Politics: A New Electoral Outlook for 2018

MEXICO - Report 30 Jun 2016 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

GEA-ISA’s newest survey of voter preferences shows significant changes in the political-electoral landscape in the immediate wake of the elections that took place June 5. The public’s evaluation of President Enrique Peña and his administration is the worst seen in his three and a half years in office. A full 60% said they disapprove while only 35% said they approved of the president. The latest erosion of the president’s approval ratings, and his party's dismal showing in the last elections, appear to be due to his hands-off approach in matters of corruption.
Support for the governing PRI has also shrunk back to the party’s core loyalists (only 28% of citizens, exactly the same percentage of the electorate that identifies with the PRI, responded that the party should continue to govern as opposed to the 59% who believe that Mexico would be better off under another party), and none of its potential presidential nominees for 2018 are registering well in the polls. In contrast, the PAN’s victories in the elections three weeks ago repositioned that party in the next presidential contest, improved its image as a force capable of representing the interests of society and catapulted the party’s national Chairman Ricardo Anaya atop the polls. Three months ago the PRI was ahead of the PAN by 20 percentage points, a lead that has now shrunk to seven points. Support for the future presidential nominee of Morena, the party led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, grew from seven to 11 percentage points.
More ominously for the governing party, the 2018 presidential election might become the sort of referendum on PRI rule that it lost for the very first time in 2000, when it was turned out of office by the PAN presidential nominee.
In short, these changes in voter preferences point to a contest in which the PRI is growing weaker at a time when it is the target of public ire; should it fail to sort out this crisis, the strongest competitors in 2018 may prove to be the PAN and Morena nominees. In fact, if López Obrador should fail to adjust his campaign strategy and discourse, he may also find himself trailing Anaya.

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