Activity: Far From a Sustained Recovery

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 15 Sep 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

The proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank (IBC-Br) for July rose by 1.5% in relation to June (Graph 1). This was an impressive result, leaving a carry-over of 0.3% to the third quarter. At first glance this might suggest an inflection point in the economic activity trend line. However, this is not the conclusion that can be gathered from a more detailed analysis of this and other indicators. First, the rise of 1,5% of the July IBC-Br only offset the decline in the previous month (Graph 1), putting the monthly GDP proxy at the same level as during the first three months of the previous year. Second, the interpretation of no visible recovery is reaffirmed by the data for real retail sales and the labor market.

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