​A note on domestic politics: Witch’s brew

TURKEY - In Brief 08 Jul 2021 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’ve spent a good part of the last week trying to make sense of domestic politics. There is unusually hectic activity and static electricity in the air, but it is very difficult to find a main thread, a narrative that would help me make sense of the divergent developments. I confess that I’ve failed.Turkish politics is a witch’s brew, where confusion and disintegration of the Erdogan system may be in progress, rather than a series of government or opposition-controlled events to achieve victory over the rival camp. Let me summarize the conclusion at the beginning, to save the reader the pain of reading the rest:With the Parliament going to recess on 15 July, I don’t anticipate any event that would be market-relevant until mid-autumn.The final settling of accounts could possibly start in autumn months.About this “longer-term” I shall express my views in the upcoming Quarterly Report. In this note, I am going to highlight names and events which may have a bearing in the coming clash. The biggest problem: Erdogan’s growing detachment from the realities of his nation and the economy: Erdogan refuses to understand that deepening poverty, corruption and high inflation are deeply hurting Turkey.He frequently makes factual mistakes in his speeches, such as the claim that Western nations charge Euro100 per Covid-9 vaccine. I have no evidence that his mental faculties are deteriorating. Instead, either he is ill-informed by his lieutenants, or he has been overburdened by the plethora of problems he needs to solve. Nevertheless, his detachment deepens the economic distress, as well as accelerating to migration of AKP voters to other destinations. Mafia don Mr. Sedat Peker: Rarely...