided and recalculate each party’s share of committed voters, Morena’s support and that of its allies swells to a level that would assure it 51% of seats in the lower chamber.
But it is far too soon to be making such predictions; with eight months to go, the most important variables that determine voter preferences on Election Day are likely to evolve considerably. And in the meantime, Morena has many hurdles to clear on its own, including a very intense leadership contest and the task of rebuilding a credible campaign machine.
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