​About elections, mobbing and fractures

TURKEY - In Brief 24 Apr 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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The message of this Market Brief can be summarized in 2 sentences. The verdict on Istanbul elections will lag to next week, with no change in my prediction that with 60-70% odds Erdogan will concede defeat. There are several fractures in AKP, while the mobbing of CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu heralds a transitional period in Turkish politics accompanied with much instability. High Election Council (HEC) handed down interim decisions on 9 AKP-MHP challenges to the Istanbul results, striking down one, while instructing the provincial councils to probe the remaining 8 within 5 business days. The verdict is neutral vis-à-vis my prediction, in the sense that outright rejection of AKP-MHP appeal would have placed HEC under unbearable scrutiny. I still base my prediction on the visible unwillingness of Erdogan and Binali Yildirim to campaign actively to have the election overturned, as well as leaks from Saturday’s close-doors AKP top-level get-together where Erdogan is alleged to have outlined astrategy to obstruct CHP candidate and mayor elect Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu, rather than urging resistance. With each day Imamoglu occupies the mayoral post, risks of overturning the election mount, led by street unrest (see next paragraph) and an attack on the currency. CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his delegation were mobbed during the funeral of a martyr, barely escaping death or severe bodily injury.This event has several dimensions which can’t be analyzed fully in the scope of a Market Brief, however a few points need to be made immediately. Kilicdaroglu is a member of the minority Alevi church (denomination, sect), who are pacifists but the newly urbanized, left-wing youth is bein...