A New Ballgame

ARGENTINA - Forecast 04 Nov 2013 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano and Domingo Cavallo
Executive Summary President Cristina Kirchner’s chances of running for a third consecutive termare now nil, after midterm elections October 27th cut her party’s representation in Congress to 32%, from 54% in 2011. The political cycle of Kirchnerism is also over: the new Congress won’t pass the requisite constitutional reform. This new political makeup shrinks the president’s scope for imposing a political successor tied to the Kirchnerist project, given the dearth of viable candidates who enthusiastically support current policies. But the runup to a change in December 2015 will be anything ...

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