A second electoral round with a huge surprise

ECUADOR - In Brief 20 Aug 2023 by Magdalena Barreiro

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With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the Correistas, the results obtained by Daniel Noboa (close to 25%) come as a complete surprise as polls conducted in the last month placed him with a low 6% on average. He represents not only a different economic model from the one associated with Correistas, but he also offered the youngest voters an alternative to the past ways of doing politics and stood out in last Sunday's debate. Although we do not have results for the Assembly yet except for national legislators with a low percentage of votes counted, the difference between Gonzalez and the other candidates helps to forecast a result similar to that of 2020, with the Correistas capturing between 37% to 41% of legislators as they totally dominate Guayas and Manabi—two of the largest provinces in Ecuador. The remaining 60% will be dispersed, with the relative dominance of the political list of Fernando Villavicencio’s party, which might replace the seats captured by Pachakutik in the last election, followed by Social Christians as the main political forces. Although it is not certain Noboa will win the second round, he has a more favorable panorama than the Corresitas who, as said before, have reached their hard vote. Noboa—on the other hand—could easily capture around 24% additional votes, which are the sum of Otto Sonnenholzner’s and Fernando Villavicencio’s votes. But he will have to work hard and offer a sensible space of...