A little bit of this, a little bit of that
Turkey’s (Kurdish) Peace Process got a boost from a new peace deal in Syria, but at home the going is very slow and torturous, because Peace Committee members can’t find a way to finesse Ocalan’s “right to hope” in their report to the Grand Assembly.
President Erdogan is changing tack in his Crusade against CHP: A new local administrations bill to devolve municipality authority to provincial governors.
In foreign affairs, the politics author remains extremely worried about Trump/Netanyahu attacking Iran, even though the first round of talks between Iran and the US ended on an optimistic note. Erdogan has trailblazed Arab countries last week, one of the primary objectives of the tour being to forge an alliance against the rising Israel paranoia.
Having written on January inflation and the general state of macro during the week, we say a little more on some of the issues that were mentioned therein in passing (e.g., January manufacturing PMI and January trade balance), revisit seasonally-adjusted January inflation data of Turkstat (which turned out quite a bit lower than our rough estimates this time around, though still pretty elevated nevertheless).
We also say a few words on the January cash budget (good), the recent macroprudential measures introduced by CBRT/BRSA (marginal impact), the recent CBRT appointments (long overdue yet welcome) and the latest Eurobond issue by the Treasury.
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