Ahead of Today's Election Results

PERU - In Brief 05 Jun 2016 by Roberto Abusada

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During the very last days of the campaign we have seen a rapid climb in the vote intention in favor of Kuczynski. They are now neck and neck and given an error margin of 2-3 pp up or down, it will be difficult to draw a meaningful conclusion early on just by assessing exit polls. Later in the evening the networks will start airing results of the so-called ‘quick count’ based on actual random ballot counting, but the data will continue to be inconclusive in a tight race given the normal delay for results in rural areas and those of residents abroad in reaching the headquarters of the electoral body in Lima.A Fujimori triumph after her Party obtained 56% of the congressional seats should buttresses governance, but this time many fear the risk that a government without enough checks and balances could lead to power abuses similar to those seen during her father Alberto Fujimori's 10-year tenure. Barring the very tactful governmental management, Keiko, who will likely lack media support and facing a virulent left could have a hard time confronting ‘street politics’.If Kuczynski manages to win, he would have to move quickly to cement alliances in Congress, where he commands a force of just 14% of seats, to avoid a stalemate and the ability to pass needed reforms. However we think that despite a long and very vicious campaign, Kuczynski and his natural ability to negotiate could work out with the opposition the basic conditions to avoid paralysis. After all both candidates' economic plans are market friendly and both are aware that a protracted confrontation between the Executive and Congress is likely to result in the rise of the anti system left.