Abinader (opposition) could be heading towards a first round victory in July 5

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 25 Jun 2020 by Pavel Isa

---

In the last three days, the three most reputable polling firms in the country published the results of their most recent polls on electoral preference and all indicate that Luís Abinader (PRM and allies) could be heading towards a first round victory in the July 5 elections. All the surveys were carried out from mid-June on and suggest that electoral preferences were not definitively affected by COVID-19. Gallup-Hoy found that 54% of decided voters will vote for Abinader, 36% for Gonzalo Castillo (PLD and allies) and 9% for former President Leonel Fernández (FP and allies). Although it found that 24% of the voters were undecided, by adding to the decided voters the inclination of the undecided, the result was that Abinader would get 48% of the votes and Castillo 36%, Greenberg-Diario Libre (GDL) estimated that 56% of likely voters will vote for Abinader, 29% for Castillo and 12% for Fernández. Lastly, Mark Penn / Stagwell (MPS) found that 47% will vote for Abinader, 35% for Castillo and 11% for Fernández. These results contrast with those of its last work published in May, which spoke of a virtual tie between Abinader and Castillo with near 40% each. Unlike the rest, including the June MSP, this April survey was conducted over the phone, which could have introduced significant biases. A simple average of the three surveys indicates that Abinader would obtain between 50% and 52% of the votes, Castillo would obtain 33% and Fernández 11%. All of them also found that Abinader would easily defeat Castillo in a second round.