A quick econ data update
As we will not be publishing a weekly update this Sunday because of the elections, we are providing a quick rundown of the recent data releases today. As we noted in yesterday’s note, we shall update our audience on final election results on Monday.
April Industrial Production
Headline industrial production (IP) contracted by 1.4% in April, y/y, which, at 4%, y/y, was deeper in working-day adjusted terms. The drop was pretty broad-based, spread across all major sub-sectors, with, notably, capital and intermediate goods production clearly heading south (see chart). Production contracted over a month ago as well, by about 1%, after three consecutive months of expansion (see second chart). This drop was also reasonably broad-based, with 15 out of 24 sectors, we reckon, registering negative growth rates.
Because the IP series is notoriously volatile, we should not read too much into a single data point, but it looks like we’ve had a rather weak start into the second quarter, after 1.7% expansion in the first quarter, q/q (working day- and seasonally-adjusted), as the effects of the stimulus (state bank lending and budgetary spending) seem to be waning.
Now read on...
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