Afghanistan after America: Consequences for Russia and Central Asia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 29 Jul 2020 by Alex Teddy and Alexei Panin

The US is leaving Afghanistan after battling for 19 largely fruitless years. What next? American withdrawal is largely the only certainty here. U.S. President Trump is determined to pull out and has never wavered on this. Almost no one criticizes him for his intention to bring all the troops home from this country.

Afghanistan has virtually no exploited natural resources (although it has some deposits), it is mostly mountainous desert and it is landlocked. It is staggering that so much blood has been spilled over one of the poorest countries on earth.

The Afghan government is negotiating with the Taliban. The US government is also in talks with the Taliban. The Taliban controls half the country but none of the main cities. The big question is: has peace finally arrived? It could be that the Taliban metamorphoses into just another political party. However, it is more than possible that there is no smooth transition. The Taliban or at least a faction thereof might refuse to accept the new dispensation.

In this report, we analyze the implications for the former Soviet region and examine different scenarios.

Now read on...

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