A trot not a gallop

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 01 Dec 2022 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

The strong external headwinds buffeting the country mean that its chances of galloping away from the pandemic have disappeared. It can nevertheless count itself lucky to have remittances and business process outsourcing supporting consumption. These two dollar earners have proven themselves relatively resilient to global shocks in the past and face promising prospects coming out of the pandemic. We expect these tailwinds fueling pent-up household spending to keep the economy on a trot.

This update on our economic outlook assesses the prospects for economic growth in the short term considering rising inflation and interest rates, funding pressures on the twin deficits (fiscal and current account), and leadership gaps and uncertainties.

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