AKP divided: Coalition or third election?

TURKEY - In Brief 27 Oct 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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I received another query from an esteemed reader, which asks: “Today I saw some news on Bloomberg quoting Mehmet Sahin and Ismet Yilmaz putting some risk on the possibility of a coalition involving the AKP. I would like to know if you think that the AKP will want to form a government with another party are we could face a hard negotiation process like the last one (since it can face some resistance from some member of the party like Erdoğan)”. Indeed, I read that Mr. Sahin, one of the most experienced names in AKP, is suggesting a third set of elections may be necessary, if AKP is just short of the requisite 276 seats to form a single party government. On the other hand, there was another news item from Bloomberg, linked here, which suggests AKP is getting ready to initiate honest-to-God coalition negotiations with CHP. Where do we stand? In fact both viewpoints contain kernels of truth. Mr. Sahin and most AKP members are duly influenced by their own polling agencies which project that the party is very close to securing enough seats to form a single party government. I sense there is debate within AKP, where those close to Erdogan want to try for a third election, in case AKP scores (for example) 270 deputies, or try to recruit the difference from other parties. The opposite faction led by the likes of Ali Babacan and Premier Davutoglu would prefer to form a coalition if AKP finds itself in the described situation. I really can’t tell you who will win that debate if AKP is indeed very close to a simple majority. I feel that it will exacerbate the existing fractures in the party and may lead to a split. I also sense that names like Babacan and Simsek know full well tha...