Abinader’s first-round reelection prospects strengthen

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 17 May 2024 by Magdalena Lizardo

The latest polls in the runup to the May 19th national elections indicate that President Luis Abinader will be reelected in the first round, with at least 60% of voters polled saying they planned to vote for him. After the overwhelming victory of the official PRM party in the February 18th municipal elections, Abinader’s re-election prospects have only strengthened.

Although the Central Bank has yet to release data on March 2024 economic activity growth, some indicators seem to show that growth was less robust than in February. Monthly inflation was negative in April, and y/y inflation was close to 3%. For the first time since January 2021, core inflation in y/y terms is below 4%.

The exchange rate, after appreciating in April, began May by rising. Net international reserves fell less than in April, compared to previous months. The trade deficit is estimated to have improved in March, with goods imports falling less than goods exports.

Government spending continued to rise faster than income. But the central government's deficit remains in line with its planned numbers, and in January-April 2024 stood at 18.2% of the total 2024 planned deficit.

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