A Cooling Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 15 Jul 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Three indicators point to cooling of the Brazilian economy: those for the labor market, industrial output and monthly GDP (IBC-Br). Brazil’s industrial production has not grown since 2010. The main reason for this stagnation is the rising unit labor cost. Despite clear signs of a weakening of the job market, with declines in the participation and occupation rates along with slower growth of real payroll levels, the unemployment rate is still near the historic low point and real wages continue to rise. When the job market was even hotter than it is now, the unemployment rate measured with co...

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