After-resignation review: risks of military conflict remain high

UKRAINE - In Brief 29 Jan 2014 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Resignation of prime minister and cancelled dictatorship laws allowed to breathe freely to society for a while. In fact, yesterday the country stepped back from abyss. For January 28 everyone anticipated state of emergency to be voted in which under current tension would be the official start of civil war. In fact, protesters perceived new session of Verkhovna Rada nothing but as a new trick of the ruling group. Still after short period of positive emotions it became clear that the situation did not improve much. Opposition leaders and Maidan commanders were quite restrained in their comments. In light of traditional behavior of Viktor Yanukovitch and hawking wing of the ruling group (led by Andrey Klyuyev) protesters do not rush to celebrate even this achievement. Indeed, after Azarov resignation acting prime minister was appointed Sergey Arbozov who is affiliated with Yankovitch family. According to the laws he will be temporarily ruling the Cabinet over the next 60 days. Under current events it is more than enough to stall for time. At the same time it is not clear who might be the next prime-minister. Opposition rightly is cautious to start playing this game demanding change of Constitution first which should make prime-minister an independent player able to appoint members of the Cabinet. Otherwise it does not make sense to take responsibility without having real authorities. Still this demand does not look to have support at the ruling group so far. To make matters worse, actions of police against activists did not stop even for a flash. People report ‘law enforcement bodies’ keep tracing active participants which does not promise anything good. What more, the Ca...