A Heavy Burden

ARGENTINA - Forecast 31 Jul 2015 by Domingo Cavallo
Executive Summary In Argentina nobody discusses the need for a correction in economic policy. The debate is only about the scale and the speed of the required adjustments. The old debate concerning “gradualism versus shock” has returned with the intensity it had in the literature of stabilization policies during the ‘80s. The macroeconomic adjustments, gradual or shock, will be tough. Fiscal results – excluding paper profits of the Central Bank and transfers from the Social Security System to the Treasury – show an overall fiscal deficit of around 6% of GDP in 2015. True, it is a significan...

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