A tangled context for the second round
The controversy around the concession of Camp Sacha was not without grounds. The Canadian-Chinese consortium failed to come up with the $1.5 billion required to complete the agreement before the deadline of Tuesday, March 11, required by President Noboa. The next government will have to make a decision on the destiny of this camp. If Noboa wins, he most probably will seek to continue with the idea of the concession to the above-mentioned consortium or another, but Luisa Gonzalez has been clear in her intentions to keep the camp under the management of Petroecuador.
In addition, the second review of the agreement with the IMF programmed for March 15, has been postponed until after the election. Thus, the new disbursement of $400 million –if approved – might not arrive before next May.
The government is in great need of those disbursements at a time when nature has not given Ecuador a break since last September. Ecuador has gone from a severe drought last year to massive flooding in the coastal region. Additionally, the SOTE (the crude oil pipeline), which transports 65% of oil production, broke down last Thursday, forcing Petroecuador and private companies to temporarily close down approximately 300 wells until the problem is solved. Daily production has fallen by around 11,000 barrels per day, and immediate exports of Oriente crude are being delayed for 60 days, maintaining the schedule for exports of Napo.
In the political arena, the legal conflict with Vice President Abad continues undefined, although not favorable for Abad. The second-round campaign starts on Monday, March 23, when Noboa needs to have a clear legal status to face the campaign personally and forcefully in order to obtain the votes necessary for a narrow but decisive win on April 13.
Indigenous organizations from Cotopaxi, Chimborazo and the Amazon region have been making statements against the Correistas and in favor of Noboa. While this does not guarantee that those votes will go for the president, they are auspicious signs that the movement is divided and that the 500,000 votes obtained by Leonidas Iza will not go directly to Gonzalez.
Noboa may also benefit from the dust cloud raised by two legislators from Revolucion Ciudadana who proposed a dollarization “Ecuadorian Style”. The president quickly reacted, issuing an executive decree declaring the dollar the only official currency in Ecuador. At the same time a new corruption web involving Correistas, including former President Correa himself, is being prosecuted by the fiscal attorney and has gone viral on social media.
This is the tangled context in which President Noboa is preparing his participation in the presidential debate of next Sunday. If his presentation is as successful as in the debate in the first-round election of 2023, he could change the odds in his favor, despite claims from the Correistas that they are leading the polls for this year’s second round.
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