A tight race

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 23 Dec 2015 by Romeo Bernardo

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In recent days, three pollsters, seen generally as independent and trustworthy, published the results of their December surveys on voter preferences for the next President of the country. There are notable differences in the numbers especially in the one done by Pulse Asia, where VP Jejomar Binay zoomed up while Senator Grace Poe's score fell and lagged even that of latecomer Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. In comparison, the results of Laylo Research showed Senator Poe still in the lead (28%) but practically tied with VP Binay (23%), while those of SWS revealed the two garnering the same 26% share of the votes. Considering the margin of errors in these surveys (+/- 3%), the main conclusion one can draw from the latest numbers is that the race has gotten even tighter. At this point, it is still anybody's ballgame and for the most part, we think these numbers presage not so much the outcome of the 2016 election but upcoming events that will shape voters’ final choice. For one, political analysts have observed that given the mediocre ranking of administration candidate Mar Roxas, the party’s strategy so far has been to win by eliminating whoever is ahead. Hence, some have expressed fears that not only Senator Poe but Mayor Duterte will be disqualified by the Comelec. And with attention back on the VP, many now expect renewed attacks against him based on allegations and supposed evidence of past corruption. However, some analysts think that such moves, which will be read as political mudslinging, would only strengthen voter support for the VP, while weakening that for Secretary Roxas. Secondly, the drop in the scores of Senator Poe in two of the surveys, likely due to the Comelec'...