A prelude to 2025
For Turkey, the sudden regime change in Syria promises to be the primary source of uncertainty in 2025. The politics author predicts short term damage but magnificent mid- and long-term gains, where mid-term is defined as at least a year. Achieving the long sought after objective of completely dismantling the Syrian Kurdish proto-state and eliminating the terror threat is a significant political upside, with grabbing a major share of the reconstruction pie coming next. The uncertainty is the capacity of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham coalition to transition to a fair and lasting peace without an interregnum of bloody clashes among numerous factions.
The most promising upside is US President-elect Trump’s recent praise of President Erdogan, which heralds a more constructive dialogue with the US vis-à-vis the outgoing Biden administration. There are a large number of unresolved issues between the erstwhile strategic allies awaiting Trump 2.0. While it is not guaranteed that Trump will resolve these in a manner satisfactory to Turkey, having direct access to him is a considerable bonus.
The biggest downside remains domestic politics, where the primary objective of the AKP-MHP alliance of regaining eligibility for Erdogan is fraught with difficulties. While “a victory in Syria” could render the task somewhat easier, the inescapable conclusion of Erdogan being railroaded into an early election at an inopportune time for him remains the base-case scenario of the political analyst.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report